Welcome to the Official NFL Power Rankings! From initial odds stacked against a full season to a successfully completed week 17, please take a second to reflect on these great months of football. We'd like to thank everyone involved with making the unlikely a reality, and also all who read and contribute to these ever improving rankings. 18th try is the charm, right? Discuss! 30/32 reporting

#	Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.	Chiefs	--	14-2	Somehow, the Chiefs found a way to meaningfully lose in a game the outcome didn't matter in. Willie Gay Jr, Rashod Fenton, and DeAndre Baker all got injured with the first two players having significant roles on the offense when the starters are playing. Baker, who was a major part of the Chiefs' plans in the secondary in 2021, also broke his leg. On the positive sign Chad Henne got his first TD in 6 years and Darwin Thompson had a nice day for himself. The Chiefs now will wait and see who they play from wildcard weekend and will need to bring their A-game in a tough AFC to repeat as champions.
2.	Bills	--	13-3	The Bills starters played the first half of this game, with backups getting the second. They each put up 28 points. Miami put up 26 in the whole game. Talk about an extra shot of confidence heading into the playoffs. A 56 point outing is huge against any team, but Miami came in with the number one scoring defense in football (although it didn’t help that the Dolphins offense couldn’t stay on the field). This is a team that isn’t just winning games, they’re blowing people out. If you’re any other team in the AFC, the Buffalo Bills are just about the last team you wanna see right now. There could be a deep playoff run in store, and for the first time in 30 years, Marv Levy’s words are again relevant: where else would you rather be than right here, right now?
3.	Packers	--	13-3	We may have lost Bakh, but didn't seem to hinder the Packers too much in Chicago. 1 seed is clinched, Davante Adams clinched a share of the franchise receiving TD record, and Rodgers all but clinched his 3rd MVP. The NFC runs through the Frozen Tundra this year.
4.	Saints	--	12-4	The Saints head to the playoffs for another year, with efficiency being the key measure of success for this team. A top 5 defense in every yardage and scoring metric has done its job while the offense has used the ball well to keep the scoreboard ticking over. Season 2020 has so far been a success for the team, but as every Saints fan knows, the bounce of the ball is what matters in seeking the Philosopher's Stone of the Lombardi Trophy.
5.	Seahawks	--	12-4	Might be sounding like a broken record at this point, but maaaaaan this team needs to improve on offense. It's the playoffs, and this team is certainly capable of getting hot and going on an epic postseason run, but it's gotta see improvement on offense. Russ hasn't been the same, throwing 28 touchdowns in the first 8 weeks of the season, opposed to 12 in the final 8. The defense has seen major improvement, able to generate pressure and get to opposing quarterbacks as of late. With weapons on offense that include the duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, a sputtering offense is simply inexcusable. Hopefully the Seahawks can put things together and end the Rams season tis weekend.
6.	Ravens	+1	11-5	404 yards is the fourth most for a single-game, team-wide. Lamar Jackson is also the first QB with two 1000 yard rushing seasons. The team is rolling over bad teams and can run against bad defenses. Defense better get healthy in time for the playoffs, because there's 3 offenses in the playoffs that have already hung 34+ on this team, and another one will definitely be able to cross that threshold. Can Lamar finally win a playoff game? Harbaugh's Ravens are always good on the road...
7.	Buccaneers	+1	11-5	Any talk of a close game was thrown out the window when Atlanta gave up a healthy 21 points in the fourth quarter. Concerns of Tom Brady's arm staying effective late into the season are louder than ever, as he failed to throw for 400 yards for the 17th time this season.
8.	Steelers	-2	12-4	Unfortunately for the valiant, upstart Dolphins, the Steelers decided to send Mason Rudolph out there to the Dawgs. Somehow, in classic 2020 fashion, the Steelers had a chance to send the game into overtime, but fell short. It was a familiar sight for Steelers fans to see that the team can fall way behind and come back regardless of who is at QB. And lose. Or not. Who the hell knows? Playing Cleveland in back to back weeks looks like exactly what the team wanted. But be careful what you wish for...you just might get it.
9.	Titans	--	11-5	On Sunday, the Titans became the first NFL franchise to have two 2,000 rushers (and only franchise with 3 over 1,900) with Derrick Henry's 250 yard performance in the franchise's original city. Every game moving forward will be a question of the offense outscoring a turnstile defense.
10.	Colts	--	11-5	The Colts are in the playoffs, and though a tough trip to Buffalo awaits it's hard not to feel optimistic as a fan. The coupe de grace of this crazy season was the redemption of Jonathan Taylor, a player prematurely written off as a bust after a few weeks. Even Derrick Henry gave props to the player who put the team on his back and carried the Colts to victory on Sunday. After everything this year and amidst the ongoing pandemic, one is reminded is that sports boil down the big challenges in life into discrete, relatively meaningless objectives. We all have points in our lives where people doubt us. With fortune, we're given an opportunity to prove those people wrong. It's just in sports, sometimes you can do that by literally running the doubters into submission. The future is bright, one has to believe.
11.	Browns	--	11-5	After almost two decades, the Browns playoff drought is over. With the first 11 win record since 1994 the Browns will face the Steelers again in a Sunday night Wild Card match up. Playing Pittsburgh in back to back weeks looks like exactly what the team was going to have to do, and the are ready. Go Browns! COVID UPDATE: GODDAMN IT!
12.	Rams	+1	10-6	The Wolf of Ball Street, John Wolford, was a breath of fresh air with his mobility, but the result of any QB controversy might not be the cure to an anemic offense that has failed to score a TD since week 15. It’s the defense that got them to the playoffs, and it will have to be the defense again to win a playoff game. If the offense can get back to earlier season form, the Rams have a chance to make a run.
13.	Dolphins	-1	10-6	The Dolphins are a good, but flawed team, however with the third pick in the draft, they're in a prime situation to fix those flaws in 2021. The year ended poorly, but they finished better than anyone expected for the 2nd straight season, and going forward playoffs should be expected from this team for the next few years. The Dolphins have a lot to look forward to and a lot of reasons to believe that things will work out.
14.	Bears	--	8-8	The Bears' "resurgent, job-saving" offense scored an impressive 16 points. Trubisky went 2-7 with one INT on pass attempts of more than 6 yards; the offense scored one touchdown in five red zone trips; and an Amber Alert went out for Allen Robinson who went missing during the game.
15.	Cardinals	--	8-8	Sure the Cardinals improved in 2020, but the regression really showed in the second half of the season. There will be a lot of questions in the offseason regarding just how they missed the postseason and the blown opportunities. They wouldn't have done much in the postseason anyway and should be asking themselves how to position themselves to be ready next year.
16.	Raiders	--	8-8	In the only meaningless game of the year the Raiders beat the Broncos after going for and converting a 2-point conversion, the same way they lost to the Broncos at the end of last season. The Raiders finish 8-8 this season, bringing the Raiders non-losing season total up to 4 since the 2002-2003 season. As always, there's always next year.
17.	Washington FT	--	7-9	Well, The Washington Football Team is king of trash mountain and while they're NFC EAST champs at 7-9 they don't need to apologize to anybody. If they maintain the level of play they put on the field during their 4 win stretch and 5 out of their final 7 they can play with anybody. Their biggest issue however remains their offense and Alex Smith's lack of mobility. 17-20 points won't get it done against the offensive powerhouses of the league. Despite the still existent flaws, Ron Rivera in one year has done so much to change the culture and bring some respect back to this franchise and who knows what they could accomplish over the course of his tenure. And as a cherry on top, Chase Young came up big again in the most important game of the season cementing his Defensive Rookie of the Year status.
18.	Vikings	--	7-9	Justin Jefferson broke the NFL record for rookie receiving yards, with his final 133-yard game putting an exclamation mark on a year where he ranks first among all WRs in DVOA, second in PFF grade, second in yard per route run and first in yards over expected. A 7-9 finish for Minnesota is undoubtedly disappointing, but Jefferson and the rest of the Vikings' rookie class, together with hope for better injury luck, give Vikings fans plenty of reason to be more optimistic heading into next year.
19.	Chargers	+1	7-9	Facing KC's backups on the grounds of Arrowhead Stadium, the Chargers took their last game of the 2020 season and ran away with it, coming up with their 4th straight win and finishing the season at 7-9. Justin Herbert has now broken too many records to count, and came up just short of the rookie season passing yards record. Very safe to say he's going to win OROY and now has to focus on continuing to improve in the coming seasons. There were about an equal number of bright spots and big problems this season, but something that can be said for sure about this team is that it continues to be very close to dangerous but is still missing the right stuff. Potential moves in coaching, free agency and the draft will attempt to find the answers the Chargers need as they prepare for a playoff push in 2021.
20.	49ers	-1	6-10	Squandering a 10 point lead to lose to the Seahawks puts an end to this tumultuous season for the 49ers. Heading back to the Bay area after injuries and exile defined this season, more changes loom as their Defensive Coordinator takes head coaching interviews.
21.	Patriots	+2	7-9	The 2020 Patriots campaign ends on a hopeful, but uncertain note as we are reminded that sweeping the Jets remains one of life's great pleasures. For 2021, the Patriots are headed into offseason in rebuild mode once again, and seemingly with a new face at QB for the second year in a row. 7-9 is pretty disappointing after recent Patriots' success but with FA losses, opt-outs, Covid scratches and some close ass losses the 2020 Patriots fought hard, wringing every last bit out this roster. Watching the Playoffs without the Patriots is a bummer we pray will be rare.
22.	Giants	+3	6-10	In a season full of highs and lows, most Giants fans can walk away from 2020 feeling better about their HC than they have in a long, long time. That said, they have nobody to blame but themselves for missing out on the playoffs. Giants fans everywhere will take the feeling of beating the Cowboys over a higher draft pick 10 out of 10 times. Now we look forward as the team tries to build up this offense to once again become truly competitive.
23.	Panthers	-1	5-11	The Panthers finally did it: they pulled Teddy Bridgewater. Of course, Coach Rhule said that it was due to an "ankle injury" (though, according to the NFL, teams are required to send a medical update to the media if there is an injury to player, and the Panthers did not do so for Teddy), we finally got to see XFL legend PJ Walker play... And man, was he awful. He ended up throwing 3 INTs, and managed to look even worse than that stat-line. All of that is bundled up in the fact that we're now looking at teams interviewing Joe Brady, our OC, for their HC job and we dropped to #8 in the Draft because of a meaningless win against Washington. This was one of the most frustrating seasons as a Panthers fan, and I only hope that we can continue to #KeepPounding from here.
24.	Cowboys	-3	6-10	If you watch Sunday backwards, the day went good, but not great, for the Dallas Cowboys. After Washington locked up the division, losing the game against the Giants netted them 3 or 4 draft slots. All in all, though, this season is just like that horrible trainwreck of a on-man play that a friend from college put on: they invited you, and you agreed to participate but didn't know what you were getting in to, and then once you showed up you couldn't leave, because you were committed, and now its finally over, and you're just so relieved. Dallas got a good look at their roster, and their depth, and what they could scrounge up odd the street in October at a lot of positions, and hopefully can use that data to make smart decisions in the spring. Finally, and most importantly, why haven't they paid Dak yet? It's been allowed for like 18 hours at the time of writing this!
25.	Falcons	-1	4-12	Hopefully 2021 is the year Blank realizes announcing "Falcons for life" isn't effective in contract negotiations. There are major questions heading into the offseason, but any new coach might find more answers on this roster than realized. Fortunately, Raheem Morris doesn't count. With a top 5 pick for the first time since Matt Ryan was drafted in 2008, there will be room for difference makers on this team even with a subpar cap situation.
26.	Broncos	--	5-11	Time is a flat circle. Week 17, Broncos hosting the Raiders. All comes down to a two-point conversion. The Raiders choked it last year, the world went down a dark path. Perhaps things going opposite this year will lead to a brighter tomorrow? Stay tuned.
27.	Texans	+2	4-12	There's a solid chance this was the last time fans will see JJ Watt take the field for the Texans, and that's just depressing. This season has taken a lot of out everyone, and there doesn't seem to be a hell of a lot to look forward to this offseason as the folks off Kirby Drive will have to compete in a very active HC/GM market, with no guarantee of success. As with all Americans, Texans fans will look to the new year with a glint of hope, however misplaced that may end up being.
28.	Lions	+2	5-11	293 yards and 3 TD's from Stafford, 2 that went to Marvin Jones Jr (and a third that was called back thanks to a controversial call), and 3 sacks on Kirk Cousins. Although the Lions lost the game, the players were having fun. Rookies Quintez Cephus and D'andre Swift both are getting more comfortable in their roles; becoming more sure handed and running powerfully. Will Stafford resign a long term contract? Will Golladay? Will Marvin Jones Jr? Fuck. Whatever the future is for the Detroit Lions, most fans would agree that the franchise is slowly heading into the right direction.
29.	Eagles	-2	4-11-1	Someone once said, "You can't purposefully lose a football game on primetime television" to which Doug Pederson rolled up his Croft & Barrow sleeves and said, "Not with that attitude you can't."
30.	Bengals	-2	4-11-1	In two games against the Ravens the Bengals had a -59 point differential, in 14 games against everyone else they were -54. A humbling end of the season, but it looks like the Bengals will be bringing head coach Zac Taylor back for a third year. The Bengals hope that several assistant coaching changes, upgrades to the offensive line, and a healthy roster will be enough to make the Bengals more competitive in 2021.
31.	Jets	--	2-14	In what was news to ~~coach~~ Mr. Gase and literally nobody else, the season ended with making medicine ball heave Newton look like an MVP again.
32.	Jaguars	--	1-15	Disaster. There simply isn't a more apt word to describe this hellacious season. Occasionally the team would show a glimmer of being a professional sports team, but it'd quickly fade as mistakes and lack of talent piled up. Now the jobs are piled next to the draft picks. Hopefully whoever next is brought in to run the show can start to make things... well, less shit.

How Mortar Accuracy Works, Mortar Mechanics, Shell Effects & Usage Tips and Safe Antigrain Storage

TLDR at bottom. Version 1.2.2753

Forced Miss Radius, or why you never hit your target.

This is what you see when your mortar targets something.

This is what your mortar sees when targeting something. It is EQUALLY LIKELY to hit ANY of these hundreds of tiles.
Standard ranged weapons make checks based on the weapon's accuracy, the shooter, and other things such as cover to see if their attack hits the target, and if that check passes the projectile tries to home in on the target. Mortars are NOT standard, and don't care about ANY of the above.
Despite being a structure like turrets, mortars follow the same rules as grenades and are Forced Miss Radius (FMR) weapons, which essentially is a fancy way of saying 'AoE'. All FMR weapons only care about two things: the target square and the weapon's miss radius.
The way the Forced Miss Radius works is pretty simple: in effect, it means intentionally failing the accuracy check. And to explain this, I'm going to use grenades.

Miss Radius and Direct Hit Chance are all that matter here.
When thrown, grenades don't hit a square as much as they hit an 'area'. The grenade itself can land in anywhere around the target location, up to 1.9 squares away (the miss radius). Effectively, they have a 2 square radius around where you're trying to hit. There are 9 highlighted tiles and those are all the tiles the grenade can land on, and that's how the direct hit chance of 11% is calculated. The odds of hitting the middle are just 1/9 because nothing makes it more or less likely to hit the targeted square. The shooter doesn't matter, it's all about random chance. And despite not showing you this visually, mortars work the exact same way.

\"0.19% hit chance????\"
Mortars have a 13 tile miss radius around the target, which is about equal to the range of a Rimworld shotgun. What your mortar saw up above is every possible square within the miss radius, which ends up being 517 tiles. The direct hit chance, or chance to hit Nihlus' tile, is literally just 1/517, which ends up being 0.19342%. This is why mortars NEVER seem to hit anywhere near the actual target; the odds of selecting a tile anywhere near the center is incredibly low. Mortar material does nothing to change this.

Mortar Mechanics and Variants

All mortars take 28 seconds to arm a shot. After the mortar is armed, it takes 4 seconds to fire the shot, after which the pawn will go and get another shell to fire again. Once the mortar is reloaded, the process repeats. Pawns that are Incapable of Violence cannot man mortars.
While there are five mortar variants, the only real differences are flammability and HP. Material does impact market price, work cost, and beauty, but the work to build a mortar is pretty negligble to begin with and the other values have no combat utility.

Steel is the easiest to make materialswise and is a middle-of-the-road option. 180 HP isn't excellent since mortars explode if damaged under 20% of their health and a single explosion can easily do that much (and cause a chain reaction), and 40% flammability means they aren't immune to fire. Still, steel's easy to get early on and the mortar is just durable enough to survive a few raider gunshots or clubbings without exploding.
Gold has merely 108 HP and 28% flammability. Use your gold elsewhere.
Silver has 126 HP and 28% flammability. Again, a poor investment.
Uranium has 450 HP for 2.5x the durability of steel and has 0% flammability, making it immune to fire. Second best to plasteel, considering both the difficulty of getting uranium and lower stats. Probably the best usage of spare uranium besides maces, though.
Plasteel has 505 HP for slightly over 2.8x the health of steel and again has 0% flammability. 75 plasteel isn't that hard to get and is a great use for it earlygame if a making a quality weapon for a melee pawn isn't possible or viable.

While all mortars only have a .19% chance to hit the center tile, this is not the effective accuracy of the mortar shell because mortars shells (just like grenades) have an AoE effect with a varying radius depending on what shell you use.

Mortar Shells

Area of Effect for all 6 Mortar Shells (mortar target radius included for reference) for center hit.
All shells have a radius on their effect, and as a result there's a massive difference in consistency between them all. Each ring represents the radius for a shell's effect if the mortar aimed at the center, and the shell of the respective type landing on any of those squares also hits the center (so if a firefoam shell landed on any gold squares it would also hit the center tile with the AoE), meaning their odds to hit vary from exceedingly unlikely to guaranteed barring structures / terrain blocking the blast. Here's the stats for all the shell variants:

HE

HE / High Explosive shells are pretty straightforward: there's a big explosion in a 3-tile radius around the hit square (or a 5x5 centered on the hit square, if that's easier to visualize). They're also the shell 99% of people use when they try to use mortars to take something out and then complain about mortars being bad.
The issue with HE shells is that multiple things are subpar. Only 25 tiles of the total 517 will actually impact the center, meaning each shell only has a 4.8356% chance to hit. Even on larger structures (enemy mortars, ship parts) the effective likelihood of hitting is only going to be about a 1/20, and that's for a single hit. Even on a direct hit, only 200 damage is done to a structure, meaning you need 6 hits to actually destroy a ship part. Even an Auto Mortar takes two (though a regular steel mortar and all mech cluster turrets only need a single hit).
In terms of combat, a moving target means even poorer accuracy and even unarmored pawns will generally tank a single hit without being downed / dying immediately, to say nothing of the natural tankiness of mechs and insectoids.
The final issue is they're just not cost-efficient. If your problem takes 40 shells, that's 1k steel and 600 chemfuel. 10 large excellent steel sculptures and that 600 chemfuel is going to be worth about 5,800 silver. Sending all of that by pod is enough to generate +76 relations, which means you could immediately hit ally with a civil outlander group and just call in aid OR straight up make any non-pirate faction neutral. Even just spending all that on gold at full value no discount gets you about 6.214 honor worth of gold, which is only about 2000 silver off from buying an aerodrone salvo and having SIX 6-square radius shells falling right on your target, which is about twice as many times you'd expect to hit your target if you just fired 60 shells and with twice the radius / 4.36x the exploded tiles per shot. Buying that much is actually cheaper than 60 shells, too...
That all being said, they're the only real consistent way to safely deal damage across the entire map. When you've hit endgame, have a dozen or two mortars, and the cost isn't a big deal, nothing can really do the same job of chipping away a couple dozen pawns consistently each raid regardless of what faction they are and where they're coming from as firing a dozen or two shells at a time.

Incendiary

Incendiary shells "explode" in a small 3-tile radius that inflicts small burns on anyone hit and and spreads several (number seems to vary) burning chemfuel puddles around the impact site as well as inflicting a very small amount of structure damage if the target was a wall (and lighting several segments on fire if said walled area is flammable). Said puddles burn for several seconds and spread fires. While they have the same abysmal 3-tile radius as HE shells and on paper only have a ~5% chance to hit, fire mechanics as a whole help out tremendously with consistency here and make them excellent area denial.
Fire can spread to any flammable material within a 3 square radius, effectively doubling the radius an incendiary shell has an effect on and meaning on average a significantly higher likelihood of catching something important on fire and causing massive spread.
Incendiary shells are phenomenal for sieges because fire will destroy any mortars being built almost instantly, PERMANENTLY taking them out. This doesn't even need a direct hit to the mortars being worked on: hits to supplies or any single raider themselves seem to aggro the raid into attacking, immediately abandoning any mortars being built and deconstructing them. This turns a dicey situation into a regular raid plus several hundred free steel and whatever else doesn't burn before you clean up. Do note that mechs and all mech cluster turrets & buildings are fireproof, though. Unless you specifically want to burn the steel walls and barricades on a cluster, avoid using incendiary shells there.

Firefoam

Firefoam shells literally behave as a launched firefoam popper. However, they're also significantly cheaper, only costing 35 steel per shell, compared to the 75 steel / 1 component that a popper costs.
Contrary to the wiki, firefoam doesn't slow pawns as of 1.2.2753. nor does the explosion appear to disable shields. Mechanically it's pretty basic, it acts much like filth (and doesn't disappear unless cleaned / rain washes it away) but prevents fire from being on the tiles that it's on (though pawns themselves can still catch fire. This doesn't make you immune to inferno cannons!). As an explosion, it will also extinguish any structures nearby. Note that a structure being on or adjacent to firefoam doesn't matter; your walls and table CAN catch fire again despite firefoam being out. This means it can slow down spread, but can't stop walls or furniture from being reignited. This WILL prevent trees and grasses from igniting, though.
Despite a mortar-fired firefoam shell explosion actually being smaller than a popped firefoam popper (which has an effect radius of 14, compared to something like 6 for the mortar projectile), the shells themselves (not loaded) have an explosion size equal to a firefoam popper. Since fire will ignite them all the same, they can actually be used as a cheaper and beauty-neutral way to fireproof your home and stockpiles compared to poppers. That being said, an 85 tile coverage on the mortar shell means you have a 16.44% chance of foaming what you want to, which isn't bad since odds are any shot will significantly impede / slow down a raging fire.

Smoke

Smoke shells make a massive cloud of smoke appear over the target area. Smoke lasts only about 20 seconds but does two important things: shooting through it reduces accuracy by 70% and turrets will not fire if any amount of smoke is between them and their target. A wild bullet is still dangerous and can be intercepted by friendlies even if it "misses", however.
Smoke is particularly amazing for mech clusters and for making safe retreats. Nothing in the game generates a smoke cloud this large, and 161 tiles of coverage means you have about a 1/3 (31.14%) of impacting the center tile, which isn't even necessary for smoke to do its job. One shot between you and the turrets is all you need to get a smoke launcher pawn safely in to lock a cluster down, lob a few grenades, or bait out mechs, taking out a big problem for only 35 steel.

EMP

EMP shells are pretty self explanatory: they make a massive EMP blast centered on the hit tile. A titanic area coverage of 241 tiles gives a ~46.6% chance of hitting the target square, or about a 71.5% chance of hitting the target with two shells.
EMP mechanics are simple but varied: everything remotely electronic gets shorted out, but each object / unit have their own mechanics with how they deal with it and are stunned with different durations. Here's the crash course:

Mortars, auto mortars, mini-turrets, auto-cannon turrets, uranium slug turrets, and all mech cluster turrets get stunned for 25 seconds upon EMP'd and cannot fire. Mechs ALSO get stunned for 25 seconds, but "adapt" to EMP effects and prevent further stuns for 36.67 seconds. Because they're still stunned, however, this effectively only gives them 11.67 seconds to act between stuns.
Cluster shields (high and low) only get stunned for 18 seconds per hit. However for high shields, being hit by the EMP shell is guaranteed due to the shield radius being larger than the mortar miss radius.
Shield belts are disabled for 53.333 seconds, pawns with nuclear, reprocessor, and detoxifier stomachs vomit, and pawns with cicardian, neurocalculator, and learning assistant impants are downed for about 57 seconds. Incapacitating pawns with EMP does NOT cause a decrease to relations as of current release, and rescuing pawns downed in this way causes them to leave the map after recovering and gives a free relations boost in addition to whatever equipment they dropped (though this only really applies to Empire pawns).

EMP shells are incredibly niche because they're only really usable for mechanoid attacks, but they're also incredibly good at countering them. If you struggle with mechs, especially clusters, give them a try.

Antigrain

Here's the nuke. Antigrain warheads have an explosion radius two tiles longer than the actual miss radius of a mortar, meaning they are guaranteed to damage the targeted tile unless walls get in the way of the blast. Antigrain can destroy walls, but the blast won't travel past them.
Antigrain will destroy just about anything. Adjacent structures will take about 2100 damage, destroying everything and everyone in the game bar compacted plasteel and uranium ore. Ship parts and EMI Dynamos (which don't actually power down mortars despite EMP hits disabling them) are destroyed outright if the warhead strikes within 9 tiles of the ship part (79.3% chance), every other condition-causer in the game will be destroyed regardless.
Being hit will atomize anyone, and even being on the fringe is almost certainly a death, but it's not guaranteed. Tough pawns also have a much better chance of surviving since they take half damage. It's almost a guaranteed down on everything that survives though, which means virtually all hostile NPCs bar the tanky centipede in the radius will die.
Their purpose and value is obvious, so let's talk about something else: storage tricks. A poorly-stored antigrain firing off can end a game, so here's a tip and two ways to keep your warhead safe but easily accessible:

Tantrums love focusing on these shells since they have a high market value of $1200. The challenge isn't just making a safe place for the shell, it's a safe place that also prevents a pawn from atomizing themselves.
Transport pods are tantrum-proof and will protect the shell from damage until the pod or pod launcher is broken. While not fireproof, this lets the shell take even a direct mortar round without suffering any damage.
Mortar shells inside a mortar don't actually explode when the mortar itself is destroyed; the mortar merely explodes with a set explosion radius and the shell is lost. This means that storing an antigrain warhead inside a mortar itself is actually one of the safest and most convenient places to put it if you're worried about the shell exploding in your base, especially if you splurge on one of the durable and fireproof mortar types.

Conclusion

Mortars are extremely expensive and have poor results when people try to use them like a win button to circumvent fighting with their pawns (without using antigrains, which are for doing exactly that). They are very effective when they're used as a support tool for your combat squad to make it easier for THEM to go out and fight, as long as you're careful and don't EMP the wrong colonist.
Despite pawns incapable of violence no longer being able to use them, pawns without combat skills still have a way to make encounters much safer for your squads with a well-placed smoke, incendiary, or EMP. Give them a try, especially firefoam shells as a substitute for poppers!
TLDR: 0.19% chance to hit target tile, shell variants impact effective accuracy.

4.84% for HE (bad)
4.84% for Incendiary (okay)
16.44% for Firefoam (use instead of poppers)
31.14% for Smoke (good)
46.62% for EMP (amazing)
100% for Antigrain (lol)

Avoid HE Shells, the rest have niches. Smoke and EMP in particular are incredible for dismantling mech clusters.

Official r/NFL Week 12 Power Rankings

As Week 12 finally rolls to a stop, we look back on another odd week with football played on four days. Will the overreactions stop? Will rankings ever be on time again? Discuss! 31/32 Reporting

#	Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.	Chiefs	+1	10-1	Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill were on another level in the first quarter against a good Bucs defense. The two connected on seven passes for 203 yards and 2 TDs in only 15 minutes of play. The offensive explosion from the first quarter proved to be just enough for the Chiefs to hang on after a late Bucs push, in part thanks to Reid trusting Mahomes to win the game. No quarterback is playing as well as Mahomes right now and the Chiefs are coming back to KC to play a dilapidated Denver Broncos next week.
2.	Steelers	-1	11-0	When a game goes from a Thursday to the following Wednesday, there isn't much to say that hasn't been said since this game was talked about to death. Pittsburgh's defense could stop RG3 from throwing, but not running. They needed extra help from his hamstring to do that. Another unknown QB was able to surprise the Steelers with Trace McSorely coming in for Baltimore and looking decent. The Steelers just played bad, though. That said, bad play was enough to overcome a skeleton crew of Ravens.
3.	Saints	--	9-2	After a promising start, the Taysom Hill experiment seemed to hit a speedbump in week 2. In a matchup of WR vs TE at QB, the Saints came in with a plan to pound the ball again and again. That meant demand for Hill’s arm wasn’t as high as it could be - but what was shown wasn’t great. A rematch against a Falcons team which has been quietly building since their regime change will be a better litmus test for a team which thinks it can afford to drop a game or two.
4.	Packers	+1	8-3	Happy Birthday Aarons! Both Rodgers and Jones celebrate their birthdays on Wednesday, and the Bears gave them an early present by getting clobbered on Sunday Night.
5.	Titans	+5	8-3	Derrick Henry ran wild in the first half of the game against the Colts for 140 yards and 3 TDs. In that same half, he surpassed 5,000 career yards. As the year approaches "DHenber", Derrick Henry is making a case for at least a few MVP votes if he stays on pace.
6.	Bills	+2	8-3	Despite three 4th quarter turnovers, the Bills were still able to win by double digits. That’s a big deal. Good teams make mistakes and still find a way to win. If it was still in doubt that the Buffalo is a good football team, that should be put to rest. The Bills might not be top dog in the conference, but they’re a roster built to make some noise in the playoffs. The home stretch should be fun.
7.	Seahawks	--	8-3	Want to take this week to shout out Carlos Dunlap. The Seahawks defense is by no means elite, or even really that great, but Carlos has been a huge addition to the D-line, and the team is getting to the quarterback on a totally different level since he's arrived. After handling the Eagles, The Seahawks look to continue their NFC East gauntlet against the Giants this week. The DK Metcalf/James Bradberry matchup should be very interesting.
8.	Colts	-2	7-4	Guh. For some actual analysis - while the Colts' absences in the trenches certainly hurt, CB Rock Ya-Sin has been hugely disappointing this season. Ya-Sin is a frustrating player who plays well in spurts but makes hideously dumb mistakes all too often. The Packers targeted him last week with success; this week Ya-Sin was luckily overshadowed as his baptizing via AJ Brown paled in comparison to the work Tyreek Hill did on Carlton Davis.
9.	Rams	-5	7-4	5th seed -- right where we want to be! It's all part of Jared Garf's plan.
10.	Buccaneers	-1	7-5	The sports media tends to take mole hill stories and turn them into K2 sized mountains, but in the case of Arians-Brady, these two have meshed as well as BP crude oil on the Gulf of Mexico. The Bucs lost 3 of their last 4 in a tough stretch of schedule that included the Chiefs, the Rams, and the Saints. With a relatively easy schedule to close out the season that includes interim head coaches in 3 of the remaining 4 games, there's an urgency for the Bucs to close out strong to avoid the continuation of a 13 year playoff drought. With a roster as deep as the Bucs have right now, there's little excuse remaining for Licht, Arians, or even Tom Brady.
11.	Ravens	--	6-5	To think that a COVID ravaged roster only need a below average offensive effort to beat Pittsburgh is the closest thing to a silver lining the Ravens will get, as they will need to basically win out to even consider thinking about the playoffs.
12.	Browns	+2	8-3	For the first time in 13 years the Browns will NOT have a losing season. With a shot at the playoffs the Browns will take on the 7-3 Titans and then a key divisional game against the totally healthy Ravens.
13.	Dolphins	+2	7-4	With a sweep of the hapless Jets, the Dolphins finally pull even with them all-time, leaving only 5 teams with a winning record against the Dolphins. In the process the Dolphins became one of only 5 teams to allow 3 points or fewer in a single season 2-game sweep. It's a stark reminder that the Dolphins made the right move in moving on from Adam Gase.
14.	Cardinals	-2	6-5	Belichick won another game against what most would consider the better team, but mistakes give the opposing team opportunities. Arizona is a Hopkins miracle away form 0-4 in the last month
15.	Raiders	-2	6-5	After the abysmal performance in week 11, the Raiders look to rebound against the Jets this week. If the Raiders lose this their playoff hopes will cease to exist, just like their fans wills to live.
16.	49ers	+2	5-6	The team may be homeless, and they may have a historically injury plagued season, but after completing the sweep of the Rams they find themselves in the playoff hunt. For that alone Shanahan should be in the COTY discussion.
17.	Vikings	+2	5-6	Against all odds, the Vikings are still in the playoff hunt.
18.	Patriots	+2	5-6	Defense and Nick Folk won the game, with Cam Newton putting together a redemptive final drive. A messy hard win, but NE will need to improve on offense to achieve a (still possible) playoff berth.
19.	Bears	-3	5-6	Only the most dedicated of Mitch stans needed the reminder that is the Trubisky horror show. The Bears' problems go much deeper than which bad quarterback is starting any given Sunday -- and deeper than who is coaching, who is calling plays, and who the GM is. Unless there are fundamental changes to the entire organization, the Bears will forever be stuck in a cycle of suck and mediocrity punctuated by one or two good seasons every decade. But how can you fire owners?
20.	Falcons	+2	4-7	The defense improved when Quinn gave up playcalling duties. The defense improved again when Raheem took on other responsibilities. A blowout in score only, the most important takeaway is that Atlanta has enough talent in all three phases to attract a competent new regime. Congratulations to Jacob Tuioti-Mariner becoming the second Falcon to win NFC DPOW this season.
21.	Panthers	-4	4-8	As a rookie, Jeremy Chinn just accomplished what no other player in NFL history has done. Unfortunately not even consecutive defensive touchdowns were enough to keep a clutch Cousins & co. from an all too efficient two minute drill.
22.	Texans	+2	4-7	Lions fans, you're welcome. Another poison fruit of the Belichick tree has gone to seed, and there was much rejoicing. On another note, apparently the reason Fuller has been uncharacteristically healthy was PEDs so that's a fun development.
23.	Chargers	-1	3-8	That was embarrassing. That may have been one of the worst coaching jobs by the Chargers in any individual game in recent memory. Buffalo tried to give the game away multiple times and the Chargers still managed to lose by more than one possession. Congrats to Joey Bosa for being the only player ready to go. The Chargers go up against a Patriots team next week who showed that, as long as BB is on the sidelines, they can still win. New England is not in its heyday anymore, but extremely sloppy coaching and playing will not beat them.
24.	Broncos	-3	4-7	I am a Kendall Hinton guy
25.	Washington FT	+2	4-7	At 4-7 and with both Philly and Dallas falling to 3 wins we may be looking at a race to 6-10 between Washington and NY for the NFC LEAST crown. Idk what else to say, I'm just amazed we're getting into December playing "meaningful" football with a chance to host a playoff game despite... everything about this franchise including their record.
26.	Giants	--	4-7	An ugly win is still a win. Firing Marc Colombo may have proven to be addition by subtraction, as Big Blue had their first sack-free game of the year on sunday. The defense gets one of its biggest tests this week as it takes on chef Wilson and sous chef Metcalf. If there's going to be a shootout, I guess it helps to have a quarterback who sounds like he's straight out of a western leading the helm of your team. Godspeed, Colt.
27.	Lions	-2	4-7	REJOICE. GM Bob Quinn and HC Matt Patricia are fired the Saturday after a Thanksgiving slaughter by the Houston Texans. detroitlions says their thanks by donating to Deshaun Watsons charity, as well as spamming the sub with "nEw Hc aND gM tHOugtS?" Interim HC Darell Bevell will hopefully give the Lions the similar spark they had last year with Matthew Stafford was performing high above expectations. It's time to find out if Matt Patricia was holding the OC/DC back, or if the team is just wholeheartedly fucked.
28.	Eagles	--	3-7-1	The Eagles gameplan in a nutshell
29.	Cowboys	--	3-8	In the fantasy series Mistborn, there is a form of magic called feruchemy, where you can temporarily reduce one of your physical or mental attributes and store the difference in a piece of metal like a battery to be used later. You can reduce mental processing speed and store it in Bronze, make yourself weak and store strength in Pewter, and make yourself vulnerable to injury and illness and store health in Gold, all for future use. And honestly, that's probably the most reasonable explanation for the Cowboys season at this point.
30.	Bengals	--	2-8-1	Why are you still reading down this far? There is nothing interesting or noteworthy to stay about the Bengals at this point.
31.	Jaguars	--	1-10	The GM is gone. The head coach is "safe through the end of the season." This is what we came to the big show for, folx. It's tank time.
32.	Jets	--	0-11	Wait, which week was the bye week?

d20 NRL Off Season Premiership SPLIT ROUND 13 is here - can PAR stay top? Roll!

Juicy's First Official 2021 NFL Mock Draft (3 Rounds). Trades At The Top. Pick By Pick Analysis Continued In Comments.

Pos	Team	W	D	L	F	A	Diff	Pts
1	Parramatta	8	0	4	276	204	72	16
2	Wests Tigers	7	1	4	192	144	48	15
3	New Zealand	7	0	5	278	222	56	14
4	Gold Coast	7	0	5	220	177	43	14
5	Melbourne	7	0	5	287	262	25	14
6	Newcastle	7	0	5	218	234	-16	14
7	South Sydney	6	1	5	248	222	26	13
8	Cronulla Sutherland	6	0	6	279	239	40	12
9	St George Illawarra	6	0	6	230	220	10	12
10	North Queensland	6	0	6	219	224	-5	12
11	Penrith	6	0	6	214	246	-32	12
12	Manly Warringah	5	0	7	218	251	-33	10
13	Brisbane	5	0	7	218	257	-39	10
14	Eastern Suburbs	5	0	7	226	281	-55	10
15	Canterbury Bankstown	4	0	8	208	254	-46	8
16	Canberra	3	0	9	186	280	-94	6

Trades:
Broncos trade 2021 RD1#12, 2021 RD4 #105 and 2022 RD1 for Cowboys 2021 RD1#4
Panthers trade 2021 RD1#7 and 2021 RD4 #102 and 2022 RD4 for Chargers 2021 RD1#5
Jaguars Trade 2021 Rd1#25 and 2021 RD3#66 for Raiders 2021 RD1#25
The 49ers trade 2021 RD2 #47, 2022 4th and Jimmy Garapolo for Patriots 2021 RD2 #46 and 2022 RD6
Steelers Trade 2021 RD2#64, 2021 RD4#128 and 2021 RD7#239 for Seahawks 2021 RD2#58
Football Team trades 2021 RD3 #75 and 2021 RD4 #106 for Seahawks 2021 RD2 #64
Seahawks Trade 2021 RD4 #122 and 2022 RD4 Via Jets for Packers 2021 RD3 #93
Steelers trade 2021 Rd3 #96 and Conditional 2022 Pick (2nd or 3rd) For Jets QB Sam Darnold
1. *Jets*- Trevor Lawrence-QB-Clemson
Sometimes you just don’t need to overthink it. Darnold’s failure in the Garden State wasn’t his own fault but you don’t pass on free, generational QBs like Lawrence. While you can try to get cute and make cases for Fields, Lance or Wilson, you really shouldn’t, especially with the 2021 scheme still TBD. Lawrence has the arm talent, IQ, athleticism, size and character to fit well in any scheme and any coaching staff. His only weakness I see is a reckless streak to force balls to his first option through tight windows. IMO this is simply a result of being more talented than the competition, throwing to receivers more talented than the opposition and having better scheming than the opposition. It should go away with NFL reps. Slam dunk pick. It’s time to bring sunshine to the garden state.
2. *Jaguars*- Justin Fields-QB-Ohio St
For as poor as their record is, the Jags actually have some pretty good pieces to build around. This has to be one of the youngest teams in football and with Coughlin gone, maybe they can actually start bringing in free agents and keeping stars in house. James Robinson, Laviska Shenualt, DJ Chark and a surprisingly good interior O-line lead by a potential all-pro in Brandon Linder give the offense a good baseline to build around. Give Justin Fields some good protection, an emerging young RB who can catch passes, an OC who can scheme first reads into space and a playmaking receiving group and we have a good chance to do something. For my money, Fields is the most accurate QB in the class and arguably the best at grasping route-tree concepts. Like Lawrence, he struggles to come off of his first read at times and for very similar reasons, though in his case it leads to less yolo balls and more tucking and running while second reads run free. He will need reps to come off of this, but in a quick-hitting system with playmakers, he could really hit the ground running.
3. *Bengals*- Penei Sewell-OT-Oregon
This pick is the easiest in the entire draft. Best LT I’ve personally scouted coming out to a team that needs it more than any other team, with an injured 1-1 QB who looked every bit the part in his rookie year. If it were any more obvious, Avril Lavigne would write a song about it.
4. *Broncos Via Cowboys*- Zach Wilson-QB-BYU
Either John Elway’s good will in Denver will be good enough to get him one last shot at drafting his QB, or a new regime will come in and want to draft their own QB. Either way, a new QB is coming, which is exciting given that they actually have some really good pieces on offense. Going with the idea that Elway remains, I can see Elway falling in love with either guy, likely seeing more of himself in Wilson, but Lance likely blowing him away in interviews and more importantly being slightly taller. In the end, while I have Lance rated higher, I think Elway will want to go the perceived safer route in Wilson, who is still a high ceiling player in his own right and has experience playing at high altitudes for BYU. Either way, I think Denver trading into the top 5 for a QB is one of the biggest locks of the draft. Dallas has a plethora of needs, but a healthy Dak Prescott has looked like a top 5 QB in recent years and is simply too good to walk away from. Since I have CB as their top need and Sewell off of the board, it makes sense for them to grab draft capital and still likely land a top 2-3 CB.
5. *Panthers Via Chargers*- Trey Lance-QB-NDSU
With Wilson off of the board, the Panthers pay a slight price to flip with the Chargers and ensure they get their QB. While I have Lance rated higher than Wilson for most teams, I actually slightly prefer Wilson in Carolina if they got their choice, but Lance is far too good to pass on. While Brady may not be able to run his full concept year one with Lance, Teddy’s still tentative nature has held back the offense at times and still lead to too many turnover worthy plays. They will need to slow down the game a bit for Lance if he starts from day one, but they have the pieces to do so. Lance will add a game-breaking dynamic to open up the entire field with his arm, while taking pressure off of CMC and demanding QB spies. This should really open things up for Brady to slowly unleash Lance. They have the pieces to have one of the best offenses in football (and the coaching) if this hits. With so many targets schemed into space and a heavy dose of CMC to make defenses respect the run, Lance’s potential accuracy issues will be muted and he has the ability to drive the ball in ways that help receivers functionally be more open than with a touch passer. They are also perfectly situated to start a cheap Teddy until Lance is ready with a long term minded coaching staff and ownership. Really like this fit and team.
6. *Eagles*- Caleb Farley-CB-Virginia Tech
I could see a case for the Eagles going after Chase here, but with how poor the Eagles secondary has been this year outside of an aging Darius Slay, I can’t see them passing on a talent like Farley. Jim Schwartz likes to put a ton of pressure on his secondary and Maddox/NRC simply don’t have the size or physicality to deal with what’s asked of them. IMO Farley has the highest ceiling of any CB i’ve scouted since Ramsey and similarly has the rare combo of size, speed and football IQ to match up with any receiver or QB in the game. The former QB still knows how to think like a CB and has the ball skills that made him highly recruited as a WR before he transitioned to CB. Farley checks every physical box, every mental box, every playmaking box and is said to have a home run character. If i’m searching for an issue, he can take an occasional miss-step in zone, but Schwartz is famously averse to soft zone. Farley has a bit of an injury history and is still fairly new to the position, but he has all-pro potential, a high floor and is a much needed good fit for this Eagles secondary. They can’t afford to pass on him.
7. *Chargers Via Panthers*- Samuel Cosmi-OT-Texas
The Chargers traded back, acquiring two fourths to make stomaching reaching for a tackle a bit easier. Still they have to do it. They look to have a franchise QB and play-action can only mask so much. The line is simply terrible. Per PFF, the Chargers line ranks as follows: tackles Sam Tevi and Brian Bulaga (71st and 56th out of 78 with Pipkins ranked 77th getting snaps), Trai Turner and Forrest Lamp (81st and 74th of 83) at guard and Dan Feeney (35th of 36) at center. Oof. The only borderline passable starter is a Bulaga at RT who will be 32 next year. With a QB who has wheels and big money tied to a fleet footed Ekeler, I think adding lateral mobility and athleticism to the line is a must. Cosmi isn’t a finished product technically or physically but he has the frame to add good weight while maintaining plus athleticism at the blind side and is used to playing with a mobile QB who will make life tougher on him. He rarely fully loses reps and should provide an immediate upgrade from Tevi, while having an extremely high ceiling. It’s time to change the identity of that line and lean into the play action game that is keeping the offense functional, even if I have Darrishaw rated slightly higher, I prefer this fit.
8. *Football Team*- Ja’Marr Chase-WR-LSU
People seem to be forgetting how good Ja’Marr Chase is after a year off. Justin Jefferson has been one of the best receivers in the entire NFL his rookie year, Terrace Marshall is a borderline round one guy, CEH was a first round pick and yet the most impressive skill player on that 2019 LSU team was Chase. While the Football Team clearly doesn’t have a long term solution at QB, the top 4 guys are gone and I’m not sure they have the skill players or line for a new QB to ever be successful anyways. When your receivers 2-5 are Steven Sims, Cam Sims, Dontrell Inman and Isaiah Wright, you don’t pass on a Ja’Marr Chase. Easily the worst 2-5 in the NFL. Logan Thomas isn’t a top 30 TE either. There are some pieces in DC. McLaurin is a stud and Gibson is everything I hoped he would be. The line has some good pieces, but have two weak links in Martin and Christian that need to be replaced before it can become functional. With a year left on Smith’s deal and 50 mil in cap space, the FT can afford to bring back Scherff, upgrade from Martin and take a swing on a mid round QB. Worst case scenario they go all in on a 2021 QB but actually have the pieces in place for him to hit the ground running.
9. *Lions*- DeVonta Smith-WR-Alabama
The Lions currently have Quintez Cephus and Geronimo Allison as receivers under contract in 2021...that’s it. They have approximately 1.23M in available cap space as it currently stands. I still expect them to figure out a way to bring back Kenny G, but even then, they are going to need a day one starter at WR. My mind is telling me Jaylen Waddle’s speed will get him to top 10, but I don’t love how his game meshes with Stafford nor am I fully confident he’s ready to go day one in 2021. Smith may be built like a teen who just hit a growth spurt but he’s a day one starter in the NFL and his game meshes really well with both Stafford and compliments Golladay’s. I’m really interested to see who takes in Detroit next year, but whoever it is, a potential unit of Kenny G, DeVonta Smith, an emergent TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift isn’t the worst place to start.
10. *Falcons*- Kwity Paye-Edge-Michigan
The Falcons need a pass rusher off of the edge, we all know that, it just comes down to which one; so having Rousseau, Paye and Parsons all still on the board is a dream scenario. While I personally have them rated Parsons, Rousseau and then Paye, it’s close enough between all three to go by fit. I honestly think the Falcons have a very strong linebacker corps and won’t get the greatest usage out of Parsons and while I love the idea of Rousseau sliding inside next to Grady Jarrett on 3rd and long, I think they need to go for day one impact and mainly the best all around true edge. For me, that makes Paye the best fit. Always a true freak athlete (which, check out Bruce Feldman’s freak list (https://theathletic.com/1938659/2020/07/21/bruce-feldmans-freaks-list-2019-college-football-top-athletic-performances-2/) but in 2020 he has made a herculean jump in production and polish. This a day one starter, with incredibly rare athletic traits, a feel good backstory and immediate impact at a gigantic need.
11. *Dolphins Via Texans*- Micah Parsons-LB-Penn St
I don’t need to go into too much detail here. The Dolphins have one of the NFL’s few good defenses thanks to a strong secondary and simply elite play calling and positioning from Flores/Boyer. That’s despite Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker’s poor play and general talent. So what if we gave them a uniquely talented player who can play inside, outside and even play as a pure edge while fitting what the scheme wants to do perfectly? I can’t wait to find out. I think Parsons is still somewhat raw as a player and will have a few rough moments early on, simply because he’s been so so so much more naturally gifted than his competition for his entire life and hasn’t been punished for small mistakes. That said, I can’t think of a better landing spot at getting the most out of him early on and putting him in positions to succeed, nor can I think of a better player at mentoring him than Kyle Van Noy. Parsons will be an immediate upgrade and the potential for what he could grow into in Miami is tantalizing. Thanks Houston.
12. *Cowboys Via Broncos*- Patrick Surtain II-CB-Alabama
The Cowboy’s trade back pays off. I would have been between Surtain and Farley at 4th overall and while I would have leaned Farley, the gap certainly isn’t a 2022 (likely somewhat early) 1st rounder and a 4th. Pairing Surtain up with his college counterpart in Diggs should allow Diggs to go back to his natural 2 spot and provide an immediate upgrade from the triumvirate of Awuzie, Brown and Lewis. Surtain may not be the fastest straight line runner, but his hips are as smooth as they come and he makes up for any long speed deficiencies with elite mirroring and physicality. Surtain has improved as a tackler in 2020 and is probably the best day one starter at CB in this class. The Cowboys will need some safety help over the top against speed receivers, but this is an easy pick.
13. *Bears*- Christian Darrisaw-OT-Virginia Tech
The Bears would love a top 4 QB to fall into their laps at 13, but I just don’t know if they have the assets to afford a move into the top 5 right now. With Nick Foles more expensive to cut than to keep and only 2 mil in expected cap room in 2021, they will need to clear up some space. They happen to have two expensive tackles that are playing solidly but are the only non Akiem Hicks way to open up a big chunk of cap. With Ifedi a free agent expecting to see a bigger contract in 2021, the Bears have a day one need at tackle. Luckily for them, my #2 rated tackle is still on the board and is an absolute monster when he’s set and moves extremely well for his size. There are some issues getting set, but he has an extremely high ceiling and could help open up some much needed cap space for Chicago, while providing a long term solution to a two tackles who are due a lot of money, are cheap to cut and getting onto the wrong side of 30 (and coming off of a severe knee injury in Massie’s case). A receiver is an option here if they cant bring back A-Rob, as could be CB if they cut Fuller. Safety appears as a need as well, but nobody is close to a value this early. Darrishaw is the best value to need for me.
14. *Vikings*- Gregory Rousseau-Edge-Miami (FL)
I looooove this pick. A lot of people are low on Rousseau since he isn’t a finished product, but I think that’s pretty unfair. Rousseau, in his first year as a starter managed 15.5 sacks and 19.5 TFL. While his pressure rate made the sack total seem unsustainable, this is a player who will always have a high sack to pressure ratio due to his insane length, absurd speed to power and insane closing burst. Rousseau is unlikely to be a finished product in 2021, he needs to improve his move repertoire and would do well to use his length to shut down passing lanes. But he has a much higher floor than people give him credit for because he does such a good job of using his length to keep defenders outside of his body and can always detach from blocks. He physically resembles Jevon Kearse, which is something I’ve never said before and his athletic testing is going to be nutty. From a traits perspective this is a once every 5-10 years prospect. Minnesota has done a great job developing high ceiling players and have needs across the D-line. Rousseau setting an edge on run downs and sliding inside for passing downs (where he will be a nightmare from day one) will be a huge asset for the Viks. I can’t see them passing on Rousseau should he be on the board at 14 barring a sliding Trey Lance.
15. *Patriots*- Jaylen Waddle-WR-Alabama
It baffles me that a great defensive mind like BB has allowed himself to have such a slow receiver group, but I can’t imagine him just allowing it to remain as is. The Pats have holes along the D-line and would love a franchise QB, but have played themselves out of contention for the clear round one talents. While I have to imagine Kyle Pitts would be extremely enticing here, he doesn’t offer the ability to play in-line/move nor would he be functional slid in at FB. Without the ability to disguise playcalls, I see Waddle as the pick here to add some much needed electricity and field stretching ability despite having Pitts rated slightly higher. Jakobi Meyers has emerged as a solid receiver for the Pats and the ghost of Julian Edelman remains. With Waddle demanding defensive attention, perhaps he can open up some free space for N’Keal Harry to finally realize some of the yac ability that got him drafted so highly. Edge has to be tempting, but with Rousseau and Paye both off of the board the gap between what Waddle brings to the table vs a second round receiver and a Basham type vs who will be there at 46 leans heavily in Waddle’s favor. Assuming he’s fully healthy at the combine, I think this is Waddle’s floor.
16. *49ers*- Jaycee Horn-CB-South Carolina
The 49ers would love to see a top 4 QB fall to 16 and have to be somewhat interested in Trask and Jones as scheme fits, but they also currently have literally zero cornerbacks under contract for 2021, nor are they particularly flush with cap space nor do they have a third round pick. Jaycee Horn is not only my clear cut CB3 (maaaybe can see a case for Stokes) but he’s also a great fit for what Saleh wants to do should he remain in town. This is one of the easier picks in the first for me. Good fit, arguably best player available and absolutely massive,gaping, day one need. Wyatt Davis is a strong 1B for me though.
17. *Jaguars Via Raiders*- Kyle Pitts-TE-Florida
The Jags have a ton of picks early this year, a coordinator who excels at using athletic receiving TE, a rookie QB who they will be heavily invested in succeeding, a clear need at TE and a likely willing trade partner in Las Vegas. Trading up to grab Pitts is a no-brainer for me. He’s a top 10 talent in the class who could legitimately compete for WR1 in the class should he be listed that way. Is he a great blocker? No. But he’s literally breaking records at catching contested balls, runs the crispest routes i’ve ever seen from a TE and is going to be a prime Jimmy Graham level end-zone threat who can win at every point on the field. Who matches up with this guy? Not a CB, not an LB, maaaaaybe Isaiah Simmons on his best day or a Derwin James? Factor in Jay Gruden knowing exactly how to use this kind of talent and how ridiculously accurate Justin Fields is and you have to make this trade. A Justin Fields offense with this receiving group and Gruden calling plays gets me excited. Just need a tackle and a defense and we may just have something here. Jason Mendoza would be ecstatic.
18. *Ravens*-Wyatt Davis-IOL-Ohio St
The Ravens are reeeeally missing Marshall Yanda and Davis is easily the top IOL in this class for me. I think the Ravens are trying to move away from their 2019 offensive strategy since the don’t have the pieces, but the answer is actually to rebuild around what actually worked. That has to start in the trenches. Wyatt Davis embodies Ravens football. He is a genuine people mover, but he doesn’t sacrifice speed or mobility to achieve that power. He’s pure controlled aggression, and if that’s not a Harbaugh player, I don’t know Harbaugh. If Davis played any other position, he wouldn’t be on the board at 18. Plug and play week one starter who can help get the Ravens back to the 2019 glory. If Pitts is off of the board, this has to be the pick.
19. *Giants*- Joseph Ossai-Edge-Texas
The Giants situation isn’t as bad as I thought at first glance. They haven’t had the best offensive line pay, but with Nate Solder set to return in ‘21, Andrew Thomas starting to look closer to a top 10 pick and Matt Peart as an interesting developmental piece, it felt early to reach on a tackle and I don’t love any interior lineman enough to pull the trigger here. Receiver is a glaring need, but I think there will still be impact starters to get in round two and money to spend in FA as needed. I don’t hate Daniel Jones from my looks and think if the line and skill positions improve around him, he still has a chance to develop into a second contract sort of guy. He deserves his 40 start sample size. With Saquon set to return, that leaves edge as the most glaring need. Leonard Williams and Dalvin Tomlinson are both free agents (though should imo be brought back) and Kyle Fackrell doesn’t deserve another season as a starter. In Patrick Graham’s multiple 3-4 front, there happen to be two exciting players who fit the rush LB mold extremely well and fit value wise. Azeez Ojulari and Jospeh Ossai. I have Ossai rated slightly higher on my board and love his fit in this defense as a better early down linebacker with a higher athletic ceiling in coverage and better length to entice Gettleman while avoiding combo blocks. The dude is no slouch as a pass rusher either. I love the player and love the fit in a defense that might just emerge in ‘21 if things go right.
20. *Cardinals*- Eric Stokes-CB-Georgia
The Cardinals 2021 will have Patrick Peterson, Johnathan Joseph and Dre Kirkpatrick all hitting free agency next year, leaving just slot corner Byron Murphy and a soon to be 33 year old Robert Alford coming off a broken leg to end 2019, torn pec that cost him all of 2020 who can be cut to clear 7.5M of cap space. Corner jumps out as a need both long term and potentially from day one. Few players in this class have impressed me as much as Stokes has. Stokes has always been a technically sound player who shines bright outside in press, with loose hips and long arms to obscure passing lanes. But in 2020, he’s taken that next step into a playmaker. Despite teams tending to avoid throwing at him, he’s flashed greatly improved ball skills and even housed two of the picks he has. I think this is a true all around outside corner who can fit in any scheme and do whatever is asked of him. I don’t exactly see a pro bowl ceiling here, but I think Stokes might be the safest CB in this entire class and it wouldn’t shock me if he had the best rookie year of this solid corner class. People tend to underrate a good, polished CB2 chasing upside that doesn’t always fully develop. Draft good football players.
21. *Buccaneers*- Azeez Ojulari-Edge-Georgia
In a down IDL class, I’m tempted to reach for Barmore here and with Donovan Smith able to be cut to clear 14.25M in 2021, a polished tackle like Eichenberg is somewhat enticing. But with both Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett set to be expensive free agents next year, I think a rush LB/edge hybrid is the biggest need and it just so happens Ojulari is still on the board. When I watch Ojulari I pretty much see Shaq Barrett. A smaller, still long bursty/bendy player who can rush the passer at an elite rate, but will struggle setting an edge. Barrett is a good player, but he’s going to demand a contract that will pay him more than he’s worth and take him into the wrong side of 30. Ojulari can replace something very close to Barrett on rushing downs while a cheap Anthony Nelson is already an elite edge setter on run downs. Lavonte David is a much harder player to replace IMO and they should give him the big contract. Between Nelson and Ojulari, I think they can replace Barrett for 20M less a year and honestly, the pairing has a higher ceiling if everything comes together. It will also help the Bucc’s line get younger, which is much needed for future outlook. I can’t think of a better coach than Todd Bowles to max out a guy like Ojulari. Love this fit.
22. *Dolphins*- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah-LB-Notre Dame
After addressing linebacker with pick number 11, the Dolphins double down and draft another at pick 22. If you’re going to start two monster rush LB like Kyle Van Noy and Micah Parsons, it sure as hell won’t hurt to have an absolute speed freak to fly around and neutralize both TE and speed backs. The closest thing I’ve seen to Owusu-Koramoah is basically the 2020 Seahawks version of Jamal Adams (minus the injury) undersized for an LB but incredibly fast, incredibly good at deciphering plays and a surprisingly good blitzer. The dude finishes tackles against future sunday morning players too. As mentioned earlier, Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker ain’t it, especially in a mainly odd front defense. JOK offers a truly unique skill set that not only compliments the pieces already there well, but will be maximized by a coach like Flores. The Dolphins have needs on the O-line, receiver and RB, but you won’t find another JOK in the second round, where they have two picks. Perhaps they can target Owusu-Koramaoh’s son, Travis Etienne with one of those picks.
23. *Colts*- Jaelan Phillips-Edge-Miami (FL)
The Colts have needs at WR,CB and will likely do their due diligence on the remaining QBs. However, the Colts top 3 snap getters on the edge (Houston, Muhammad and Autry) are all free agents, only Houston has been performing well and he’s already 32. Even if he returns, edge will be a need. While Phillips won’t be the top edge available on every team's board here due to a very small sample size and a long injury history, I have to imagine Ballard will be head over heals for this player. Ballard has shown in the past he wants to target athletes with length and Phillips has both in spades. The former #1 overall recruit has insane length, insane burst, elite bend,elite speed to power and knows how to use all four to be first to contact and shed tackles like snake skin. Phillips measurables and 2020 tape are clear cut first round grades and had he had three healthy years, he might be the top edge in the class. The dude even wins in coverage at 6’5 265. The question is, do you trust him to stay healthy. He’s the type of player that will be top 15 on 8 teams boards, mid day two on 10 teams boards and completely off of 14 teams boards. I think Ballard is going to fall in the first group of GMs and he will rush to the podium to get Phillips in the building.
24. *Browns*- Zaven Collins-LB-Tulsa
The Browns have clear needs at edge and linebacker. If Owusu-Koramoah were on the board, he’d be the pick and Dylan Moses has to make them think. But I think they instead get them somebody who can do both. Andrew Berry has shown a strong correlation of draft picks to PFF grades and guess who PFF’s top graded LB in all of college football is? Zaven Collins. More than just questionably important player grades at Tulsa, Zaven Collins has the unteachable traits you can’t coach and scouting teams will love. 6’4 260 pound men shouldn’t be able to move like this. Collins is nimble and agile and is going to blow up the combine. I’d bet money on that. He uses this blend of size and agility to simple avoid blocks at Tulsa but has the size and length to easily disengage at any level. He is borderline elite in coverage and has bullied American conference passers into 2 pass deflections and 4 picks (which he’s returned for 152 yards and 2 TDs) in just 6 2020 games. Collins can rush the passer as well and has legit edge size. Collins currently plays more fast (which he is) than powerful (which he also is). I’d like to see him learn to use his size to initiate contact and bully people at the point of contact because he absolutely can, but I guess why do it when you can just avoid them completely. The game speeds up from the American conference to the AFC North, but I think Collins is a day one LB, special teams force and has potential to develop into a very special player. Watching him play, he reminds me of a cross between KJ Wright and Jamie Collins, but bigger. Fun Player and easy fit.
25. *Raiders Via Jaguars*- Christian Barmore-IDL-Alabama
After trading back and acquiring an extra top 70 pick, the Raiders select the player they wanted all along. The Raiders need a more consistent pass rush. Clelin Ferell has taken a huge step forward in 2020, but he will always be a stop the run player more than a sack artist (as is Nassib), while I’m not ready to give up on Maxx Crosby, he hasn’t been the same player he was in 2019 (or close to it). Maurice Hurst has been their only good pass rusher for my money, but he will need help inside. Johnathan Hankins is a free agent, soon to be on the wrong side of 30. Vickers and Collins certainly aren’t the answer. In a down IDL class, Barmore is the only player I can see ging round one and is easily my top IDL in the class. Is he a polished player and tactician? Nope. NFL double teams will likely eat him if he can’t add more moves or play with better leverage. That said, if you try to double him, Hurst is gonna murder your quarterback. Barmore has rare length, bend and power for an interior player. He already wins against SEC lineman and can play all across the line despite being 310 pounds. When he wins, he wins quickly and is an immediate disruptive force up the middle. Put him outside in short yardage situations and back inside on clear passing downs and he will immediately be an upgrade for the black and silver. He won’t be a 3-down guy year one, but that doesn’t mean he won’t make an impact. Long term, the sky is the limit. This is the only IDL in this class I can envision making a pro bowl. He also just so happens to come from the winning culture that Gruden?Mayock love. It just makes too much sense not to happen.
26. *Jets Via Seattle*- Carlos Basham-Edge-Wake Forest
It’s still TBD who will be the Jets DC in 2021, but I think they have personnel best suited for a true multiple front but could certainly use a genuinely polished power edge suited to play both 3-4 and 4-3 edge. Basham is that guy and while Joe Douglas has a love for quick twitch athletes off of the edge, I think Boogie Basham would make too much sense to pass up on here. Basham (who’s cousin Tarrell is a current Jet likely to be brought back for 2021) is a relentless load to handle on the perimeter who has the kind of day one polish this team needs. Basham has a fantastic grasp on how to clog gaps on run downs, is a sure tackler with his massive wingspan, sheds blocks with a very impressive and polished array of moves, never seems to be out of position, doesn’t over pursue and get out of position and man knows how to use his long-limbed frame to create chaos. Across his last 19 games, he has forced 7 fumbles and tipped 4 passes despite being double and triple teamed week in, week out. Basham isn’t a poor athlete by any means, but I would say he’s more of a day two bend/burst combo than typical day one. That said, he has day one starter polish at 285, makes the players around him better and creates turnovers. This isn’t your 10 sack a year guy, but it’s your 6-8 sack a year, consistent 3 down/scheme versatile edge who makes the players around him better and brings much needed leadership skills.
27. *Titans*- Dylan Moses-LB-Alabama
I expect this to be one of my most controversial picks in this mock. With Clowney a free agent again, edge is a glaring need, but unless you want to reach big time for an edge there isn’t anybody left. With only 10M of cap space currently in 2021, Corey davis has likely priced himself out of town with a boom season. WR is a need but one that can be addressed later. Daquan Jones will need to be replaced at DT. But with Jayon Brown likely gone in 2021, I have to think the former LB and the former Patriot in Mike Vrabel is going to fall in love with Dylan Moses the player; as well as Dylan Moses the person. Moses is a freak athlete with a freak work ethic who clearly just loves the game of football. The movement skills, power and tackling ability are all special. That said, he’s had a somewhat down year. He has good instincts, but you can visually see him second guess himself and overthink plays. RPO’s, sudden moves and good routes have eaten him up in 2020. Who better to teach a special ball of clay how to turn his brain off than Vrabel? Moses will be a day one starter, immediate locker room leader and running back neutralizer in day one for the Titans. There will be some rough moments early on, but this is the kind of player Vrabel loves and the ceiling is really high for this pairing. A reach for Jason Oweh or Jay Tufele feel possible here as well, as could a Bateman or Marshall pick.
28. *Bills*- Shaun Wade-CB-Ohio St
Bills could use an edge if they can’t bring back Murphy, would have to take a long look at Moses if he were on the board and could really use a Pat Freiermuth...but if the draft falls like this I expect them to run to the podium. Josh Norman, Levi Wallace and Daryl Worley are all free agents in 2021 and Taron Johnson isn’t particularly good. With just 4.8M in 2021, this likely means the Bills will need a minimum of one cheap starting CB and likely both a slot and outside guy. Wade can fill both roles and is simply too talented to remain on the board here. Easy pick to make.
29. *Packers*- Rashod Bateman-WR-Minnesota
Do the Packers seemingly ever draft WR round one? No. Should they? Yep. Do they currently have the cap space to bring back Allan Lazard? Lol no. They have -18M in cap space next year. It’s worth noting that this means they are extremely unlikely to be able to resign Aaron Jones, which explains the weird AJ Dillon reach and opens up RB as a possibility. That makes me tempted to grab Kadarius Toney as a Kamara role hybrid, but that doesn’t seem like a Packers move. Terrace Marshall feels like a Packers pick, but he doesn’t block as well as Bateman and won’t be quite as good day one. I think Gutekunst will fall in love with Bateman’s boundary receiving skills, Rodgers will lobby hard for a receiver that wins with a skillset similar to Davante Adams and LaFleur will fall in love with Bateman’s alpha run-blocking game. Toss in the fact that Bateman in Green Bay will rip the heart out of Vikings fans and it’s an all around win. Linebacker is an absolutely glaring need, but all the good ones are gone and the Packers seem to hate drafting them even more than hate drafting receivers. Love this fit and pick.
30. *Chiefs*- Rashawn Slater-OT-Northwestern
The Chiefs have had one hell of a run, but 2021 will be the beginning of having to pay the piper. Even without resigning Sammy Watkins, Charvarius Ward, Breeland, Nieman, Wilson, osemele, Rieters, Remmers, Wylie, Robinson, Lev Bell, Sorenson,kpassagnon and Pennell among players who saw heavy snaps in 2020; they will be -15M in 2021 cap space. And that’s BEFORE the roster gets expensive in 2022. This means, at minimum two of the Honey Badger, Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher will be cap casualties. Basically the entire o-line and secondary will be needs, as well as 1-2 WR. Rashawn Slater of “the only player not to be sucked into the void by Chase Young in 2019” fame can play 4 of the line slots, moves incredibly well for a man his size, can play in cold weather and is apparently loved by “NFL types”. This feels like a pick the Chiefs have to make.
31. *Saints*- Tyson Campbell-CB-Georgia
If you thought the Chiefs cap situation was bad….the Saints currently have -95M of cap space in 2021. -95M. Jared Cook, Alex Anzalone, Sheldon Rankins, Marcus Williams and Trey Hendrickson are impact free agents who won’t be able to be resigned. Making LB, FS, Edge and IDL big needs. Ryan Ramczyk, Marshon Lattimore, Malcolm Brown and Kwon Alexander almost 100% have to be cut. It’s a bad spot to be in. Tackle, QB, LB, DT and CB all stand out as the biggest needs. With two QB’s fully guaranteed over 33M in dead cap in 2021, reaching for a QB round one doesn’t seem likely. Jaylen Mayfield or a Liam Eichenberg seem possible, as could a Jay Tufele but there will be more potential day one starters there round two than CB. Tyson Campbell has injury concerns and has had a pretty poor 2020, but he looks built in a lab to be a CB1. I think this is the replacement for a Lattimore that the Saints simply can’t afford next year. It’s a very wide range of possible outcome player, but it’s a risk they have to take.
32. *Steelers*- Jalen Mayfield-OT-Michigan
The Steelers are yet another team in 2021 cap hell. Sitting pretty at -20M in 2021, the Steelers will have Bud Dupree, Juju, James Conner, Matt Feiler, Cam Sutton, Mike Hilton, Robert Spillane and Tyson Alualu as free agent starters. Edge, OT, CB and RB all jump out as big needs even before cap casualties and the QB of the future still isn’t in the building. In particular, tackle, edge and RB jump out as needs. Jalen Mayfield is a lab built tackle with great length, power and agility wrapped up in a prototypical frame. He is not yet a finished product, who struggles against speed to power and gets over his toes at times. But he has the traits you can’t teach and should thrive in a power concept. Year one will be up and down and in a perfect world, he’d have a year or two to season. Maybe Eichenberg will be a better fit. But he just screams Steelers power football when he gets his lower half right. I can’t see Mike Tomlin go for a RB with the ball security issues Etienne has and while Harris will be tempting, the needs up front are just too much to pass up on a potential starter.

[OC] Each team's WAP (wins above prediction) and what that means for Coach of the Year voting

Stupidly long and detailed XPS 17 9700 post (lemon checklist, 1h/1d/1w/1m reviews, full teardown w/thoughts, benchmarks, battery life tests, clean W10 install driver ‘kit’, AMA).

My 2021 NFL Mock Draft after the Divisional Round - 1/17/21

Team	Preseason	Actual	Wins above prediction
Arizona Cardinals	7.5	8	+0.5
Atlanta Falcons	7.5	4	-3.5
Baltimore Ravens	11.5	11	-0.5
Buffalo Bills	9	13	+4
Carolina Panthers	5.5	5	-0.5
Chicago Bears	8	8	0
Cincinnati Bengals	5.5	4.5*	-1
Cleveland Browns	8.5	11	+2.5
Dallas Cowboys	10	6	-4
Denver Broncos	7.5	5	-2.5
Detroit Lions	7	5	-2
Green Bay Packers	8.5	13	+4.5
Houston Texans	7.5	4	-3.5
Indianapolis Colts	9.5	11	+1.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	4.5	1	-3.5
Kansas City Chiefs	11.5	14	+2.5
Las Vegas Raiders	7.5	8	+0.5
Los Angeles Chargers	8	7	-1
Los Angeles Rams	8.5	10	+1.5
Miami Dolphins	6	10	+4
Minnesota Vikings	9	7	-2
New England Patriots	9	7	-2
New Orleans Saints	10.5	12	+1.5
New York Giants	6.5	6	-0.5
New York Jets	6.5	2	-4.5
Philadelphia Eagles	9.5	4.5*	-5
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.5	12	+2.5
San Francisco 49ers	10.5	6	-4.5
Seattle Seahawks	9.5	12	+2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9.5	11	+1.5
Tennessee Titans	8.5	11	+2.5
Washington Football Team	5	7	+2

Team	WAP
Green Bay Packers	+4.5

Buffalo Bills	+4
Miami Dolphins	+4

Cleveland Browns	+2.5
Kansas City Chiefs	+2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	+2.5
Seattle Seahawks	+2.5
Tennessee Titans	+2.5

Washington Football Team	+2

Indianapolis Colts	+1.5
Los Angeles Rams	+1.5
New Orleans Saints	+1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+1.5

Arizona Cardinals	+0.5
Las Vegas Raiders	+0.5

Chicago Bears	0

Baltimore Ravens	-0.5
Carolina Panthers	-0.5
New York Giants	-0.5

Cincinnati Bengals	-1
Los Angeles Chargers	-1

Detroit Lions	-2
Minnesota Vikings	-2
New England Patriots	-2

Denver Broncos	-2.5

Atlanta Falcons	-3.5
Houston Texans	-3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	-3.5

Dallas Cowboys	-4

New York Jets	-4.5
San Francisco 49ers	-4.5

Philadelphia Eagles	-5

The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs are now over, and there's a lot to really think about. In this mock draft, I have a few trades, including a block buster to help find the successor for a QB headed for Canton, as well as a blockbuster deal in which a team that is currently at dumpster fire status get's their lost draft capita back. Here's the mock draft.
1 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Nothing to say here. They didn't call this season 'Tank for Trevor' for nothing, now did they?
2 - New York Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
TRADE - Dolphins send 3rd overall pick to the New Orleans Saints, in exchange for 28th overall pick in 2020, Saints' 2nd round pick in 2020, Saints' 3rd round pick in 2020, Saints' 1st round pick in 2021, Saints 3rd round pick in 2021, and Saints 4th round pick in 2021, and maybe more...
3 - New Orleans Saints - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
The Drew Brees era has ended in New Orleans after a long, and impressive run. At 42 years of age, Brees walks away from the game as 13x pro bowler, a two time OPOTY winner, a super bowl champion (2009), and many other accolades and accomplishments under his belt. With the greatest QB in Saint's history now gone, it's time for New Orleans to fill in the big shoes left by the legend. The Saints are in no position to blow up their roster and tank in the wake of Brees' apparent retirement. They've got a 20+ million dollar WR in Michael Thomas, one of the highest paid RBs in Alvin Kamara, a star-studded OL, a great defense featuring Cameron Jordan, the breakout Trey Hendrickson, Demario Davis, Marshon Lattimore, and Malcolm Jenkins. This team really can't afford to tank for a top QB in 2022 like Sam Howell, or Spencer Rattler. What they can afford, is to give up a lot to receive a lot in Justin Fields. While his 2020 season wasn't anything to ride home about, Justin Fields is still more than likely going to have a great career in the NFL, and frankly what better place for him to go than the Big Easy, which will have a fantastic team around him unlike many other high end QBs in the draft. New Orleans will most certainly be giving up their first round picks for this year, and next year in order to land the coveted college football superstar, and set up their franchise for possibly another 12-15 years.
4 - Atlanta Falcons - Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
QB is at the top of Atlanta's wishlist, but if they are unable to land neither Wilson, nor Fields, then Atlanta could target one of the biggest receiving talents in CFB history, in Devonta Smith to create the best WR core in the entire NFL. Reportedly, Julio Jones has been the center of trade discussions with the Falcons, as they enter a new era after firing coach Dan Quinn. If Julio goes, then Smith, who is wickedly talented at route running, & separation, could provide the Falcon's receiving department with more than enough insurance if Jones departs. If Jones doesn't leave, then you've still got a ridiculous WR trio for at least the next two years, until Calvin Ridley hits free agency.
5 - Cincinnati Bengals - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Sewell is a generational talent at OT, and if the former Outland Trophy winner were to fall to the Bengals at #5, then it's a no-brainer to get him to protect Burrow. Sewell is just 20 years old, he has plenty of room to improve, and with his youth, he could have a 15+ year career barring any injury.
6 - Philadelphia Eagles - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Jalen Hurts has some promise in Philly, but he needs some targets. Neither Desean Jackson, nor Alshon Jeffrey can stay healthy, and all you have left is Greg Ward, who is becoming a free agent, and Travis Fulgham who fell off hard after a pretty impressive four game stretch earlier this year. It's time for Philadelphia to get a new WR1, and LSU's Ja'Marr Chase has all of the makings to be the next big thing in Philly. Chase's ridiculous 2019 campaign was so good, that he didn't even need to play in 2020 in order to cement his status as a top 10 pick. It's universally agreed that he is a top 10 level prospect, and his rookie year in Philly should be special.
7 - Detroit Lions - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
The three top receivers for Detroit will become free agents. While the Lions will likely retain at least one of them (probably going to be Golliday), they will need to reload in this department in order to keep their offense up. Jaylen Waddle was on pace for a ridiculous 2020 season, up until he broke his ankle last October, but in the games we did see him, he was arguably just as unguardable as Devonta Smith. While Smitty was the precise tactician in that stacked Bama receiving corps, Waddle was the dynamite playmaker, who was one of the top downfield threats in the country. Waddle will most certainly make Detroit explosive upon arrival.
8 - Carolina Panthers - Micah Parson, LB, Penn State
I originally had Carolina taking Isaiah Simmons last season, but they passed on him for Derrick Brown instead. Ever since the departure of Luke Kuechly, the team has been in dire need of a leader at LB, and Penn State's Micah Parsons is the one to do it. Parsons can play the Panthers system, and his quickness, and instincts are incredible for the position.
TRADE - Denver Broncos send 9th overall pick + more to the Houston Texans in exchange for QB Deshaun Watson, + a late draft pick.
9 - Houston Texans - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
The second big shocker of the night. In this scenario, Denver wins the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes, and in return Houston gets its lost draft capita from the O'Brien era. Houston could use this pick to get a lineman like Slater, or a DB like Surtain or Farley, but Kyle Pitts at this point is the best overall player on the board, and he's one of the best TE prospects to come out in a good while. Pitts will likely be the top receiver for Houston, even as a rookie, Deshaun Watson gets an acceptable trade for his sake, and Denver FINALLY gets its QB of the future. This was my favorite move on this mock draft.
10 - Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Completely unrelated, but I just wanted check in and see if y'all were still them boys...nah I'm just kidding. But in all honesty, the Cowboys need some help in their secondary, since they just lost Byron Jones a year ago, and Chidobe Awuzie, plus a few others enter free agency, leaving just 2nd year man Trevon Diggs by himself. Reunite him with his former college teammate, Patrick Surtain II, the son of Patrick Sr, who was a 3x pro bowler as a DB during his time in the league. Surtain is a smooth operating corner, whose efforts with the Tide in 2020 earned him SEC DPOTY honors.
11 - New York Giants - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
I think that the G-Men will get some pass rushing help in free agency, by way of someone like Haason Reddick or Matt Judon. If they do that, which they probably will, then they can go after the stud LB prospect of Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who had a huge 2020 season, winning the Butkus award, and helping Notre Dame make it to the College Football Playoff. JOK has some fantastic instincts, and some frightening closing speed to attack the backfield, and make plays. Not to mention, he is small enough to where he can drop back into coverage, but big enough not to get pushed around.
12 - San Francisco 49ers - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
It's become evident that Jimmy G just isn't the guy to hold the reins for the 49er offense in the coming years. He's pretty average as an NFL QB in general, and he's well below average for a QB that has a nine figure contract, and on top of that, he has played only one full season as the starter with San Fran, missing 13 games in 2018, and 10 games in 2020. While I expect Jimmy G to start next year, I think it's time for San Fran to get the next guy for the job. Mac Jones, a Heisman finalist this past season had just about as perfect of a season you could have for a college QB. Jones has pinpoint accuracy, and terrific decision making. I think that Jones will stew behind Garoppolo, and get coached up in his rookie season, then he will eventually get turned lose, in the 49ers offense.
13 - Los Angeles Chargers - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
Slater has risen up draft boards from 2nd round status, to early 1st round status without even playing game during 2020. Many scouts highlight his brilliant performance against Ohio State in 2019, in which he stifled current NFL star edge rusher Chase Young in their showdown. Slater is versatile enough to play at OG as well, which is really where the Chargers could use some help at right now.
14 - Minnesota Vikings - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
Minnesota's ability to protect Kirk Cousins was not too good in 2020. Cousins was sacked 39 times last season. Christian Darrisaw is one of the best offensive tackles in the class with good size for the position, and a ton of praise from scouts around the country.
15 - New England Patriots - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
The Patriots could use some help up front for their DL. They allowed the 7th most rushing yards in the entire league across all of last regular season, allowing around 131 yards per game. When you compete in a conference that has runners like Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, the entire Ravens backfield, Josh Allen when he feels dangerous, and even Kansas City who isn't really bad at the run themselves, then you need to do what you can to slow that down. Meet Christian Barmore, the massive Alabama defensive lineman who gained a ton of positive attention thanks to his dominant performance against Ohio State in the national championship game. Barmore, in my opinion has ascended to the top of the IDL big board, thanks to his disruptiveness, his shocking quickness, and his ability to rush the passer, as well as a disrupt the running game make him a great get for the New England Patriots at 15th overall.
16 - Arizona Cardinals - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Now while I did say that Najee Harris was the best RB in this class, I just feel that Travis Etienne fits the Cardinal's system more than Najee. Etienne reminds me a lot of Kenyan Drake, who hits free agency this spring. He's a long built, yet quick runner with a keen ability to catch the football. Etienne could make Arizona's defense a legit threat in the coming years.
17 - Las Vegas Raiders - Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami
When it comes to drafting in the first round, the Raiders do their own thing. They've always been one to reach with their first round selection, showing this with picks like Kolton Miller, Karl Joseph, Damon Arnette, and most infamous as of recent, Clelin Ferrell, who they picked over Josh Allen, which I am still frustrated about to this day. I don't see the Raiders leaving this odd, and borderline comedic trend behind in Oakland, and as a matter of fact, I can see history repeating itself year after year. Jaelan Phillips, who used to play for UCLA, and was a 5 star prospect in high school, finally seemed to hit his stride after dealing with many injuries, and transferring across the country to Miami. Phillips athletic ability, and natural pass rushing tools were on display in the latter half of Miami's 2020 season, and while Phillips currently has a 2nd round grade, I don't see this stopping the Raiders from passing on him over other players projected to go in round 1 (however I think there is a lot more upside to Phillips than past 1st round picks by the Raiders).
18 - Miami Dolphins - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
I've become extremely impressed with Nagurski Award winner, Zaven Collins, a defender that combines a staggering amount of size (6'4", 260 lbs), and a surprising amount of speed, and mobility in coverage that makes Collins such a difficult player to face. Collins can be an excellent addition to the Dolphins defense.
19 - Washington Football Team - Trey Lance, QB, ND State
Washington is one QB away from being a legitimate contender in the NFC; not a 7-9 division leader, not fringe wild card team, a legit contender. Do I think this happens within a year? No. If Washington ends up with Trey Lance, they must use him right. He needs to be brought up in the shadows of a veteran QB for at least a season, before getting on the field, similar to what Kansas City did with Patrick Mahomes. The starter for that KC team with rookie Mahomes was Alex Smith. The potential starter for this team with a rookie Trey Lance: Alex Smith. Of course with the depletion of Smith's career because of that brutal leg injury in 2018, Smith may not be playing for Washington despite an inspiring comeback season, potentially the greatest comeback season ever for any NFL player.
20 - Chicago Bears - Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
The Outland Trophy winner for Alabama has moved around the entire line like many linemen do under coach Nick Saban. The Bears need some help up front, and Leatherwood is an extremely versatile option who is as good of a run blocker as they come.
21 - Indianapolis Colts - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
T.Y. Hilton, who has really fallen off recently, as well as Zach Pascal, are both free agents for Indy. The only guy they've got is Michael Pittman, who they drafted just last year. While I expect big things from the former USC standout in his sophomore season, this WR group needs a ton of assistance due to it's lack of diversity. Ohio State's Chris Olave was one of Justin Fields' favorite targets across the QB's two year career with the Buckeyes. Olave is sound route runner, with good hands, and solid ability in getting separation.
22 - Tennessee Titans - Azeez Ojulari, LB, Georgia
My team, the Tennessee Titans is probably the most desperate team for a franchise pass rusher. Seeing this pass rush week in, and week out was painful. They recorded the 3rd least sacks, and opposing QBs averaged a 97.5 passer rating (9th highest), when facing Tennessee. The weak pass rush gave QBs more time to make throws downfield, thus tiring the secondary, and making the defense slower. Azeez Ojulari is one of the better LB prospects in this draft class, showing the ability to play standup, but also along the edge, which is where he did really well at in his last season with the Bulldogs. Check out his games against Tennessee, and Alabama, and you will see how he was able to outclass many offensive linemen in those two games.
TRADE - New York Jets send 23rd overall pick to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for the 26th overall pick, as well as a mid round pick in either 2021 or 2022.
23 - Cleveland Browns - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
The Browns could be looking for a complementary edge rusher for Myles Garrett with Olivier Vernon departing in free agency. Vernon surged late in 2020, but a very unfortunate achilles injury derailed his hopes to make some more noise in the post season. Kwity Paye, who was projected to go 2nd-3rd round after 2019, exploded thanks to a chaotic performance against Minnesota, in which he had 3 sacks in a row on a 4th qtr drive. While Paye may have small stature, he has enough upside that should make Cleveland want to roll the dice on him.
24 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Pittsburgh has struggled to run the football. They were dead last in total rushing yards as a team, with the 5th least total rushing attempts, and the least YPC (3.6). James Conner and Benny Snell just don't seem to have the answers. But my solution is for Pittsburgh to dip into the pool known as RBU, aka Alabama. Najee Harris was the Doak Walker winner for a reason, becoming a wrecking ball bruiser, that just so happens to be able to catch the ball really well, and jump over defenders that are standing straight up. Najee can help make Big Ben, or the next Steeler QB's job easier with his versatile skillset for the position.
25 - Jacksonville Jaguars* - Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish have provided some of the best linemen in the NFL, like Ronnie Stanley, Zack Martin, and Quenton Nelson to name a few. Liam Eichenberg made the first team all ACC, and was a consensus All-American in 2020. He has overall very sound fundamentals, and I actually think he has the potential to be a legitimate lineman in the NFL.
26 - New York Jets* - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
As previously mentioned, the Jets will be selecting Zach Wilson with the 2nd overall pick. With Breshad Perriman entering free agency, the Jets need a receiving facelift in order to provide Wilson with the much needed tools for success. Bateman appears to have the potential to be a WR1, and help give the Jet's atrocious offense something to be excited about.
27 - Baltimore Ravens - Terrace Marshall Jr, WR, LSU
The latest product of LSU, Marshall has been regularly playing since last year, getting reps alongside Ja'Marr Chase, and current pro bowl WR Justin Jefferson. The Ravens offense will get jolt of energy from Marshall, who is impressively built for the position, and who has a keen ability to run routes well.
28 - Miami Dolphins* - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
The Dolphins use their second 1st round pick of the draft to help protect Tua. Samuel Cosmi has the positional versatility of a Bama lineman, with the build of the ideal OT. His large stature towers at 6'7", over 300 lbs. He'll add some legit experience points.
29 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Joseph Ossai, LB, Texas
Thanks to the Buccaneers, I was right about TB (both the team and the player) pulling the upset in NOLA. Regardless, at the end of this season, the Bucs need to fill some much anticipated holes this offseason, and many players are likely gone. If Shaquil Barrett is one of those, then Tampa needs an edge rusher, and they need one pronto.
30 - Kansas City Chiefs - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
The Chiefs are about as perfect as you can get on offense, but some help up front won't hurt at all. Vera-Tucker from USC showed that he has the skill to play at IOL, and OT. While he is built for OG.
31 - Buffalo Bills - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
A draft pick like this could be a steal for Buffalo, with Nick Bolton providing several bolts of energy, and momentum into these nights. Bolton is a quick, powerful linebacker, and one of the SEC's finest.
32 - Green Bay Packers - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
If your name is either Green Bay, Buffalo, or Kansas City then you can really get under the skin of defensive coordinators by taking this guy. Rondale Moore when healthy, is a juggernaut, who is one of the best receivers after the catch. If the Packers decide to finally take a WR in round1, then the earth could shatter.

THANK YOU FOR READING, COMMENT WHAT YOU THINK, GOOD NIGHT

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How many games will the Las Vegas Raiders win in the 2020 NFL season?We look at BetMGM‘s projected win total and the Over/Under odds, while looking back at the 2019 season and key offseason roster changes.. Las Vegas Raiders’ 2019 season. Record: 7-9 (3rd in the AFC West) Against the spread record: 8-8. Over/Under record: 7-9 After three straight losses, the New England Patriots’ win total has dropped to 7.5, with -121 juice on the under. The winless New York Jets sit at the bottom of the board, with 1.5 projected wins and almost equal odds on the over and under. Oct. 7 Update: Don’t look now, but the Browns might just be a 10-win team this year. At least We also predict their exact win total for the upcoming season. Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Tuesday, June 2 at 10:30 a.m. ET. Will the Las Vegas Raiders make the 2020 NFL playoffs? Yes: +240 | No: -304 The Raiders improved quite a bit last season after going just 4-12 in 2018. The oddsmakers have updated the NFL season win total odds for each team. Our football expert handicaps the NFL OVER/UNDER win totals for 2020. The 2020 NFL season is past the halfway point, and online sportsbook [operator-link-sportsbook:44:BetOnline] has updated its NFL win t If Las Vegas is an underdog, you would win your bet if the Raiders win the game or if they lose by 4-points or less. Point spreads often have odds of -110, so a $11 bet wins $10. However, if the oddsmaker charges more vig on the odds, or taxes the bettor to take a preferred number or to keep the spread on a key number like 3 or 7, then the The betting odds and analysis have the Raiders as a 3-point favorite with a total down to 53.5 points. The moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook is Raiders -157 and Chargers +138. NFL Preview for 2020 Las Vegas Raiders Win Total Predictions and future betting odds 3-28-2020: Keep visiting Cappers Picks for NFL odds, and free picks. The Raiders regular season win total is set at 7.5 with the juice on the under at -115. However, McEwan examined the Raiders lookahead spreads for all of their games this season, translated them to implied probabilities and summed them up, and the numbers suggest ‘Under’ is the right play. Las Vegas Raiders 2019 Win Total Odds: 6 2018 Wins: 4; Week 1 vs Denver. The Raiders and Broncs split their two regular season meetings in 2018 with the home team winning each time and I expect the same for these longtime division rivals in 2019. Projected win record: 2-4 Week 8 at Browns. Opponent win total: 8.5 Prediction: This is a tough test for the Raiders, as they head to Cleveland with their starting quarterback's job on the line

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Oakland Raiders vs Tennessee Titans Predictions, Picks, and Odds for their showdown on Sunday, December 8 from RingCentral Coliseum, Oakland. Direct from Las Vegas, the WagerTalk handicapping crew ... YEET and LAZAR Merch - https://shoplazar.com/----SOCIAL MEDIA----TWITTER - https://goo.gl/Amqx54INSTAGRAM - https://goo.gl/gGzFf1 Raiders Rumors: Maxx Crosby 4 Sacks DROY, Raiders 2020 NFL Draft Needs After Week 11 Win vs. Bengals - Duration: 16:01. Las Vegas Raiders Report 12,456 views 16:01 2020 Las Vegas Raiders Season Win Total Prediction, NFL Odds and Free NFL PicksGET VERNON CROY'S PREMIUM SPORTS PICKS 100% FREE HERE: https://www.docsports.c... Chiefs, Steelers solidify themselves as Super Bowl favorites; Raiders sit at 80-1 odds to win title Tomb Raider Big Bonus Wayne Penrose. Loading ... Changing odds on a Pachislo - Duration: ... Double Ten Times Pay slot win - Duration: 0:10. djsher1 556 views. Tonys Picks website provides sports information from an odds angle. Point spread analysis with informative previews are posted daily by our veteran team of writers and handicappers in the industry.

Raiders And Chargers Thursday Night Football Odds, Picks

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d20 NRL Off Season Premiership SPLIT ROUND 13 is here - can PAR stay top? Roll!

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Specs:

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Reviews:

1-hour review:

1-day review:

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WIN IN THE STORM (easy wins) - YouTube