So we know that the American response to COVID-19 has been bad. Competing for the Darwin awards bad. The only first world countries that have a higher per-capita infection rate are Spain, Belgium and Iceland, all of which have a significantly fewer new cases per day today compared to their peak infection rate.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (Click on the countries to the left to see how many new cases are reported compared to the peak)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html (Change view to per capita cases)
Evidence of the continued spread in the USA can be seen in the rising of cases outside of NY.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-cases-united-states.html This also takes into account the testing rate, since new deaths are dropping in NY, yet the rest of the countries total deaths remains nearly constant.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html (scroll down to reported deaths).
vs
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html (scroll down to reported deaths).
Since there is a lag in data, about 1-2 weeks for new detected cases and 4 weeks for deaths, it means that the non-NY social distancing measures between ~4/10-4/24 were insufficient to control the spread of the virus. With the loosening of state restrictions, it means the R0 number today will be higher than it was in the two weeks of 4/10-4/24, meaning there will be more new infections per day outside of NYC in 1-2 weeks then there are today.
So, what does this mean? The US may "flatten" the curve, but not control the spread of the virus. In other words, the virus will continue to spread for the foreseeable future in an uncontrolled fashion (with an R0 value very close to 1 meaning daily new cases/death counts remain mostly the same). That doesn't necessarily mean there will be another spike in infections (although that is possible).
Why is this? Well, here are the key differences between the USA and (most) other first world countries
- Lack national contact tracing program
- Insufficient testing - especially for rural communities
- Insufficient PPE for hospitals and essential workers
- Lack of national quarantine plan
- A desire by a minority (~5-10% of the population - anti-vaxxers and the like) to ignore most safety recommendations (masks, no visiting family, etc) - and no repercussions if safety recommendations are ignored
- Reopening Super-spreader locations (Churches, factories, and salons) where spread can continue even with
- A refusal by top leadership (Trump Administration) to coordinate an international response - Reduces the ability of countries to coordinate responses such as short term travel bans to hotspots, share PPE, share ventilators, share information, etc.
- A refusal of top leadership (Trump Administration) to coordinate an national response - Reduces state-by-state differences and leverages the best scientists to create a baseline plan for the country.
- Growing partisanship about the response creating a lack of a response (mostly noticeable in mask wearing). This increases the spread as many anti-vaxxer types see wearing a mask/social distancing as a "liberal" issue rather than a "national" issue, meaning the virus spreads more.
There are a lot of big economies (France, Germany, China, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Australia, Switzerland, Spain, Netherlands, and Turkey) that have reduced the number of new infections to controllable levels.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (Click on the country in the left pane and click on the daily cases in the bottom right window).
Since the new infection rate is low, that means if they determine a person is infected, they can perform contact tracing on that person, determine who they were in close contact with, and then quarantine everybody who they were in close contact with. This can reduce the number of new infections by a significant amount (I'm guessing reducing the likelihood of another infection by 75% - bringing the R0 value down significantly below 1) without social distancing efforts. There is no indication that the US will have any of this type of capability for at least 3 months. Probably closer to 6. The issue being a lack of national leadership. States may implement this, but many slow states such as Florida, Georgia, North Dakota, Kansas may not have the resources or political will to get something like this going quickly.
Okay, so what does all this mean for businesses and stocks and investments.
If you live in one of these countries where new infection rate are low with contact tracing, you are free to go out and spend money without worrying about getting infected. Higher confidence = higher spending. Additionally, these countries are going to be looking to fully re-open their economies (football games, bars, casinos, etc). With that, they'll be stuck between two options. One, keep their economy open to the US and risk a new outbreak (and thus the economic hit) or close their economy to the US and take the economic hit until the US gets the virus under control. Essentially, a travel ban of people traveling from the US (and other countries that don't have the virus under control - Russia, Canada, UK, etc in that list) could be possible.
Another affect of this, which is more important for us, if the US has an uncontrolled spread of the virus, that means factories will be shut down at random (as an outbreak occurs in a factory) in the US for a period of 3-6 months where other country's factories are humming along. With a reduced demand rate, that creates a huge competitive advantage for other countries to provide reliable supply. That means that buyers of products will look for alternative supplies outside of US. This means that big businesses such as GM, BA, F, GE, etc lose long-term market share to competitors in other countries. This can hit other places such as entertainment where no new US movies are produced, and no US sports are produced.
To me, this points to not just a slow L shaped recovery. It means that the GDP of the USA will be lower in 2021-22 than it was in 2019. Other countries (Japan, China, South Korea) could see a full recovery by the beginning of 2021.
Tell me I'm wrong. I really want to know if I'm completely off base here.
Hey guys,
I started noticing some of you guys are PMing me more and more often regarding Monaco and the tickets/grandstands for the F1 GP therefore I decided to write up some lines that I hope may help you in your choice.
For an optimal viewing experience of this post I recommend you downloading the free Chrome or Firefox extension
Imagus.
Notice I am in no way affiliated to F1 or any ticketing site anymore therefore you won’t find any affiliate links or referrals or whatever. Do you research, compare prices yourself and if you have any doubts regarding a website legitimacy don’t hesitate to let me know.
But first, a quick overview on the ticketing world: a common misconception is that Formula One Management aka FOM (the company based in London and responsible for the organization of the F1 GP, subsidiary of the Formula One Group) is the entity that manages the sales of tickets you buy online or at the track. They own
F1.com and sell tickets via that website but the truth is they have very marginal control over the tickets’ business.
The tracks (or better the ownership or the management of the tracks, most commonly referred to as “organizers”) are the one that build up grandstands, set prices, print and sell tickets. The official website of the track is in most of the cases the official website for the tickets, where tickets are sold at face value. Availability is in most cases reflected in real time, and when a tribune is full either it can be expanded in a new section or replenished because third party resellers return some of the tickets they optioned before the beginning of the season.
Third party resellers instead are the game-definers of the industry. I won’t go into too much details right now as this is not the purpose of the post, but if this is a topic you would like to hear more about I am happy to create another post and describe in length how tickets are effectively commodities whose value fluctuates in the 12 months before the race and some other curious insights regarding the industry.
Coming back to Monaco, the official organizer’s website is ACM.MC.
They have a small boutique in Rue Grimaldi and you can visit the lovely staff; they will give you an overview of the tickets which are left and show you prices. I won’t lie, this GP is uber-expensive and I am not sure it is in most cases worth the investment: general admission is pricey and generally not a wonderful pick to see the track, grandstands have small angles and screens are scarce. But you also come to Monaco for the atmosphere, the people around the small city that buzzes and thrives in a wonderful season. Personally, either I get my tickets for free or just go to the Irish pub and watch it there. Last year I was at the Red Bull energy station and it was an extremely fun experience, wish I could go back - maybe Red Bull sees this and sends me passes to go kiss Max on the forehead.
Last year Thursday party.
Let me start my “virtual” tour of the circuit from the starting grid - Sector X1 and X2 + Restaurants
This is a view from the garages and facing where the grandstands will be positioned. All along the way there are restaurants with little private tribunes. On this boulevard there are also most of the apartment buildings you may be seeing on sale.
This is one of the very few races in which I do not recommend getting a ticket on the starting grid. the reason why I say so is that while you get all the action of the preparation on Sunday and you can see your heroes and fancy celebrities from close-up, you won’t be able to see much else on the rest of the day and weekend. Seats in X1 and X2 sections do not have a screen and therefore you will only be able to glimpse a few seconds to the car passing by at crazy speeds. You won’t know what is happening on the track on the other side and would have to only rely on the live commentary (done for this purpose in Monaco). Consider that for Monaco you won’t also be able to see the pits, as they are located facing the Rascasse complex and therefore you will only be able to see the garage from behind and not the pit-stops.
Also, fun fact is that Monaco cannot offer F1 Vision devices (don’t know if this changed, and apologies for that) because of privacy and data retention laws not being aligned with the EU.
Restaurants like Planet Sushi, Edgar, Italiagliani may have small tribunes and fixed menus but not much changes. There are tons of restaurants all along the circuit offering menus and viewing spots and they range from less than 100 EUR from a brasserie to about 800-1000 or something.
On the Albert I street you have the best and largest supermarket on this side of Monaco (Casino Supermarket - fitting name for the town but absolutely random as it’s a French chain) that sells affordable food and drinks, free sandwiches, sushi, pizza with no prices increase. Also 90% of tickets collection booths (
F1.com and main resellers) are around rue Princess Antoinette which is in this area.
We then move on to Saint Devote corner - here we find Sectors A1, A and Z1.
This is a terrible picture of the section but they already put up the barriers so I couldn’t get past.
This corner is one of those in which you find the most action on Sunday and you may witness cars getting out of the pit lane and joining the circuit, but no much more than that. There are no screens and you will only be able to see cars in this section. Sector Z1 is the general admission area inside the circuit and generally speaking one of those that sells the fastest. While it goes without saying that you should go early in the morning and secure a spot, the sector has a nice view of cars entering the Bureau de tabac and the pool complex.
Check out this short video i took last year while inspecting the grandstand.
Some pictures of the Z1 area from above too. This is were it will be created a closed pedestrian area with bars and entertainment. Very small but very close to the track.
Climbing up to the Casino we arrive to probably the most iconic view of the circuit - Sector B
Picture of the casino from the front, the grandstand will be facing this direction.
The Casino grandstand is together with the V section the most expensive grandstands of the circuit. A “gold” pass for 3 days would set you to something like 1300 EUR (fun fact: I invented Gold/SilveTop sections and was the first to introduce them to the market but this is another story). In Monaco the Gold section of the grandstand is the top row - alongside the tickets you get a hat, lanyards, ticket holder, earplugs, some fancy bags, a private pit-walk (shared with rest of Gold holders) and some other small perks. The Silver section is the same thing but 2nd, 3rd and sometimes 4th row. They can also be privileged sections regardless of row, for example right top side of sector K1 in the pool complex.
The B grandstand has great view on the cars, you have a screen and easy access, while i heard you don’t have many toilets. Around there are the Cafe de Paris and the Louis XV with fixed menus and terraces to watch the race). I recommend it if you won’t end up in the low section and if you have cash to spare. My suggestion is always to stay here at least on Thursday when it’s cheaper and then move to top T sector (my favorite) for the race.
Passing the Fairmont hotel famous hairpin - they got good seats if you are staying at the hotel on the roof or if you have a room - you end at the entrance of the tunnel in Sector C.
Here is an idea of the rooms overlooking the hairpin.
And here a view from the C grandstand.
Just as A and A1, you see some action and you may end up seeing some battles but you won’t have a screen and you are pretty much isolated from the rest of the circuit. You are also super far away from the rest of the track so plan ahead distances! I have seen tons of people missing the race because they thought they could get to the train station and then back to sector C after having collected their tickets half an hour before the race. Allow 1 hour to walk end to end, and expect tons of lines everywhere, especially at elevators in the central station.
You will find me in this section with a booked table at the Irish pub, away from the casuals.
Going through the tunnel you will find another chicane for which you can’t buy tickets (only journalists there) and soon enter the Bureau de Tabac, Sector K1 to K6 or 8.
This is what cars see when coming out of the tunnel and past the chicane,
about to enter the complex.
And this is the complex.
I say 6 or 8 as sometimes they open additional sectors according to demand.
This is an example of sector to avoid, the very last one.
Despite what you see online, Monaco is never sold out; the day of the race DO NOT GO TO STREET SELLERS for any reason, always go to the official boutique, you will find tickets which went unsold and that got reopened. Street seller can literally just photo-copy the ticket and sell it to you as they don’t have scanners or barcodes in Monaco therefore access control is a mess and you will end up fist fighting on the grandstand. There was an old trick in Monaco GA exploited for years that allowed people to get tens of friends in the stand without paying but I don’t want to give you rascal any ideas.
Sector K1 in the upper section is definitely the best solution, but it’s far from being perfect. The screen is on top of the hill and just like 90% of Monaco grandstands it is not wheelchair accessible and doesn’t have a cover. This means if weather is extremely hot or it rains you won’t have shelter. Also, umbrellas are sold but forbidden on grandstands, gotta buy a poncho. Sections in the lower rows are also very good as when car do the “curve” they get very close to the barriers and if you are too high you won’t be able to see them. They are building a parking underneath and they are changing a lot of the layout I am used to, therefore be careful and ask the organizer.
Here a panoramic shot to make you understand how far it is. It is readable but you will have to squint your eyes a bit.
On the way from the tunnel to the K section you will see lots of yachts docked there. If you have the finances that allow you to book a viewing spot on a yacht, this is where you will most likely be docked (be it F1 Experiences with lunch at the Maree restaurant, private owner or in my case the owner of the YAS Marina circuit’s yacht). For yachts I always mention same thing to everybody: you go there to get drunk, to clumsy flirt on models, to hang out with celebrities and celebrity-wannabe, maybe be offered a drink to Raikkonen’s friends, but certainly not to watch the race. The cars go insanely fast in this part of the track and you will only glimpse at them.
Here is the yacht section just after the Yacht Club.
Here is a pic I took last year after the race at the traditional’s Thursday panel aboard Yas Marina's owner's yacht.
Sector M deserves a special mention as perhaps the worst of the whole circuit, since it is very low and you basically don’t see the screen. This is usually reserved for relatives of the organizers or special guests which don’t make it to the main tower where the royal family is.
Where the danger sign is there will be the grandstand.
You then enter my favorite grandstand for Saturday, the N - O - P pool complex.
Here is a side view of the complex.
I say it’s my favorite on Saturday as from the top of O section you may see both the entrance of the pool and the exit. You will have a nice screen to watch the race and you will be able to get there via a narrow bridge in the harbor. The sun will be in front of you so watch out and bring a hat.
This is the view facing the grandstand.
You will then see on the right the L sector and the T sector on the right.
Please please do not take low seats! The T and L sections (especially T1) have a great view of the pits and if you are too low you will be below the roof of the Brasserie de Monaco and won’t be able to see any action. You will have a screen but will only see cars when they will be 2 meters from you. My pick is highest section of T1 sector, the best in terms of price and what you get out of it. If you manage and can afford, check that. If you can afford even more, go to Belvedere which is the hospitality of the circuit.
L sector, you may also notice they are building the Belvedere on top.
This a panoramic view of the Brasserie and L sectors.
And this is the T1 section.
Before getting to the Rascasse section, a special mention to the Paddock Club in Monaco. Being one of the most expensive on the calendar, you would expect crazy facilities, stunning services and entertainment and a crazy good position. Which I am not saying you find, but you need to consider that compared to other circuits the Paddock Club is NOT located on the main straight and not even directly on the track. I have been to many Paddock Clubs as Monaco definitely has some issues with space while facilities and services are top notch. They lower the attendance to make it livable for everybody, but you are a bit far from the track and you will not have the best view of the cars once they go around the Rascasse. The company that takes care of the Paddock Club is called Do.Co. and they are very very nice people, the atmosphere is a bit stock up but considering the crowd they need to be flawless. BTW my favorite Paddock Club was Abu Dhabi!
There is nothing now but imagine the Paddock Club to be placed here just behind the parking.
Coming back to the Rascasse section, you have sector V and the Rascasse bar.
The sector V is a very well located grandstand directly facing the last chicane, with a clear view of the grid and a screen in front of you. very expensive but you are very close and it’s very convenient to visit the pits when you will have your pit walk (only 2 and 3 days ticket holders usually can attend the pit walk).
Section V from the side and pit entrance.
The Rascasse instead usually get immediately fully booked as it has a very good location on the chicane (it IS the chicane) and very good food and drinks options. Expensive as you would expect, maybe check it out on Thursday as an alternative to sector B or to the lower end apartments (the price for an open-bar, canapè fueled terrace on Thursday is about 250 EUR).
Rascasse building with terrace.
And with the
General Admission we terminate our ride. As mentioned before, not the best general admission area if it rains or if it’s overcrowded; don’t remember the exact number but capacity was greatly reduced in the last years for this reason. It is relatively affordable but hey, I guess you get to experience Monaco on a budget.
Here some
extra shots of the
garage and
panoramic shots of the rascasse complex.
And here a link to a 4K video I shot some weeks ago without traffic.
I hope above helped and should you be interested in receiving more tips regarding Monaco GP, as well as some other guides on tickets and insights of the industry, do not hesitate to ask! As mentioned I am not selling anything so don’t ask me for discount and stuff, I can only point you in the right direction and maybe save you some cash.
And as said feel free to join me at the Irish pub next to the track, I’ll be there and maybe later attend the Sunset Monaco party at the Meridien hotel. Hope you guys didn’t get too bored of all my writing and apologies for the my English!
Monaco GP complex from the Cinema.
Marshall party everyone.
Here is the whole album if you want to see more.
Here are all the official websites:
Australia
https://www.grandprix.com.au/ Bahrain
https://www.bahraingp.com/ China
http://www.jussevent.com/ Baku
https://www.bakucitycircuit.com/ Spain
https://www.circuitcat.com/en/formula-1/tickets/ Canada
https://www.gpcanada.ca/en/ France
https://www.gpfrance.com/en/official-ticketing/ Austria
https://gpticketshop.com/en/index.html Silverstone
https://www.silverstone.co.uk/events/2019-formula-1-british-grand-prix/ Germany
http://www.hockenheimring.de/en/ticketshop Hungary
https://gpticketshop.com/en/f1/f1-grand-prix-ungarn-2019/tickets.html Belgium
https://www.spagrandprix.com/en/ Italy
https://www.monzanet.it/ Singapore
http://www.singaporegp.sg/ Russia
https://sochiautodrom.ru/en Japan
https://www.suzukacircuit.jp/f1_en/ticket/ Mexico
https://www.mexicogp.mx/informacion/boletos/ USA
http://www.circuitoftheamericas.com/2019-f1 or my boi/gurl
u/circuitoftheamericas Brazil
https://www.gpbrasil.com.ben-us/ingressos?tipo=arquibancadas Abu Dhabi
https://www.yasmarinacircuit.com/en
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