- Know the smart, sharp sportsbooks. Many aren't in the United States. If you're serious about betting on sports, then, simply put, you have to know the sharp books. Who's lines can you trust? Pinnacle, 5dimes, and Betfair exchange (for most sports) are great. They take lots of volume, have very tight lines, and are very efficient. They get many, many multiples the volume of Fanduel, DraftKings, and other US sportsbooks. You can't bet on them if you are in the U.S. since they are offshore, but you look at them to determine what are good betting opportunities. If Pinnacle and other sharp books all make a game +110/-120, then you should be pretty thrilled to buy the favored team for +100 on Fanduel (as an example). A (maybe?) decent analogy - if some stock is trading $300 on major exchanges with tons of volume, and somebody says they'll sell it to you at $290, then that sounds pretty good...Arbitrage exists in sports betting, and that's fantastic. Take advantage of it. Use efficient markets to make cash off the inefficient markets of US sportsbooks. Take the profitable bets when they arise.
Everything is obviously my opinion, but, hey, I have at least a little credibility in the space ;) Message me any questions you have on any of these topics as well
Fanduel Profit & Loss
- Again, sports betting is all about probability (law of large numbers...). In every game, there is always a price I'd buy both teams. If Was Football is currently trading +380 vs. the Bucs in major markets, I'd happily buy them +450 if I could find it on Fanduel or Barstool or whatever. I'd also happily but the Bucs -300. No team is 100% to win (lol Rams Jets). If a team is +1500, they only need to win 1/16 of times for you to break even. And, similarly, if a team is -1500, they need to win 15/16 times for you to break even. That's an important consideration for anybody parlaying favorites...Remember the relationship between implied probability and sportsbook odds. Let's say a sharp book like Pinnacle makes an NBA game -120/+110: that means that favored team is roughly (120/220+110/210)/2 to win the game. That's the breakeven odds, the fair odds, from that book. Of course, lines could be slanted, and it gets more complicated for certain wagers, but you get the point. You can also use these sharp betting sites to price "odds boosts" and other promotions. If a boost is "Lakers & Mavs" to win +290, then back out the probability the Lakers win, and the probability the Mavs win, from Pinnacle or another sharp sportsbook. Multiply the probabilities (the games are independent), then calculate the implied odds. If Mavs/Lakers parlay is trading +320, don't bet it, you're getting bad odds. If it's trading +250, bet it, it is profitable (EV per $ = 1/3.5 x 2.9 + 2.5/3.5 x -1).
- My go to resource: Sportsbook review (I have 0 affiliation, some random company). No need to spend money on upgrades at all, I don't pay for anything on their platform, I just use it. They show you real time odds from sharp overseas sportsbooks so you can follow line movements. As an example, let's say the Titans pop to +140 fair odds (they're trading like +185 right now) on a variety of sharp sportsbooks, then I'll try to buy some Titans +175 on whatever US sportsbook I can before the line moves. When lines move, they are highlighted in bright red on the site which is very useful. There are tons, tons of other resources I use to pick off books and find good bets, but this is the #1 most valuable, free resource.
- There's basically never a deposit bonus (or DraftKings "mission") that's not worth it. I've had play throughs of 10x for sportsbook for 50% deposit bonuses, etc. The sportsbook thinks they are making money because they're winning the vig. But not with us ;) Use sportsbookreview to find lines that look good. I have an arbitrage bot to show me all market arbs, then I'll just bet the +EV side. Pretty easy to get significant volume on any book since none of the US books are particularly good at setting & adjusting lines...Betting more volume also = higher probability of getting VIP promotions = more promotions = more money for you.
- I know I've said this before in other discussions, but consider the longevity of your account. Before max betting an error on Fanduel, realize that Fanduel has limited tens of thousands of bettors at this point, and you could be next. Do you love all those dope promos and odds boosts? Would kind of suck to get $2 on them (my experience...) for one good bet. Betting errors for massive size is a sure-fire way to get limited quick. Again, I've said this before, so sorry for the repeat, but this is a critical point. $500 now is NOT worth it for an account worth thousands per month.
- Use free bets and profit boosts on long shots that look good to sharp markets on Pinnacle, etc. It's mathematically optimal. Never, please never, put a free bet or profit boost on a +100 wager.
- If you are arbing, realize that, overall, you're just making a ton of profitable bets and unprofitable bets to make a little bit of profit. There's always a profitable side. If you can tolerate some risk, it's more profitable to just bet the side that's good (of course) Otherwise, you're typically giving up like 3.5% to get out of your risk, and losing that profit margin. It all averages out anyways... Example: Fanduel is +190 Rockets, DraftKings -170 Mavs. Every other smart book on SportsBookReview is -210/+240. Just bet the Mavs. Who wants to buy a team +190 trading around +225? Lost profit margin.
- Don't watch games you bet big on. Just frustrating when you lose. Consider your mental health. It's random - sometimes you catch a bad beat, sometimes you get lucky. Just make good bets.
- Join a community of smart bettors. Spit ball bet ideas off each other. Use math and liquid lines to price wagers. There are dozens of +EV prop bets every day. Find them, just takes a bit of effort.
Dang, well, a lot, a lot more to write, but will keep it there for now. Feel free to message me any questions. Just the start of US sports betting.
Let me know what else is helpful. Happy to write about / share whatever. Let's make cash ladies and gents.
submitted by stats_and_sports to sportsbetting [link] [comments] Everything is obviously my opinion, but, hey, I have at least a little credibility in the space ;) Message me any questions you have on any of these topics as well
Fanduel Profit & Loss
- Again, sports betting is all about probability (law of large numbers...). In every game, there is always a price I'd buy both teams. If Was Football is currently trading +380 vs. the Bucs in major markets, I'd happily buy them +450 if I could find it on Fanduel or Barstool or whatever. I'd also happily but the Bucs -300. No team is 100% to win (lol Rams Jets). If a team is +1500, they only need to win 1/16 of times for you to break even. And, similarly, if a team is -1500, they need to win 15/16 times for you to break even. That's an important consideration for anybody parlaying favorites...Remember the relationship between implied probability and sportsbook odds. Let's say a sharp book like Pinnacle makes an NBA game -120/+110: that means that favored team is roughly (120/220+110/210)/2 to win the game. That's the breakeven odds, the fair odds, from that book. Of course, lines could be slanted, and it gets more complicated for certain wagers, but you get the point. You can also use these sharp betting sites to price "odds boosts" and other promotions. If a boost is "Lakers & Mavs" to win +290, then back out the probability the Lakers win, and the probability the Mavs win, from Pinnacle or another sharp sportsbook. Multiply the probabilities (the games are independent), then calculate the implied odds. If Mavs/Lakers parlay is trading +320, don't bet it, you're getting bad odds. If it's trading +250, bet it, it is profitable (EV per $ = 1/3.5 x 2.9 + 2.5/3.5 x -1).
- My go to resource: Sportsbook review (I have 0 affiliation, some random company). No need to spend money on upgrades at all, I don't pay for anything on their platform, I just use it. They show you real time odds from sharp overseas sportsbooks so you can follow line movements. As an example, let's say the Titans pop to +140 fair odds (they're trading like +185 right now) on a variety of sharp sportsbooks, then I'll try to buy some Titans +175 on whatever US sportsbook I can before the line moves. When lines move, they are highlighted in bright red on the site which is very useful. There are tons, tons of other resources I use to pick off books and find good bets, but this is the #1 most valuable, free resource.
- There's basically never a deposit bonus (or DraftKings "mission") that's not worth it. I've had play throughs of 10x for sportsbook for 50% deposit bonuses, etc. The sportsbook thinks they are making money because they're winning the vig. But not with us ;) Use sportsbookreview to find lines that look good. I have an arbitrage bot to show me all market arbs, then I'll just bet the +EV side. Pretty easy to get significant volume on any book since none of the US books are particularly good at setting & adjusting lines...Betting more volume also = higher probability of getting VIP promotions = more promotions = more money for you.
- I know I've said this before in other discussions, but consider the longevity of your account. Before max betting an error on Fanduel, realize that Fanduel has limited tens of thousands of bettors at this point, and you could be next. Do you love all those dope promos and odds boosts? Would kind of suck to get $2 on them (my experience...) for one good bet. Betting errors for massive size is a sure-fire way to get limited quick. Again, I've said this before, so sorry for the repeat, but this is a critical point. $500 now is NOT worth it for an account worth thousands per month.
- Use free bets and profit boosts on long shots that look good to sharp markets on Pinnacle, etc. It's mathematically optimal. Never, please never, put a free bet or profit boost on a +100 wager.
- If you are arbing, realize that, overall, you're just making a ton of profitable bets and unprofitable bets to make a little bit of profit. There's always a profitable side. If you can tolerate some risk, it's more profitable to just bet the side that's good (of course) Otherwise, you're typically giving up like 3.5% to get out of your risk, and losing that profit margin. It all averages out anyways... Example: Fanduel is +190 Rockets, DraftKings -170 Mavs. Every other smart book on SportsBookReview is -210/+240. Just bet the Mavs. Who wants to buy a team +190 trading around +225? Lost profit margin.
- Don't watch games you bet big on. Just frustrating when you lose. Consider your mental health. It's random - sometimes you catch a bad beat, sometimes you get lucky. Just make good bets.
- Join a community of smart bettors. Spit ball bet ideas off each other. Use math and liquid lines to price wagers. There are dozens of +EV prop bets every day. Find them, just takes a bit of effort.
Dang, well, a lot, a lot more to write, but will keep it there for now. Feel free to message me any questions. Just the start of US sports betting.
Let me know what else is helpful. Happy to write about / share whatever. Let's make cash ladies and gents.
