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We need to talk about NOK

We need to talk about NOK
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Feb 4, mid-market: Thank you everyone for your support. I really don't know what to say. The company keeps getting pounded because GME is having a sell-off, which doesn't make any sense. But that's the market for you. It doesn't always make sense.
I still believe 2021 will be a big year for Nokia, although it doesn't look like there is any way we'll manage the crazy play anymore. Still, it was nice to see something that was impossible become possible, even if it was for only a few days.
And remember, we can still do it any day. All it takes is for us to work together. If you want. Make up your own mind.
I'm still holding. NOK will recover from this. Fair value is at least 4.81, and way more when 5G really gets going. So if you can, I would buy some more now. You'll thank me later for the tip. It may not be the most exciting play, but it is what investing is all about. Slow and steady growth that compounds to make a big change.
One of these days I'll be able to post again, when the mods lift the restrictions on new posts and things get a little less crazy around here. When I post again about NOK, I'll post the link here too. Thanks everyone!
Feb 4 premarket: Earnings out! They beat expectations a bit, their revenue was a little smaller than expected. Overall, good quarter, good year. Here it is: https://www.nokia.com/system/files/2021-02/nokia_results_2020_q4.pdf
Feb 2, end of day: It's getting pretty crazy out there, but here's what you should know. The NOK chart is following the GME chart. It's got way more shares so the bumps and dips are more stable, but that's the main trend.
What that means: GME has no underlying value at this level. It is a gamble on the short squeeze. It might pay off, or it might not. If people panic sell like yesterday, it won't.
NOK is very different. It has underlying value. So if someone dumps it below its target price, the best thing to do is just to buy and wait for the value to go down. Thursday NOK reveals its earnings, and they are likely to be good based on what Ericsson revealed. Ericsson is one of its main competitors and a very similar company currently trading at twice the NOK price.
Feb 1, end of day: Told you it was a value share! Still trading at target, still low risk.
Either dumping has stopped, or normies are piling in because of the results. Either way good news, hope you made some money today!Vol today 190m, still way above average. Normal average 30m before we changed it lol. That means since Wednesday over 2bn shares have changed hands. Hope you got em!
Ericsson (NOK competitor) results suggest NOK will report good numbers this week, NOK upped to BUY on market watch: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nokia-upped-to-buy-after-ericsson-results-2021-02-01
Unless my math is retarded (which it is cos ahmsodumb), if everyone (7m) on this sub spends $3000 at current price ($4.55) we BUY THE FLOAT. The more they keep dumping, the more shares we get cheap. Think about it.EDIT: buying the ENTIRE float is NOT the point of this play. I know share price goes up when supply is restricted, just read the play. This is just an example of what happens when they dump a value share on millions of retail investors.
BLACKROCK IS IN PEOPLE: https://fintel.io/so/us/nok/blackrock
Robin hood increases NOK allowance to 2000 shares for next week (still any allowance is CRAZY because it's a VALUE SHARE THAT HASN'T BUBBLED) https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/changes-due-to-recent-market-volatility/?fbclid=IwAR2SK9VQOI_eBgBF0SK4-R1eQjBkSAe3sd6KMwSBaCPmz38e5cc8siRdhEY
You dump a VALUE STOCK on me and think I'm in danger?
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Added new summary (30 Jan), and Q&A.
FIRST OFF: This post is not financial advice or anything except the rant of some idiot retard who is an idiot. I tell you straight up that there is a normal investment side to the NOK play (STILL MEANS RISK, which YOU will have to decide!) and that there is a CRAZY side that is PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE. If you want to play the crazy play then you’re also a crazy retard idiot just like me.
I don’t know shit, I just look at graphs and go WOW. Do your own due diligence, I am not a financial advisor. Don’t ask me if you should buy, I don’t know, can you afford to? Are you comfortable with the risks? I don’t know these things. You do.
NOK PLAY:
Here’s how it works. YOU DECIDE if you want to take part.
1.It’s not a short squeeze like GME. Get that out of your head.
2.It’s a value/momentum play. The value part is just normal granny&grampa investing. See a good company going cheap, buy and hold. Tell your mom, dad, granny and grampa, cousins, relatives, friends.
3.The momentum part is the crazy part, and if it works the share will SKYROCKET as long as YOU DON’T SELL. GME is the biggest short squeeze in history, the NOK play could be the biggest value buy in history.
  1. The beauty of it is that it works because Wall St is dumping NOK irrationally. That’s why the price is going down (slowly). They think they’re attacking us and slowly winning, but they’re giving us a value share cheap = their money, our pockets. By the time they realize what we did, it will be too late.
  2. Don’t panic, and keep buying the dumps (if you think the company has value), and if we hold the line you could see a miracle.
3310 HANDS
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Value Part (crazy part in Q&A):
The company is healthy, has good financials, it’s a market leader in 5G (it’s main competitors are Huawei and Ericsson, they have about the same market share share of 5G) a lot of potential to be the company that builds 5G for a large part of the world. NOK is currently trading at a standard price for the value it holds. It is not a bubble.
Here’s Nokia’s 5G contracts: https://www.nokia.com/networks/5g/5g-contracts/
Here’s Bloomberg shitting bricks that we’ve realized that Nokia is a value bet: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-28/gamestop-may-be-a-reddit-wallstreetbets-game-but-nokia-sure-isn-t
Nokia also just unveiled new 1tb tech, the thing AFTER 5G. First on the world. They have it, they’re showing the world it works. Here is their press release from Wednesday: https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/nokia-and-elisa-push-network-boundaries-with-worlds-first-1t-deployment-2021-01-27
They are so trusted that NASA got them to build a cell network on the MOON. Literally. If you’re NASA, would you hire your retard uncle Earl to build cell towers on the moon? No, you hire someone who CAN ACTUALLY DO IT. Imagine what it takes to build something really big and complicated on the moon? Now imagine who’s the likely guy who can do it. That’s right, NOKIA. Here they are, going to the moon: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/
If the Huawei 5G war continues, who do you think US and Europe is going to back, especially since NOK already has the next tech, owns a bunch of patents, is from FINLAND that has never tried to take over the world and has a brand that EVERYONE who lived in 2000s remembers?
Here’s a guy who’s been doing the numbers for a while now in case you want to see them: https://www.reddit.com/useJimming/comments/l7f6ua/part_iv_option_chain_analysis_on_nok_and_why_you/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf I don’t know him, I don’t know the numbers as well, but looks pretty good to me. Amazing due diligence. But what do I know, I’m an idiot. So is he. So are you. We’re all fucking retards, just ask Wall Street. I poked myself in the same eye twice yesterday. We’re “dumb money”. They have other names for us too.
So, worst case, you just bought into a good company at a fair value. If the crazy play doesn’t work, you just hold on to them and let them become the world leader in 5G. Unlike GME (NOT SAYING SELL!), NOK will not fall 99%. Or if it does, I'M BUYING THAT SHIT because if a HEALTHY COMPANY FALLS 99% you make some CRAZY MONEY on that when it bounces back.
Q&A
Q: You retards were tricked by bots to buying NOK, there’s no short
A: This just full on doesn’t get what the play is about. IT IS NOT A SHORT SQUEEZE. THIS IS NOT GME RINSE REPEAT. GME IS A DIFFERENT PLAY. NOK IS A VALUE PLAY. How many more ways can I say it? Not sure. How many more do I have to?
Q: Stop taking attention away from GME you retards
A: Nobody is saying sell your GME. Nobody is saying that. GME is too expensive for a lot of people, and GME is VERY RISKY and NOK has genuine value behind it. If the NOK play works, those people who couldn’t afford GME can still get on & get rich. If it doesn’t, they most likely still make money on a good company.
Q: This play is impossible / crazy / it’ll never work / there are too many shares you retards
A: This is ALMOST true. This play WAS impossible until 1/27/2021. That is why nobody has EVER tried anything like this. But it’s NOT impossible anymore. Look at this graph. Look at it. See that spike? What the fuck is that? I’ll tell you my fellow autistic space boot packin 3310 using NOKSTER.
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https://preview.redd.it/v473xl00ghe61.png?width=2182&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf5aac455156dbadb919b80afacb5232af0a05b5
That spike was them running out of shares for half an hour. Trade was stopped until they could find more, to avoid an artificial spike in the price.
Proof? Look at the volumes. A small sale (red) causes a small dip. Two small buys cause a MASSIVE SPIKE. They ran out, and had to call their friends to liquidate more shares so the price wouldn’t skyrocket "artificially".
But that’s IMPOSSIBLE for NOK. NOK has 5bn shares. Nokia should be much more stable because it has so many shares, having a crazy demand spike is crazy. I saw it, and fell off my chair and since I’m such a retard it took me an hour to get back up.
So it was impossible, and that’s why Wall Street won’t see it coming. They think this is their attack and they’re about to break through our ranks, but they’re actually playing right into our hands.
Wendnesday, we moved 1bn shares. Thursday, when nobody could buy, we still moved 500m. Yesterday, we still moved 360m. We’ve moved so much NOK in the past three days, the average volume of the share has MORE THAN DOUBLED in THREE DAYS. The play is not impossible anymore, but Wall St thinks it is, which is how we can use their own strength and mass against them. But the value buy still makes sense WHENEVER you see someone dump a valuable share. Someone sells you a 100$ bill for 90$? Buy it.
They attack? We absorb. They dump, we buy, they run out of shares, we hold. They’re fucked, and they just handed us a bunch of value shares at an undervalue = they just gave us their money. They are just giving it to you. When they realize they can’t buy them back at a lower value, what do you think is going to happen?
Q: We don’t do value plays, we do short squeezes you retards
A: Go back to April. Look at u/DeepFuckingValue’s position. GME was a value play. It’s only in April that the Short Squeeze became possible. Look it up yourself.
Will a short squeeze also happen with NOK? It’s unlikely. Hedge Fund Assholes have been increasing their shorts in NOK in the last few days, but they won’t go over 100% on 5bn shares because they're not as stupid as me. But it doesn’t have to happen. We just need to buy the dumps. If they short, great. More money for us as long as we don’t let them drive the price down with the dumps.
Q: Why is NOK not rocketing?
A: Because Wall Street is dumping, just like I said they would after the Wednesday spike. That’s the whole plan. They dump, we hold the line, buy the dumps and keep the price steady.
The GME short squeeze guys waited for this for UP TO TWO YEARS. I saw it in April. I thought it was crazy. I didn’t jump in back then. If I did, I’d have about as much money as u/DeepFuckingValue. On a value share, you can afford to wait. GME was originally a value play. That’s what I should have realized in April.
SO JUST WAIT AND HOLD (if you believe and idiot like me, which you shouldn't, no need to message me about it). It’s been two days since this play even became possible.
Q: How do we know it’s working?
A: Look at the volume of shares traded. Nokia has 5bn shares. In the last three days, nearly 2bn have been traded. The price is still up from last week. That’s how.
This has already been a giant dumping campaign. How come the price hasn’t floored? What happens if we just buy it all up?
What happens if they run out, and then their shorts blow, the price bumps up, CNBC tells the world we broke another short wall, everyone piles on, Wall Street realizes they just gave us their shares at an undervalue and try to buy back, we don’t sell, we have all the shares? The Wednesday spike is what happens, except this time there is no stopping it. If they stop trading again and try to dump some more, you just buy up the dump and keep the spike going. Spike stops being a spike and becomes a floor.
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Q: Where will this max out and when?
A: What do you think I’m from the future? I just saw an impossible thing happen on Wednesday, and we need to make it happen again. Look at the graph. Look at it.
Set your targets to $3310, that should do it.
Q: When should I buy? What should I buy? Should I buy?
A: Be your own person. Buy when you feel like it, if you feel like it.
Q: Wall street bots are promoting NOK.
A: I don’t give a shit. If they are, and we keep buying, they are promoting giving us money.
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Part 2: (29 Jan)
First off, much as I appreciate the love, I can’t play your hand for you. You have to make your own decisions. Do I know where NOK is going to be tomorrow? Nope. Nobody does. All that I have for you is the news from Wednesday that this play is no longer totally impossible:
  1. I think the assholes are going to try to dump you out of the market
  2. It won’t work if we keep the demand up.
  3. The way we keep demand up is we buy, and others will follow us because the company is good.
  4. When they realize it won’t work, they’ll need to start buying back in.
  5. Then it’ll be too late, cos they dumped their shares on US and we are RETARDS who HOLD. That means that when their shorts start to go bust, the price will jump up (a little bit, not like with GME at first – this is a different play based on the health of the company, not a straight up short squeeze. The short position on NOK is much smaller).
  6. When the price jumps up, and the GME guys start cashing out, they need somewhere to put that cash. Some of them pay off student loans, or buy cars or whatever, but the smart ones will go NOK.
How you play it is up to you. I can’t tell you if you should buy, what minute to buy, what app to use and so on. All I can say is I buy the dumps. You need to decide for yourself if you want to do it. You can see the dumps on any app, or even yahoo finance. I buy NOK on NYSE, and I buy straight up shares (so they can’t lend out mine for shorts) but you’re free to do what you want. I’m a retard, you’re a retard, we’re all autistic fucks, we make up our own mind and stick with it.
Secondly, what I said yesterday morning would happen, did happen. And it happened exactly like I said it would. So don’t get scared off, just buy the dumps. And they know that they’ll be fucked if we keep buying the dumps. That’s why they stopped us from buying NOK.
NOK hasn’t bubbled, stopping us from buying NOK was because they know we’re on to them. They know the dumps won’t work if we JUST KEEP BUYING and HOLDING. The play works, they’re scared, we caught them with their pants down, they’re trying to get ahead of us.
OK, so about what happened yesterday with RH and others. I’m so fucking angry about this.
What RH and others did is completely insane. Their argument is “you guys are throwing your money away on a bubble, we’re just protecting you”. Bullshit. I won’t comment on GME, I’ll let u/DeepFuckingValue or one of those guys do that. I’ll just say, that short squeezes happen with hedge funds all the fucking time. Why is trading not stopped for them? They have people’s fucking pensions that they’re playing with.
But for NOK, it’s TOTAL BULLSHIT. Here’s why:
  1. NOK HAS NOT BUBBLED. Look at the graph. Look at it. It is still down from 2016. NOK is well within normal variation. Long term, you barely see the spike from a couple of days ago. There is nothing to “protect us” from. They’re protecting themselves.
  2. The NOK play is not a straight up short squeeze. The play is HELPED by the shorts that are there, as long as we can keep the demand up and keep the price up against the dumping, but that’s all.
  3. NOK is a healthy company, with new and important tech, a great brand, a lot of potential. You want to see why, read the original post. ANYONE who sees a company like that being dumped for NO REASON would buy. So should you. They are only dumping it because they’re trying to fuck up our play.
Ok that’s enough for now. I’ll see you all when I’ve got my space boots on, in my house on the FUCKING MOON, next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA with my broke ass. If this doesn’t work, then at least you TOOK ON THE MOTHERFUCKERS and EARNED A PLACE at the table with FUCKING ODIN.
UNBREAKABLE 3310!
ORIGINAL POST (28 Jan):
I get it, it’s not the play. I’m not saying sell your GME. I’m not a bot or a spy or a wall street asshole. I’m a regular guy who’s got a couple of bucks in his bank account and plays videogames and wants a fucking house to live in like my parents had when they were young. If you don’t agree with me, just say so.
I’m also not a financial advisor, so make up your own minds you autistic fucks.
But, BUT, yesterday we did something they’ve never seen. Yesterday, we made them run out of NOK shares. That’s what that big spike was, and that’s why trading was stopped for 2h. If we keep doing that, it will be the biggest wall street wealth transfer from assholes to retards in history. Because they will keep dumping it until it’s too late.
Impossible, you say. Too many shares, you say. Well listen up. Yesterday, in ONE DAY, we traded, or caused others to trade, 1bn shares of Nokia. That is 1/5 of all the Nokia shares in the world. That’s never happened, EVER. Not even when Nokia was the biggest phone company in the world.
3516.16% of average trading volume.
Do you get it? They’ll keep dumping their stock, we keep buying them cheap, and then they won’t be so cheap anymore when they try to buy back in. We can move 1bn shares IN A DAY. ONE DAY. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Why do they stop trading in NYSE? Cos they ran out of shares temporarily and they don’t want “artificial” spikes in the prices. So they made us retards wait a couple of hours while some assholes called some other assholes to unload their shares into the market, and once they had enough, they started again. That’s why that spike went down right after the freeze.
But then we did it again. And they had to stop again. The price just wouldn’t go down. The assholes who’d just unloaded shares were probably back on the phone with the other assholes who’d convinced them.
Everyone is watching us. What we do, millions of normal folks do with us, and every wallstreet asshole does against us.
What did the asshole brigade do? They started shorting NOK. They will continue to do that, because they think we’re retards (they are correct).
But how come the price didn’t go down? It’s got 5bn shares, and everyone whos ever held it was dumping it. How could we ever keep up the demand when there are so many shares out there? How is this going to work?
Because the retard brigade was buying it. There’s 3m of us and counting. If we each put 600 bucks on NOK, we get 100 shares, and that’s 300m shares.
Now imagine what happens if we put 6000 on it. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. And every dip you see, you buy more. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. They'll keep dumping, we keep buying, until they realize the price isn't going down. Then they start buying, we keep holding, the market runs out of NOK. Price skyrockets.
And normies outside were following us. They can see that the stock is still LOW, lower than 2016. This means they don’t think it’s a bubble that’s going to crash on them.
So why do the normies follow us on this, and not on GME? (I’m not saying sell GME).
Because GME has never, ever been anywhere near where it is now. That scares a normal guy who’s just trying to put in some savings for his family. They think this is some Dutch tulip market shit.
Not so with NOK. Even with the spike from yesterday, NOK is still DOWN from 2016. Remember 2016? Remember that being a really big year for Nokia? No, me neither. And let’s not even get started on where it has been in the past. Yesterday's spike barely shows on the graph.
You know what is going to be a big year? 2021 and 2022. Why?
What else did NOK say yesterday? Well, they revealed that they have a new kind of 1 terabit data transfer networks shit, what do I know, I’m not a techie. But it IS a new kind of technology that’s going to kick 5Gs ass. And my fellow retards of the most honorable retard brigade – Do you think we’re going to need more data this year than last year?
Remember how Netflix had to downgrade its picture quality in March because the networks couldn’t handle the amount people were streaming? What do you think is going to happen with the company that solves that?
But why would NOK be the company? Well, remember the 5G war with China?
US and Europe can’t buy 5G from China, because then China has our networks. But guess who US and Europe aren’t afraid of? Fucking FINLAND. Finland, the land of NOKIA. So tiny that some people think the whole country is a conspiracy theory and doesn’t really exist. Sorry Finnish people, nobody gives a shit about you. Good thing for you, cos you get to build the 5G network on the moon and shit because nobody is scared that Finland will take over the world.
Want proof? They are literally building one on the FUCKING MOON: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/
And we’re going to send them there. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
But hang on, why is NOK so low in the first place if it’s so great?
Answer: because Microsoft fucked them. That’s right, they sent one of their own assholes to infiltrate the NOK, leak a bunch shit to drive the share price down, and then buy the phone part of the company. These assholes wrecked the company, the Finnish economy, and every middle class shareholder who was just trying to put their kids to college. Imagine everyone who’d be fucked if someone did that to Apple now.
Worked like a charm. Firesale. Business restructuring. Lost their phones. NOK never recovered.
The asshole they sent from Microsoft? Went back to work for Microsoft, and was paid a shit ton of money for what he did. His name is Stephen Elop. Look it up.
So they have tech that nobody else has and a brand that everyone recognizes. But what don’t they have? Money. That’s why they’re building this 1tb magic network thing in tiny fucking possibly fake Finland to show everyone it works.
But if we drive the share price up, do you think that’s going to change?
So FUCK IT. I’m in for every penny, and I am HOLDING. I’ll see you in my house ON the MOON next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA you BEAUTIFUL RETARDED MOTHERFUCKERS.
TL;DR: NOK is literally going to the moon. Go there with them. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
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submitted by Mullernuller to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

$PLTR - The Big DDD

I don't get what you guys are worried about with PLTR.
Here's my personal DD on PLTR, you're welcome to read and do whatever you want. Other helpful info or pointing out mistakes in my DD is very welcome.
Fears preventing you from buying PLTR
  1. Targeted ads on your phone from Yahoo Finance or Zacks telling you PLTR = BAD!!!1!eleven
  2. Shills spamming "pLtR tO tHe MoOn" and :rocket: on PLTR thread comments.
  3. Last quarter's seemingly bad financials/earnings.
  4. Financials Moving Forwards
  5. Soros who owns 21 million shares "threatening" to sell his shares upon DPO expiry.
  6. DPO expiry 3 days after February's earnings and possible insiders and DPO holders sale and dip.
  7. What does PLTR tldr.
  8. Other Information
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#1 Targeted Ads
Ads and articles are both paid for by someone.The fact that in the past 3 weeks i've been getting multiple multiple targeted ads on my phone related to PLTR since i love PLTR so much.
Ads are telling me that PLTR is bad, doesn't provide a dividend, they're telling me PLTR's fair price is 20 instead of 25 based on some financial model and have gone as far as to provide a list of alternative stocks to buy.
To me, this all screams: SCARE TACTICS
Additionally, the last few weeks of ups and downs in PLTR's stock price is another indication of the attempts to short the stock to sh!t and drive investors out. (For what reason? I don't know.)
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#2 Shilling PLTR
I myself love to shill PLTR to people whenever i can. I do this because i legitimately think this company will do great. I work as a product manager in a software development house and understand what PLTR does. PLTR is not cryptic.Regardless, i think when people shill PLTR to you, they are right to do so as you're probably missing out on a great opportunity to make money in the long run. If you're looking for big gains short term, maybe try something else.
Shillery is OK, but at least give the facts.
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#3 Last Quarter's Bad Financials
If you'd done your DD not by searching reddit posts but by checking PLTR's actual quarterly report, you'd know that PLTR's "bad" last financial quarteearnings were due to the costs of listing themselves on the New York Stock Exchange.~855million were spent on listing and stock related compensations and this is the big reason.
Direct quote by PLTR here: https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2020/Palantir-Reports-Revenue-Growth-of-52-in-the-Third-Quarter-Raises-Full-Year-2020-Guidance/default.aspx
We incurred a loss from operations of $847.8 million, which includes $847.0 million in stock-based compensation following our recent direct listing.
I would like to remind everyone that this is a 1 TIME THING. Put simply, this means that PLTR won't have as excessive losses next quarter as they did this last quarter.
Additionally, let me go into further detail on this and not just leave it to that.
ADDITIONALLY...
PLTR also had a higher R&D cost this quarter that just passed. Normally they'd pay 80 million on R&D, but somehow ended up paying ~300 million this quarter. No one knows why, but this is another thing that influenced PLTR's earnings.
https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2020/Palantir-Reports-Revenue-Growth-of-52-in-the-Third-Quarter-Raises-Full-Year-2020-Guidance/default.aspx
On September 30, 2020, in connection with the Direct Listing, we incurred $769.5 million and $8.4 million of stock-based compensation using the accelerated attribution method related to the satisfaction of the performance-based vesting condition for RSUs and growth units, respectively, that had satisfied the service-based vesting condition as of such date.
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#4 PLTR financials moving forwards
PLTR is deep in bed with the government and the Biden regime although may look like it would be against using PLTR is in fact secretly very pro-surveillance e.g pro Palantir.
Here's some of the known organizations in the US Govt that use PLTR:
  1. CDC
  2. Office of the Secretary
  3. Food and Drug Administration
  4. Immigration and Customs Enforcements / ICE
  5. Internal Revenue Service / IRS
  6. National Institute on Drug Abuse
  7. DOD/ARMY - ACC Aberdeen Proving Ground
  8. Coast Guard / DHS
  9. DOD/NAVY - Naval Information Warfare Systems Command
  10. US Attorney's Offices / DOJ
  11. US Special Operations Command / SPEC OPS
Boys. The big institutional people know these things. You just found this out. See how deep PLTR is already in bed with the Government?????? Palantir IS the next Raytheon/Lockheed of DATA aggregation and visualization.
UPCOMING EARNINGS
I've done some quick maths and it looks like PLTR is more likely to be in positive earnings this quarter and with a 0.02 cent EPS target, we can easily assume that they'll destroy this with maybe 0.04 or 0.08 EPS. In the worst case scenario, PLTR's EPS this quarter could be somewhere around MINUS -0.05 ish due to interview costs and ad/campaigning costs that were not there before the company was listed.
WHAT CAN DESTROY PALANTIR
Now, there's big possible downsides and Palantir can fail IF contracts that expire are not renewed. That's biggest REAL reason for Palantir's balance sheet getting screwed.
I've seen a disturbing pattern with PLTR's financials and that's that every year, it's R&D cost is rising by between 150 and 350 million dollars. This is quite a bit of negative revenue and if new contracts are not constantly coming in, PLTR's balance can start going into the negative.
WHAT WILL NOT DESTROY PALANTIR
Some people may have concerns over the new left leaning government dumping PLTR. An article was posted that is behind a paywall EVERYWHERE that goes something like this:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/cdc-officials-urge-biden-team-to-dump-palantirs-covid-tracker
In my opinion, i believe this is inconsequential and that a few people crying to daddy Biden to kill a multimillion contract with PLTR is a stretch. Also we know the current new Biden team has his hands full and will have them full for at least the next 1 year with what's going on.
There is no time to deal with a few crybabies and even if he did deal with it and did decide to kill the PLTR Tiberius Covid tracker contract with the CDC which he WONT, these things take months and years to deal with, and by then the contract/s will have already brought PLTR tons of money and revenue in.
HOW MUCH DOES KARP AND HIS GOONS GET PAID
Short answer is... A LOT. The amounts below are PER YEAR. That's a lot of money in the hole and contributes to annoying amount to why PLTR is always just at the edge of just barely being profitable.
https://preview.redd.it/ba58nqcurob61.png?width=2615&format=png&auto=webp&s=55d45833faad4d60ea8dc142a9601c44b4cc7395
Palantir's prospectus 311 page document's 130 last pages are almost all exclusively talking about extremely complicated options trading schemes that are made by Cohen and others to make sure they can squeeze out a LOT of money out of PLTR.
Mithril Investments has existed from before and is not a new company. Owned by Thiel/Cohen/Karp as a way to launder and exchange options for more options and more money for all 3 of them. Also Shyam Sankar to me feels corrupt which scares me a bit, he's had some very shady dealings and has brought his wife in PLTR that gets paid 200k per year.
Prospectus Document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1321655/000119312520230013/d904406ds1.htm
I suggest you skim through it, it contains EVERYTHING about Palantir.
Palantir is going to need to have to be getting AT LEAST 500 million in NEW contracts per year to REMAIN BARELY profitable. It's doable in my opinion, but just barely and it's why they made the company public to try and get more people's attention and increase the inflow of contracts.
​
#5 Soros and his 21 million shares
First of all, i think we can all agree that Soros can suck it.
If you've read a few articles here and there, you'll know that Soros owns/owned 1% of Class A PLTR shares. No one knows whether he's sold them yet or if he's an DPO holder who'll sell 3 days after February's earnings.
Whether he sells them or buys more will be mostly inconsequential in my opinion. We see dips and pumps every day. He legally cannot sell his shares all at once, he'll have to sell certain amounts daily and over time. This will create annoying sideways motion as shares exchange hands and consolidation starts for 2-3 weeks until his and insider shares exchange hands.
Nothing special to see here, move along just a little draw down resulting in some consolidation.
PLTR is exposed to OIL more than anything, so fluctuations in the general market and general market crashes affect PLTR much less than other stocks. Also PLTR does not track ANY benchmarks. NONE.
​
#6 DPO expiry 3 days after earnings in February
To my limited knowledge, this is how BIG plays who are holding DPO shares usually work:
There's a total of 1.16Billion Class A PLTR shares currently (Give or take don't flog me). We are currently trading with ~250 million shares while the rest are locked away in the DPO.
When those shares are "unlocked" in February, the price of the stock won't be diluted. These shares already exist and are accounted for. They are simply locked. Also when they are unlocked, the share price won't simply multiply because all shares are now tradeable.
According to Palantir’s after-hours filing with the SEC this afternoon, the company has 1.16 billion Class A shares, 484 million Class B shares and 1 million Class F shares on its cap table outstanding today, or a total of roughly 1.64 billion. Only Class A shares will trade, and Class B and F shares are convertible to Class A shares on a one-to-one basis. On a fully diluted basis, which Palantir says represents 2.2 billion shares total according to its most recent S-1 filing, the company is valued at $16 billion. The difference between those two aggregate numbers comes from outstanding stock performance grants, warrants and other financial instruments.
What WILL affect stock price:
To note, regular employees will barely affect the price of the stock with their miniscule share holdings. Alex Karp, Peter Thiel and a handful of other high ranked executives in PLTR are the ones that will create a tiny but manageable ripple in the stock price.
What COULD affect the stock price a lot:
​
#7 What does PLTR do, tldr.
Imagine Facebook's database of everything about everyone & Youtube's Database of everything & Geolocation data in a database made by the US Army for known terrorist cells.
Palantir allows you to select and match varied data TYPES from several different database, combine it in any way you want and visualize it so that it's human readable by even the dumbest person in the room so that even they can see patterns and come to conclusion on a subject matter.
It's kind of like filling an excel sheet with data and then visualizing it with a bar chart, except the date you filled the sheet with can be anything and not just numbers or dates or countries and you can make various combinations using all the different rows of data to maybe come up with a pattern to something like how to best distribute the Covid vaccines in the counties in a very specific state in the US.
Literally what you see in SciFi movies where people combine random data by smashing keys on a keyboard and somehow find the murderer, the location of a terrorist or the percentage that someone will commit a murder in the future based on a lot of random data about that person or the area, country, family, history... anything.
While this all might sound super cool and amazing, it is. Maybe in 10 years time there will be a few more companies doing this, but for now, it's only Palantir, Circles, Alteryx and a few other private entities that do this type of thing. Many of them work with governments and are hush hush due to the kinds of things they use this type of software for (terrorist cells, warzones, etc) and the public backlash this could cause.
tldr: Glorified data aggregator and visualization platform/software with different access levels for different people.
PLTR is superbly positioned to offer their software to SLOW and Boomer like organizations like Governments.
Governments are stupid and don't have neither the time, nor technical knowledge to develop this software themselves for internal use. This is what PLTR capitalizes on and why Governments use them so much.
Governments could have spent the a fraction of the money they spend on PLTR contracts to make the software themselves but only for their own internal systems and use, but they can't and if they tried, they'd fail because technocracy in governments is not a thing. By the time they'd even complete a project like this, it'd likely be out of spec, unusable and would require further development and money and we know how slow and bad governments are at doing even the basics. Again PLTR wins because of this.
PLTR is likely NOT to be adopted by giants like Google or FB or other modern tech organizations of any size because they are not stupid. They have their own purpose built internal systems that they use to do everything related to data aggregation and visualization because they have the technical knowledge and resources. Buying PLTR for their use is a joke.
PLTR capitalizes on being general a general purpose tool and is set up manually by an engineer over the course of 4-10 days for each customer. The engineer customizes and configures the system for each company's custom use since the software allows you to do so. Regular aggregation and visualization software CAN do the same, but typically lacks data input types and features that PLTR has because PLTR has cultivated a special set of features over many years that were suggested by their existing clientele in battlefields and other places.
​
#8 Other Information
\*Big known PLTR Holders*\**
https://preview.redd.it/a404oalxrob61.png?width=1631&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c2dbcfac5a7ca207127771ec4e3133f8d943359
\*PLTR's Price List (2019)*\**
https://www.esi.mil/Download.aspx?id=7186
​
\*Personal TA and Crayon Mania*\**
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PLTnrjqL4dw-PLTR-Risky-April-100-200-possibility/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PLT5YcdCye0-PLTR-Schizzo-Technical-Analysis/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PLTCkCTvtqM-PLTR-PLTR-train-leaving-the-station-get-ready/
​
\*PLTR stock pumping events*\**
​
\*Similar Companies*\**
​
\*Known Contract Info*\**
​
\*Past and new US KNOWN gov contracts. Source* govtribe.com\\**
https://preview.redd.it/kbim7afrrob61.png?width=1392&format=png&auto=webp&s=9abc99d9995c4972919e275f407e1bba6382dfdd
​
\*Quotes from Won and LOST contracts from Federal Agencies*\**
National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIH) - WON
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) intends to award a contract without providing for full and open competition to Palantir Technologies, Inc., 100 Hamilton Ave., Suite 300, Palo Alto, CA 94301.
Veteran Health Association - WON
The pandemic-related data management and operational decision-support requirements have led the program office to determine that the Palantir data management and analytics platform is the only viable solution that would maintain the current operational capability, without a degradation in VHA COVID-19 decision-support.
AFLCMC Wright Patterson AFB (DOD - USAF - AFMC - AFLCMC) - LOST
Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) held meetings in January/February 2020 timeframe with potential vendors to determine their capabilities and their abilities to meet this mission requirement. They met with Palantir, Recorded Future, Altyrex, In-Q-tel and Semantic AI. From the information they gathered in those meetings it was determined that Semantic AI would be the only company that could fully meet the requirements of this effort without further delaying the project and incurring additional costs
​

​
Now friends, here's my position on PLTR. I'll be holding onto it for the next year. If it's not at least 300% by then, i'm selling it and moving on to the next stock. App i'm using is Revolut.
Also yes, i'm ALL-IN only on Palantir because i know my money will multiply itself in the short term. I'm not holding this till 2025 as others are supposedly doing. I'm selling in 2022 with 300% or more profit. PLTR is severely undervalued, underpriced because it's a DPO. Give it till EOY and we're going to be rich. If it was an IPO it'd be trading at 180+ already imho.
I've spent the last month and a half holding PLTR. I've gone full schizzo mode when it comes to PLTR. I lose sleep daily and i love it. I hadn't slept for 37 hours a few days ago because i spent so much time researching PLTR and scraping the internet for all possible information.
I come from an IT/Development background, so i understand what PLTR does completely.
My PT's for PLTR are:
https://preview.redd.it/4t0k1ujprob61.png?width=407&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b3a16265edafa290432e6b79f9009e3df99f495
submitted by Leenixus to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Post WWE Raw 1/25/2021 Show Discussion Thread

MATCH RESULTS
Winner Match Finish Loser Stipulation
Charlotte DQ when Nia attacks Charlotte Shayna Bazler
Charlotte, Mandy Rose, and Dana Brooke Count-Out Shayna Bazler, Nia Jax, and Lacey Evans
Nia Jax, Shayna Bazler, and Lacey Evans Leg Drop Dana Brooke, Mandy Rose, and Charlotte
Xavier Woods Shining Wizard Slapjack w/ Retribution
Sheamus White Noise John Morrison w/ The Miz
Miz and Morrison Skull Crushing Finale Sheamus
AJ Styles w/ Omos Calf Crusher R-Truth
Riddle Roll-up Shelton Benjamin, MVP, and Cedric Alexander Gauntlet Match
Alexa Bliss No-Contest due to Orton Asuka (c) For the Raw Women's Championship
IMPORTANT NOTES
* POLLS
Rate this week's Raw
Best match on this week's Raw?
SHAMELESS PLUGS
submitted by Darren716 to SquaredCircle [link] [comments]

Trump under criminal investigation in Georgia

Welcome to… a series I don’t have a name for. Tracking Trump? Trump Watch? Do titles really matter?
Housekeeping:

Investigations

Manhattan Supreme Court Judge Arthur Engoron again ruled against the Trump Organization, ordering the company to turn over more documents to New York Attorney General Letitia James. In December, Judge Engoron required the Trump Org to produce records it had tried to argue were shielded by attorney-client privilege. The judge went further this time, ordering that the company’s communications with a law firm also had to be given to AG James.
Some communications that had been marked as privileged, he wrote, were “addressing business tasks and decisions, not exchanges soliciting or rendering legal advice.” He also said that communications related to public relations were not of a legal nature and that privilege was waived in some circumstances where third parties were involved in the discussions.
James’ office is conducting a civil investigation into whether Trump inflated his assets in financial statements to obtain bank loans and understated them elsewhere to reduce his tax bill. While the probe is wide-ranging, the rulings from Engoron focus on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County, New York. Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance is also looking into the property as part of his criminal investigation of the Trump Organization.
Now that he is no longer in office, the IRS is expected to advance its review of a $72.9 million tax refund Trump claimed and received in 2010. The tax agency has not given any indication of how it may rule and it’s possible the public may never learn of the outcome either way. If the IRS determines the refund was not issued appropriately, Trump could be required to pay it back with interest - a more than $100 million debt at a time when his biggest properties are “suffering severe revenue losses”.
  • Note that the commissioner of the IRS is still Charles Rettig, appointed by Trump in 2018. His term is slated to end in November 2022. Rettig has numerous conflicts of interests, including a 50% share of two units in a Trump building that has earned him $100,000-200,000 a year since 2006.
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-MA) told the Washington Post that he will continue to seek Trump’s tax returns. Ultimately, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen can unilaterally surrender Trump’s tax returns to the committee. There is a court case still open on the matter, but the judge is waiting on the Biden administration to take a position before moving forward. In other words, the Biden administration can decide to no longer fight the committee’s request.
  • Trump-appointed judge Trevor McFadden ordered the new administration to give the former president’s attorneys 72 hours’ notice if it decides to give Trump’s tax returns to Neal’s committee. The Treasury and DOJ have until March 3 to submit a status report to the court; lacking a Senate-confirmed Attorney General may lead to another month-long delay in proceedings.
Prosecutors in Fulton County, Georgia, have opened a criminal investigation into Trump’s attempts to overturn the state’s election results. On Wednesday, numerous officials in state government - including Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger - received requests to preserve documents related to “an investigation into attempts to influence” the election.
Of particular note in Ms. Willis’s letter was the wider scope of the investigation. Potential violations of state law include “the solicitation of election fraud, the making of false statements to state and local governmental bodies, conspiracy, racketeering, violation of oath of office and any involvement in violence or threats related to the election’s administration,” the letter states.
While the probe reportedly focuses on Trump’s Jan. 2 call to Raffensperger pressuring him to “find” enough votes to reverse Biden’s win, unnamed officials told the New York Times that Trump’s calls to Governor Brian Kemp, AG Chris Carr, and state election officials, as well.

Money and properties

Before leaving office, former President Trump issued a directive allowing his four adult children and two of their spouses to receive Secret Service protection for six additional months, at no cost. Normally, only the president, wife, and their minor children are entitled to the security. In addition to Trump’s adult children, he ordered Secret Service protection for three former officials: Treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin, chief of staff Mark Meadows, and national security advisor Robert O’Brien.
The perk for the Trump family is expected to cost taxpayers millions of dollars and further stress the elite federal security force, which in the past four years had to staff the largest number ever of full-time security details — up to 42 at one point...
An analysis by watchdog group CREW found that the Trump family took twelve times as many trips with Secret Service protection than the Obamas did: “On average, Obama’s family took 133.3 protected trips per year, while the Trump family has taken an average of 1,625 annually.” Many of the trips taken by Trump’s adult children were to benefit their private business, costing taxpayers tens of millions of dollars in the process.
In February 2017, Eric and Don Jr. flew to Dubai to open a Trump-branded golf club, which cost the Secret Service more than $200,000. The same month, Eric flew to the Dominican Republic to potentially relaunch a failed Trump-branded resort project, which cost $20,000. Eric Trump has visited Uruguay twice for Trump Organization business, costing taxpayers $97,830 in 2017, and $80,786 in 2019. And those are just the receipts we have obtained so far.
After losing the election, Trump managed to shift over $400,000 of donor funds into his private business. The majority - $331,000 - came from his campaign’s joint committee with the RNC. The remainder was donations directly to Trump’s reelection campaign. In total, the joint committee spent $4.3 million with the Trump Organization; his reelection campaign spent $2.8 million.
Two days after the election, on November 5, the joint-fundraising committee paid $11,000 to Trump’s hotel empire. A week later—after the Associated Press, Fox News and other major media outlets had already called the race for Joe Biden—the same committee put another $294,000 into Trump’s hotel business to rent space, order catering and pay for lodging.
Room rates at Trump’s D.C. hotel have more than doubled around March 4 due to a Qanon conspiracy. According to the baseless theory, Trump will be sworn in for a second presidential term on March 4, the day presidents took office prior to 1933. It gets crazier than that, but the main takeaway is that the Trump Organization wants to profit from the Qanon movement by changing the room rates from $476 a night to $1,331 a night on March 3 and 4.
Trump seems likely to reside at his private Mar-a-Lago club despite challenges issued by neighbors after an attorney for Palm Beach sided with the former president. In his 1993 agreement with the town, Trump agreed to change the property from a residence to a private club, barring him from making it a full-time residence. However, Palm Beach attorney John “Skip” Rudolph accepted Trump’s assertion that he’s an employee of Mar-a-Lago who just happens to also live there, which is not prohibited in the town’s zoning laws. Rudolph recommended the town council allow Trump to live at his club; no decision has yet been reached.
Marion, Trump’s attorney, has tried to counter suspicions that Trump is not actually a bona fide employee of the club by telling the council that the former president now walks around the grounds acting as if he’s “the mayor of Mar-a-Lago.” He also showed the council a list of Trump’s jobs at the club, including the sort of greeter job that senior citizens take at big-box stores: “welcomes/thanks those attending” events.
Scotland’s Parliament declined to open an investigation into how Trump obtained his golf courses in the country, saying it was a matter best left to law enforcement. Some Scottish lawmakers have been calling for the government to issue an “unexplained wealth order” to probe whether any financial crimes were committed in the course of purchasing or operating his business. In the 16 years since Trump first incorporated in Scotland, none of his companies have made a profit. In fact, they’ve run up losses of $75 million and owe around $216.5 million to U.S. companies and trusts in Trump’s name.
...[Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick] Harvie said the purchase of Menie and the Turnberry golf resort were part of Mr Trump's "huge cash spending spree in the midst of a global financial crisis".
Mr Harvie said that the House of Representatives had heard testimony which stated: "We saw patterns of buying and selling that we thought were suggestive of money laundering" - with particular concern expressed about Mr Trump's golf courses in Scotland and Ireland.
Illinois Judge Sophia Hall ruled that Trump’s Chicago hotel is liable for violating environmental laws by using Chicago River water without a permit. The state attorneys general office brought the case against Trump’s hotel in 2018, stating the property uses more than 19 million gallons of river water a day to cool its air-conditioning systems. Judge Hall has not yet set a penalty, but the AG is asking for the maximum $50,000 each for two violations, plus an extra $10,000 for every day of the 3 years the violations persisted.
Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump’s final financial disclosure reports reveal that between January 1, 2020, and January 20, 2021, the couple earned between $23 million and $120.6 million in combined outside income. $1.4 million of the total originated from Ivanka’s involvement with Donald Trump’s D.C. hotel. Furthermore, despite agreeing to divest his $25-50 million stake in Cadre, Kushner never followed through.

Miscellaneous

Far-right platform Parler was in negotiations with the Trump Organization to give Trump, then the president, an ownership stake in exchange for his membership. According to Buzzfeed News, former Trump campaign manager brought the idea to Trump last year as a way to counter Twitter and Facebook. Parler reportedly offered the president a 40% stake if Trump began posting exclusively on their app.
Four sources told BuzzFeed News that Parscale and Trump campaign lawyer Alex Cannon met with Parler CEO John Matze and shareholders Dan Bongino and Jeffrey Wernick at Trump’s Florida club Mar-a-Lago in June 2020 to discuss the idea. But the White House counsel’s office soon put a stop to the talks, one person with knowledge of the discussions said, ruling that such a deal while Trump was president would violate ethics rules.
...Discussions were revived in the weeks following the election, according to two people involved, but the deal fell apart after the Capitol invasion. Following that event, Apple and Google removed Parler from their app stores, and Amazon kicked the company off its cloud hosting service, forcing the site offline.
Trump resigned from the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) last week with an irate letter after the group voted to hold a union disciplinary hearing over his role in the insurrection. SAG accused Trump of inciting the attack on the Capitol and “sustaining a reckless campaign of misinformation aimed at discrediting and ultimately threatening the safety of journalists,” ultimately seeking his expulsion from the union.
Trump’s letter (pdf) to SAG President Gabrielle Carteris opens with: “I write to you today regarding the so-called Disciplinary Committee hearing aimed at revoking my union membership. Who cares!” He then says he is “very proud” of his work on movies “such as Home Alone 2, Zoolander and Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps…” After declaring “[y]our organization has done little for its members, and nothing for me,” Trump resigns from the union.
submitted by rusticgorilla to Keep_Track [link] [comments]

$SLV is not going to get squeezed...$SLV is the Trojan Horse for the squeeze THAT'S ALREADY HAPPENING

I have no horse in the GME "fight" right now. I wish you all the best, and it is the biggest trading mistake of my life so far. I was talking about GME with my friends in March 2020, and even did trade some options then for a loss. I must have read DFV at some point, as we were discussing Burry and a "technical short squeeze" happening. But I missed the real boat, so good on DFV and all of the rest of you degenerates.
Instead, I focused my market attention during quarantine on precious metals. My opinion is that in the long term (10+ years) they will provide the only real hedge against inflation in the world as every CB on the planet is exploding the supply of fiat to deal with COVID economic disruption.
In the short term, I believe that the "powers that be" are engineering the largest short squeeze in the history of markets. We do not have the power to effect whether this happens, it is simply an inevitability. HFs, banks, and other large institutions are going to extract an enormous amount of wealth from the world during this squeeze. This money will be taken from the future pocket of every consumer of industrial goods for the next several decades in the form of inflated prices on everything: batteries, electronics, solar panels, EVs...even jewelry and silverware.
We cannot stop them, but I have decided to try to hop on for the ride. The last few months aside, I never saw WSB as a force for societal change, because the people who control the money are always going to win the most in the end. WSB is a place where we can learn the tricks of a market that is structurally rigged against us, and use those tricks to our advantage. To use an analogy that I think we all know: I am not, and will never be, Ender. But I can learn that the Enemy's Gate is Down, and play The Game that way.
The tl;dr is this: the market for silver is the most manipulated physical market in the history of the world. $SLV is the vehicle that is currently being used behind the scenes to vaccum up ownership of every available physical bar of silver in major bullion vaults in the world. When it has completed doing that, the "paper" markets that have held down the price of silver for decades will become disconnected from the physical markets. The energy that has been artificially held back for decades by this paper will explode the price of physical silver, and I have no idea how high it will go. $SLV will stand (mostly) alone as the world's exchange traded product for electronic trading of physical silver.

LET'S START AT THE BEGINNING: WHY IS SILVER IMPORTANT?

Silver has been used as real currency for thousands of years, and there is an argument to be made for returning to "sound" money through the use of silver and gold. However, that is not the argument that I am making.
Silver is a highly industrial metal, and it's usage for industry will only continue to expand as we electrify the future. Silver is important for electrical applications b/c it is the most-conductive / least-resistive metal in the universe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_resistivity_and_conductivity#Resistivity_and_conductivity_of_various_materials). It is used heavily in all electronic applications (even more since RoHS has pushed us away from Tin/Lead and towards Tin/Silver solder blends, with silver being added to mitigate the longevity problems of 100% Tin solder growing Tin whiskers and shorting out components). But the largest new demands on silver are going to come from solar panels and EVs. Utility-scale solar is now virtually tied with wind as the cheapest new sources of energy in the world and is only getting cheaper every year. As fossil fuel plants continue to reach the end of their service life, they are going to be replaced with solar and wind technologies. As EVs become more prevalent, their components (ESPECIALLY their batteries) will produce additional demand for Silver.
As smart investors are wont to do, this coming demand for industrial silver has been front-run and large quantites of silver have been sucked into investment products so that they can produce financial returns when demand begins to increase. 2020 showed remarkable investor interest in silver, to the tune of an estimated 350Mtoz moving into exchange traded products like $SLV. $SLV alone added ~200Mtoz of silver to it's holdings in 2020.
Unfortunately for the market, supply cannot meet demand: Of the 930.9Mtoz estimated for 2020 demand, only 236Mtoz was available for physical investment, because the rest was consumed by industrial uses. This means that $SLV alone absorbed almost the entire world's capacity for silver investment in 2020, and as you'll see soon, this is only accelerating in 2021.
Source for demand/supply/investment numbers: https://www.silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/SilverInstitute2020InterimPR.pdf

LETS GET PHYSICAL, PHYSICAL

Now it's important to understand that huge amounts of "silver" is traded on "paper" markets, and these markets have historically decided the approximate cost of physical silver in the world, in the form of the "spot price". I'm not going to give anyone a primer on how this works, go read about the London Fix and COMEX paper on your own time. But the important thing to know is that there are a bunch of silver bars in vaults in London and in the U.S., and electronic claims on them are traded on the LBMA and COMEX continuously, without the silver ever leaving the vaults.
However, these vaults have concrete numbers of physical bars in them, and trading contracts against them technically means that you can show up at a window somewhere and demand your 5x 1000oz bars that a COMEX warrant entitle you to. This redemption happens all the time, and it can be used to extract physical silver from the unallocated storage at bullion vaults and release it to industrial or consumer bullion uses. However, these bars can also be moved into "registered" or "allocated" accounts without them leaving the overall vault storage. This means that a quantity of individual silver bars that an owner holds title to can be physically moved inside the vault onto a different rack, and the owner has individual serial numbers of bars that they own. These bars can be withdrawn on demand only by their owner and are not available for general redemption of a COMEX warrant.
So how many bars are there? Well between LBMA and COMEX, there are 1480.3Mtoz sitting in vaults (sources below when I start doing math). This includes all allocated AND unallocated bars. Now, obviously London and NY are separated by an ocean, but people always like to bring up that bars could be moved b/w London <-> American COMEX vaults. This is an enormous undertaking, but let's make a "spherical chicken in a vaccuum" level assumption and say that LBMA + COMEX vaults are a singular source of inventory for both $SLV and other market participants.
If you read the $SLV S-1 (which I did: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1330568/000119312505127244/ds1.htm) you would learn that the custodian of the $SLV trust is required to hold all silver weight (with an exception for 1100toz of unallocated, lol) that is owned by the trust in allocated accounts, where the individual bars are physically segregated inside the vaults, and the serial numbers of the owned bars are explicitly recorded. The idea that there is "no physical silver" backing the SLV trust and "you could get settled with cash" is ridiculous. iShares publishes a report listing every serial number of every bar that is owned by the trust, along with the total weight contained in the bars. It is 10847 pages long (you can read it here if you have trouble sleeping at night: https://emea-markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf) and is updated frequently.
The underlying silver is owned by the trust. It cannot be removed from the trust unless "baskets" of 50000 shares are redeemed by an "Authorized Participant" which is only a few large brokers. It cannot be removed by the bullion vaults and given to other customers because it is physically segregated inside the vaults.
People who have recently beaten down the idea of a silver squeeze love to talk about how JP Morgan is the custodian for the SLV trust. And because JPM just paid a $1B fine for historical manipulation of the paper silver market, they aren't going to be honest about this. This is crazy talk.
When it comes to the dishonesty of a big bank, there is "fraud" and there is FRAUD. "Fraud" would be them saying "Oh sorry, we didn't realize that a laundromat bringing in $300k/week of dirty dollar bills was out of the ordinary". "Fraud" happens all the time, and the banks get away with it regularly. FRAUD would be them saying "Oh yes, 3rd party customer (iShares) who services dozens of other large banking institutions in the world, here is objective evidence, with serial numbers, that we have these silver bars in the vault" and then just making up the data. It is QANON-level crazy, IMHO, to think that JPM is going to commit FRAUD by publishing a list of serial numbers that is completely fake.
I believe the exact opposite: since they have just gotten caught, they are playing it straight this time and have just switched sides in order to go long. On the COMEX alone, JP Morgan Chase is long 193.9Mtoz, or just north of $5B.
(COMEX depository data by weight: https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls)
The problem for the futures and options markets is that their continual trading of paper contracts is chasing a smaller and smaller amount of physical silver that is not owned by $SLV. And the market participants (minus, now, JPM) who have gotten away with naked selling of paper contracts and mostly settling them for cash are going to soon find the underlying vaults empty and no metal to give to warrant holders who come looking for it.

HOW BIG OF A PROBLEM IS $SLV FOR THE NAKED SHORTS IN THE PAPER MARKET? LET'S DO SOME MATH.

$SLV inventory math:
$SLV is holding 669,357,789.40 troy ounces in trust, and has 720,500,000 shares outstanding.
(If you are curious why $SLV/share trades below the spot price, it's because: 669.4Mtoz / 720.5M shares = .929 toz / share)
($SLV data from here: https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund?qt=SLV#/ )
(screenshot from tonight for posterity: https://imgur.com/a/0sqcMFr)
Bullion vault inventory math:
London (LBMA) silver stocks are 1080.5Mtoz (http://www.lbma.org.uk/london-precious-metals-physical-holdings-statistics)
US COMEX silver stocks are 399.8Mtoz (https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls)
669.4/(1080.5 + 399.8) = 45.2% of the vaulted silver in the world is already owned by SLV
Subtracting what SLV already owns, leaves us with: (1080.5 + 399.8) - 669.4 = 810.9Mtoz
(This is completely ignoring the fact that a lot of that remaining silver is owned in registered or allocated accounts by individual owners. E.g. there is 150.2Mtoz in "registered" on the COMEX which means those bars are already specifically deeded to an individual owner. But they could theoretically sell it to SLV so I included it as available.)
810.9Mtoz is the ABSOLUTE THEORETICAL MAXIMUM available in LBMA + COMEX silver that is not already owned by SLV.
Now how short are the shorts? Some more math:
OI on COMEX futures: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver-futures-and-options.html
+ 179786*5000toz + 130402*5000toz + 8245*1000toz + 1903*2500toz ---------------- 1,563,942,500 = 1563.9Mtoz
in currently open interest that could be demanded for delivery. Just on the COMEX, there could be demand for twice as much silver as there is in the combined LBMA + COMEX vaults that is not explicitly owned by $SLV right now.
Caveats:
Using the same basic methodology–total shorts divided by shares [toz in this case] outstanding–as is used on a stock to calculate short interest (and gave us the infamous 140% short interest on GME) we get......drumroll please:
1563.9 short / 810.9 physical = 192.9% short interest.
OPEN INTEREST ON COMEX SILVER FUTURES AND OPTIONS IS EQUIVALENT TO A 192.9% SHORT INTEREST AGAINST ALL LONDON AND U.S. AVAILABLE INVENTORY.
But it gets even worse.

WANNA ADD A GAMMA SQUEEZE??

I pulled the data for all current OI in SLV options. There is a large number (5.7 million) of call contracts open (here are the totals: https://imgur.com/tiqPA34)
Using the .929toz/share number, we can calculate that there are up to 527.2Mtoz that would have to be bought during an absolute runaway Gamma Squeeze. Call options on $SLV max out right now at $55, so the spot price would only have to increase by around 122% to reach the point that all of that weight would need to have been purchased. But at some point, it could become self-reinforcing, and the gamma squeeze continues to cause more gamma squeezing.
I believe that this almost happened Sunday evening (2021-01-31) as evidenced by the huge premium that $SLV was trading to the futures price for a few minutes when trading opened. (My comparison chart: https://i.imgur.com/UPjL3zm.png)
The Silver ETF that trades on Sunday in Tel Aviv (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TCHF82:IT) closed up >6% (and was consistenly rising for the entire session) before any american spot markets opened. I believe that hedging algorithms at MM firms that write options saw this spike as a need to buy shares in $SLV to cover their deltas, and so they bought the opening of $SLV like crazy. $SLV opened up 17.6%, while paper only opened up about 6%. Paper market players had to sell 23.8Mtoz of paper in the first minute of trading to keep the price under control. I have never seen an imbalance like this before, and it was covered up quickly (within 2 hours of trading). But to me, it sounds like Vincent's heartbeat monitor in GATTACA when he runs out of fake signal: there was a cover up required to hide this explosion.
When the day comes that this cover up is not executed properly, stuff is going to get ugly, b/c $SLV won't just gamma squeeze like a normal stock...

BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE! A TRADITIONAL GAMMA/SHORT SQUEEZE WILL SEEM LIKE NOTHING IN SILVER

The squeeze in silver will be FAR WORSE than the combination of a gamma and short squeeze in a stock, because shares of stock cannot be removed from the market. Eventually somebody holding $VW or $GME is going to say "sure, I'll sell at $42,000.69 per share" and that share can go back to cover a short. But if instead of doing that, the holder of that share withdrew it from the market by converting it to a physical token b/c they thought that the physical token would be more valuable than the share (the retail premium on physical silver vs. paper silver), the short interest would INCREASE as shares were converted into tokens. And since there are currently more "shares" of silver than there are bars of silver in the vault, the shorts can be caught with a literally illiquid market that has nothing to buy.
Zero. Zilch. No silver available.
The doomsday scenario (for paper silver holders and writers) is the following combination:
COMEX warrant holders who try to demand metal that doesn't exist will literally break the market.
The CBOE will probably step in and decide to force settle the contracts for cash at the last known good price, and COMEX paper warrants will cease trading forever.
The physical market price will then be disconnected from the paper market, and $SLV as an exchange traded product will stand (mostly) alone as the new "paper" market for silver.

SO WTF DO I DO? [NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE]

Well I could always buy physical silver, if I can stomach the premium and wait 8 weeks for it to show up. Or, I could just get long on $SLV. Since I believe that $SLV will stand alone after the dust settles as the one true claim on bars in the vaults, I could be long the actual $SLV ticker in several ways:
If I wanted to maximize my contribution to the Gamma Squeeze, I'd probably buy as much Delta/$ as I could get using weeklies, which would be 2/5 $26.5C or 2/12 $28C
(Max delta/$ calculations: https://i.imgur.com/Az3o85v.png and https://i.imgur.com/eRPQo6k.png)
Current open positions for me are: (https://imgur.com/vWZrziG)
Footnote, all the pictures I think I used, in case i missed something: https://imgur.com/a/0sqcMFr
submitted by jobead to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

[Steam Lunar Sale] is on till 15 February, most JRPGs are on sale to even over -80%. Here is the link and a list of recommendations.

The Steam Lunar Sale has started and a good number of JRPGs are sale now:

~ Link to the JRPG Page of the Sale ~

~ Link to the full JRPG list on Sale ~

Here is a list of recommendations if you can't decide which ones to get:

~ Classic Turn-Based ~

  • Persona 4 Golden: A great game with a lovable cast, and fantastic music. A school life simulator and dungeon crawler mixed in with a fantastic mystery plot. I would say more but I am holding back as to not spoil anything, because this is one of those games that lives and dies on the twists and turns of the story and the choices you make during the story.
  • Battle Chasers: Nightwar: An actual kickstarter JRPG that more than delivered what it set it out for and more. It went under the radar since release, but it's a great turn-based JRPG with great characters and challenging combat and a satisfying crafting system, arena fights, fishing, skill trees, and a fantastic in-game encyclopedia with an actual incentive to complete. With a great tiered loot system, dungeons with random events and side-quests every time you enter. And really great monsters to hunt. It's more than worth full price, but right now it's dirt cheap.
  • Bug Fables: The Everlasting Sapling: 2nd rank on the best Indie JRPG of 2020 and only because CrossCode took number 1, this Paper Mario style JRPG saw that Nintendo isn't making what JRPG fans are waiting for, so they scrapped themselves in to patch in that gap in JRPG history. With praise from every where and Overwhelmingly Positive score on steam. why not give it a try ?
  • GRANDIA HD Remaster and GRANDIA 2 HD Remaster : If you are in the mood for one of those old turn-based epic fantasy adventures, then look no more. The first Grandia in particular is one of the classics great fantasy adventure games. Grandia 2 is more "Edgy", but still has the great gameplay that Grandia 1 had.
  • Yakuza: Like a Dragon: Another game that is always in the top 3 in multiple categories, with it's Main Character (Ichiban Kasuga) winning the number 1 spot for the best character for 2020. The Yakuza series was already crazy fun, and now it's Turn-based ? enough said.
  • Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition: 2 full games in 1 package. If you're a fan of the series then this is a must play, it dives into the lore more than a lot of the previous games, and also has one of the biggest Digimon rosters till to day. Even if you're not into the series but you're looking for a classic turn-based game to just grind and chill out in, then this is a good choice.

~ Tactical Turn-Based ~

  • Disgaea 5: To be honest any game in this series or even it's spin-offs, like Phantom Brave, is worth getting. Great voice acting, always funny characters and funnier events, and you'll always get more than you're money's worth of content and gameplay time even if you are paying full price for it. But if you don't have the time to go through the series one by one, then going for this one is more than worth it. You'll miss out on a lot of inside jokes and great cameos if you start with this one, but story wise you don't have to worry about anything since they aren't really connected. They happen in the same world, but even if you don't know the story of other games it still won't hinder your enjoyment of the story here.
  • Disgaea 1.
  • Disgaea 2.
  • Disgaea 4 Complete+.
  • TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children: What if you want something serious ? then this is your go to game. I always liked X-com but I couldn't get into the RNG gameplay and losing characters forever because of one mistake. So here is TroubleShooter, an X-com JRPG, with an actual full story told through multiple chapters. A really fun world to get into, with great characters and fantastic music. The detective Noir atmosphere combined with really deep and complex customization system just provides endless content to go through. They also just recently released a whole DLC for free that expands the story and adds more content...yes for FREE!
  • SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS: You want a Tactical Mecha game focused on the Gundam universe with great graphics and crazy amount of customization and days worth of play time ? that's a weird request but I got you, here you go fam, Cross Rays brings you amazing Metal on Metal clash! with a huge (and I mean huge) list of Mechs to develop, evolve, capture, exchange, and unlock throughout a long and satisfying story campaign, and a customization system deep and varied enough to lose days of your life on.
  • Utawarerumono: Prelude to the Fallen: The Entire Series is on Steam now. This fantastic Visual Novel Style game is one hell of a ride from start to end. If you're looking for a lore and story rich fantasy game then there is no reason to not get this whole series. Drama, Comedy, Mystery, Action, Horror, Fan-service, and more, this game has it all.
Prelude to the Fallen is the first game story-wise, and while the story is fantastic, I won't lie to you that they didn't really update the gameplay to the standards of the other two games in the series. Still the gameplay isn't really where the game shines anyway, and once you get into the other 2 games after this one, the gameplay gets much better.
After Prelude to the Fallen is:
Utawarerumono: Mask of Deception.
And then after that comes:
Utawarerumono: Mask of Truth.
  • Lost Dimension: This one probably went under the radar when it was ported to PC. But it's a solid Tactical JRPG, with a really fun setting. To save you the time on the story, Imagine Danganronpa as a tactical JRPG and there you go. A really dark Mystery story, filled with plot twists, and some really great customization done in a way that makes sure no 2 playthroughs are the same.
  • Tale of Wuxia: Are you into great world building ? choices that matter ? open-world gameplay and life-sims ? Tactical turn-based combat Chinese Martial Arts novels/comics ? well here is one of the best games you can find. A remake of an older game, they did a fantastic job with it. There are issue with the translation, but for something so unique and one of a kind you'd have to work through minor issues. The game is about building your own Martial Art master, by managing their daily life-style, chores, adventures, jobs, training, and even social relations. With multiple endings, and so many different routes and events, you can easily gets sucked into it's world. If you like it then you can also check Tale of Wuxia:The Pre-Sequel, that does away with the life-sim, and focuses completely on the open-world adventure and tactical gameplay aspect.

~ Action combat ~

  • .hack//G.U. Last Recode: You're itching for the next great action JRPGs that plays like the Tales series, but with an even more edgy and revenge hungry main character than Velvet from Berseria ? Then look no more. With 3 games in 1 and with an extra new episode to wrap the story up, then you'll be getting more than you money's worth for sure. With an MMO setting and a fresh approach to side-quests and world exploration, it's a classic that is more than worth giving a try.
  • Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA: Again this is a case of a whole series is filled with great games, but if you're going to choose one, then this one is an easy pick. Fantastic soundtrack ? check! Great Smooth Action gameplay ? check! Dogi the wall breaker ? check! Base building and crafting ? check! and check!
  • Tales of Symphonia: To be fair, any of the Tales games on Steam right now are good to get since they are all dirt cheap in this sale and they are great games. But if you had to choose only one, then this is the classic Tales game experience, and it might as well be free at the price they are selling it now at. Whatever Tales game you get, make sure to check out the mods on steam, there are some really good ones to make sure you get the best experience possible, graphics and FPS wise.
  • Tales of Berseria
  • Tales of Vesperia
  • Tales of Zesteria
  • CrossCode: Look.....I have yet to play this myself (don't shoot!), but I got so many people telling and shouting at me to play it, and friends begging me to, that it has to be good. But just to be on the safe side, you can check the free demo before you take the jump. And am sure someone in the comments can vouch for the game. Oh and it's Number 1 in the rankings of this year's Indie JRPGs.
The games aren't connected story-wise, so you can start with any of them:
Wrath of the White Witch: For a the best fantasy adventure feel, while the combat is a hit or miss depending on your taste, don't let that stop you from actually diving something that is really whimsical, this is the one with the better story in my opinion, so if you want more story than game, this is for you.
Ni no Kuni™ II: Revenant Kingdom: This one focuses more on gameplay, with a Kingdom builder, Army battles, Heavy loot focus, and even character collector, this is the one to go with if you want more game than story.

Here is the "Bonus Round" version:

  • AKIBA'S TRIP: Undead ＆ Undressed: A Beat'em up JRPG, where you kill Vampires in modern Japan, by using a combination of elaborate wrestling moves and every weapon you can get your hands on, and finally finishing them by stripping them till they disintegrate. A funny and silly game that has a weird amount of detail.
  • One Piece Pirate Warriors 3 (Wait on buying it, there seem to be a crashing problem at the moment): Yes I am aware that Pirate Warriors 4 is out and on sale, but I like this one more, and it's cheap as hell. If you're looking for something mindless but very satisfying to waste hours on, then this is really good. Even as someone who isn't a fan of the Warriors series, I really couldn't stop playing this one when I first got it, and if you're a fan of the show then this is a must.
  • Okami HD: I mean, what is there to say ? a true PS2 classic...on the PC, in HD, for dirt cheap. It's Okami people come on.

Please go ahead and post any great deals that I missed, or ask about any you are unsure of.

submitted by VashxShanks to JRPG [link] [comments]

GME MOASS (Potential) Price Target. Shorts, you have been warned.

GME MOASS (Potential) Price Target. Shorts, you have been warned.
GME, where shorts are about to get gang-banged to bankruptcy ad infinitum ∞
Shorts, after many failed attempts, we are warning you now, again, more than ever. (Do you guys just hate making money or what?) WSB, in all its retarded wisdom, will not stop to see this thesis play through to its completion. Now, the whole world is watching this Infinity War play through, and you're at the wrong end of the $ROPE. You guys keep on gluing yourselves into a corner, and the bulls are about to go Muhammad Ali on your ass. Even Jim fucking Cramer said it.
\"[that is just] game over for the shorts ... when you have people shooting at it like this...\" -Jim Cramer*
Likewise, to my fellow GameStop/GME GANG BULLS: The longer we wait, the bigger our reward. Let me explain.
Let's assume shorts haven't even covered yet (and many analysts say they haven't), then the bigger our initial investment capital to be multiplied to theoretical infinity, and that's not even counting our call options (juicy gamma squeeze, anyone?). Now, let's do some math.
Assumptions:
• Assume C(n) is 'zero point', prior to squeeze; where 'C' is initial capital, and 'n' is all the compounded multiplier prior to the deadly short squeeze. Basically, it's just your total capital multiplied by organic % growth. It's some king shit. Let's say that C(e) is ending capital. Remember the 'compound interest is king' worship on subs like investing? Well, my fellow retards, this is compound interest on fucking steroids so scientifically advanced it hasn't even been birthed yet.
• Assume days-to-cover is about 6 as per avg. daily volume and number of shares shorted needing to be unwound, under a 100% of float shorted scenario (which, in our case, is actually 250%-300%+. Who knows how that shit plays out. (I like to play conservative: positive surprise is better than negative.)) (edit: some folks say that the average volume in the past few days has risen by 'x' amount. Might be true, but it could also die down to an averaged baseline since the volume spike was more organic buying imo. Also, consider that the current short % of float is 260.91%***\* as of writing (Yahoo! Finance, Dec. 20, 2020 data). That's good for Longs, absolutely fucking terrifying for shorts given current circumstances. Take from that as you will.)
•Assume 50% increase in share price (SP) per day during short squeeze panic. (Even that's probably conservative, but, who knows. I'm not a fortune teller.)
Then;
MOASS (conservative) Price Target (PT) = (SP)(1.5)^6
and C(e) = C(n) x ((SP)(1.5)^6)/SP)
Think about that for a sec.
Now, let's assume shorts will start to cover for their goddamn souls by SP=$50. Then;
Price Target (PT) = ($50)(1.5)^6
Price Target (PT) = $569.53.*\*
Let's stagger this down to steps by change-per-day so it's easier to visualize, following above assumptions:
Day 0 (D0): $50 (+0%, zero point)
Day 1 (D1): $75 (+50% from D0) = 1.5-bagger
Day 2: $112.50 (+50% from D1) = 2-bagger
Day 3: $168.50 (+50% from D2) = 3-bagger
Day 4: $253.125 (+50% from D3) = 5-bagger
Day 5: $379.6875 (+50% from D4) = 7-bagger
Day 6: $569.53125 (+50% from D5) = 11-bagger
Literally an 11-bagger in a matter of 6 days by conservative day-over-day 'squeeze' growth estimates. (edit: I'm adding a variation factor, or randomness factor as I want to call it, of +-$200 on the 11-bagger mark, just to cover our bases. I've read more on other people's MOASS PTs, and the 11-bagger seems to be on the upper end (I will not retract the PT though, and I am confident in the mathematical power of exponential compounding, esp. in this historical short squeeze data on GME). I enjoy the fact, however, that by consensus, we all agree on the whopping potential multiples this short squeeze can generate.*****\*) (edit: There's been comments about the massive sell-walls at $420.69, hence, it could curtail any share price growth beyond that point. If it even reaches that point, that would be fucking hilarious. Even funnier at $694.20.)
$TSLA performance 1-yr to date is an 8-bagger. (Shoutout to our TSLA brothers, we love you and shit. GME gang will join you in tendie-land soon.)
The legendary VW Short Squeeze was a little under 5-bagger over the course of several days, and even then,
I will quote DOMO Capital*** on a recent example:
it took $APRN 3-4 days to squeeze.
Day 1: Up as high a 86%, closed up 68%
Day 2: Up as high as 96% closed up 71%
Day 3: Up as high as 198% closed up 148%
Day 4: Up as high as 77% closed down 12%
$2.25 to $28.84 at peak
That was without >100% SI
You read that right. That was without >100% SI. And in this example, $APRN was a 13-bagger (+1281.77%) over the course of 3-4 days. Meanwhile, our hypothetical GME scenario above yielded an 11-bagger (+1100%) after 6 days, on (imo) conservative day-over-day short squeeze spikes of 50%. I know that +1000%+ looks almost impossible on paper. Sure, maybe as an isolated, singular event. But stretch that over to multiple days with compounding interest overwhelmingly in your favor, and you can get there in no time (if you're still confused about that, re-read the visualized step-by-step change-per-day above). That's why you can have small initial capital amounts grow into millions of dollars after many years of passive investing, but, that's for investing to talk about.
+7% YoY index investing growth until age 65? We don't do that here. 1000%+ or bust bitch
GME right now is like a lottery ticket, where the statistical impossibility of winning it big has been replaced by the function probability of time, where time decay is in your favor; inversely proportional to shorts. They have to cover eventually, and the water boils hot by the second.
What catalysts can be 'surpriseful' enough to lead shorts to cover to their deaths, you might ask? Who knows. What I do know, however, and something which has NOW BEEN PROVEN to be validated by (at the very least) recent price action alone, is that sweet sugar daddy Ryan Cohen and our CHWY daddies Alan Attal and Jim Grube know what they're doing. Who knows what kind of walls they'll be breaking in these coming days, weeks, or months. And each and any of them can become the flashy red nuclear button to send this bitch running. (edit: Jim Cramer had a segment on Mad Money today about the ripe-ness of GME to fucking SQUEEZE INTO MOASS.***** You read that right: GME + MOASS potential + CRAMER. He also seems to love WSB, and probably jacks off to our gains. Hi Cramer! See link below: thanks to u/CPTHubbard for sharing the link.)
Then again, I might be retarded as fuck, take these assumptions with a grain of salt. Long live WSB, and long live GME gang.
Bonus: "but u/fieryskyes, how do I know when the tip has topped?"
My answer: Who knows. Feel free to set yourself a limit sell, or not. Just remember that MM's and many other advanced traders can see your limit sells (e.g. $420.69) via Level II data. If (and that's an if) and when the MOASS starts to happen, you will know. WSB will be going apeshit about it. With regards to my own personal strategy, I'll be watching the price spike actively over the span of the days it squeezes. No limit sell, no stop loss.. I'd rather see the price peak to the highest peak, knowing it has maxed out, and then catch it as it freefalls, than SELLING too early without having even seen the peak yet. Seeing the glorious green dildo peak is ejaculatory enough for me, and I'll be ready to unwind shortly [pun intended] as it falls. But then again, that's just my personal preference on the play. There could be better plays, in which I'd be open to exploring.
TL;DR: Under the assumptions written above, GME MOASS Price Target is potentially an 11-bagger on conservative estimates over a 6-day period, and the short squeeze (reportedly) hasn't even begun yet. GME right now is like a lottery ticket, where the statistical impossibility of winning it big has been replaced by the function probability of time, where time decay is in your favor; inversely proportional to shorts. Join now, or die in FOMO forever.
GME = WHALE-MAKER 🐳 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
---
*-Link to Cramer tweet: Katherine Ross on Twitter: ""You see something like [Gamestop $GME] and that is just...game over for the shorts, theoretically, when you have people shooting at it like this..." @jimcramer said. https://t.co/X1s4AET1BO" / Twitter
**- for our fundamentalists, $BBY (Best Buy) as of writing is currently at $114.84 with $29.72B Market Cap. $GME (GameStop) at $39.46 is at $2.752B market cap. BBY is just about 11x of GME. At 11x Mkt Cap, GME would be priced at roughly ~$430. A lot of assumptions here, sure, but I'm putting this here just to put share and market cap sizing into context.
***- Link to DOMO Capital tweet: https://twitter.com/DOMOCAPITAL/status/1349435914632749058?s=20
****-GME Yahoo Finance stats. See "short % of float". Link: GME 39.91 8.51 27.10% : GameStop Corporation - Yahoo Finance
*****- Cramer's GME Short Squeeze segment: Full 5 min clip on Short Squeeze - WSB @ 4 min : wallstreetbets (reddit.com) / Jim Cramer breaks down the short busting in GameStop, Bed Bath & Beyond - YouTube
******: possibly final edit: I've been browsing through other MOASS Price targets, and seems like my range is up the upper end so far. For that reason, I'm including a variation range of +-$200 on the 11-bagger mark, to account for randomness, and just to cover our bases. The key thing to note is that MOASS price targets are in whopping multiples of current SP. I will not retract the 11-bagger PT, as it just shows the power of exponential compounding interest in a once-in-a-lifetime MOASS scenario, given our current data on GME and its boiling rocket fuel.
edit: formatting adjustments. also, how tf do you remove the stupid blue apron picture on this post lol. shit's pretty retarded looking on mobile. oh well
edit 2: added an Infinity War picture for our retarded brothers who can't read
edit 3: please note, this post is for entertainment purposes only, and not investment advice. only go full retard by your own personal discretion
submitted by fieryskyes to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Inside the mind of a hedge fund executive...

Imagine you’re a hedge fund CEO or senior executive.
You’ve always had an inflated ego, and going to Wharton for an MBA definitely didn’t help in that regard. You interned at GS for the summer of 2003 and told all your friends about it, probably even brought it up oh so casually on dates. When you were hired as a trader by a moderately good to great fund, you probably lost a good deal of friends from your previous life, because they “just don’t get you now.” You’re in a different league than them, even your classmates that now work at lesser funds. You act friendly, liking Facebook posts, returning their calls, but there’s a nagging feeling that they’re holding you back. That you’ve made it, and you don’t need some loser that doesn’t even work on the East Coast.
Jump ahead a few years
It’s September 20th, 2008. Bear Stearns closed months earlier, Lehman went bankrupt a few days ago. "Buddies" of yours from both funds have been texting you, some you know from college. Maybe you’ll take pity on them and put in a good word, maybe you’ll tell them nothing’s available right now and that you’re sorry. You don’t tell them you were part of your fund's effort to short sell theirs into oblivion. Maybe you really are sorry though. What you’re more sorry about, however, is that your bonuses are probably going to be shit for a few years. They could even dip into five figures, god forbid. Your thoughts are of course directed to the millions of people losing their jobs across the country by the news, but inevitably your bonus reduction resurfaces as your biggest concern. “It’s not like I can do anything,” you say, after downing some wine. You go to sleep fairly easily, while across the country, innumerable people are forced to contemplate moving.
Let’s jump ahead a few more years
It’s mid-March, 2020. At this point, its become evident that COVID-19 is going to ravage the world, in some capacity (not gonna put politics into this because that’s not the point). As either a CEO or senior executive at a mid-range hedge fund, your thoughts gravitate towards your craft. It’s clear the market is going to tank, so you do what you do best. You short the shit out of several clearly sinking industries (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/investing/short-sellers-market-coronavirus/index.html). But you don't stop there. You go on CNBC, Fox Business, maybe even the BBC, and announce doom and gloom. Doing this will get people to dump their stocks, meaning your shorts print even more money. Oh well, if there’s a positive to be gained from this whole thing it’s your fund making good money, right? By late March or early April, your wife convinces you that going with the kids to the Hampton’s would be the best choice, since the upper east side is getting a little claustrophobic. You’ll need to cancel your two week St. Barts vacation, what a bummer. You rent out a nice beach house in Sag Harbor for 125k a month, managing to beat out the other bidder by upping them by 10k. Once again, millions of people are losing their jobs, and you’re shorting the companies they work for. What else should you do?
Only a few months forward this time
It’s October. Weeks turned into months, and while you’ve started getting back to the city more and more, you’re still staying in Sag. Sometimes you have family friends over for an ostensibly socially distanced wine + cigar. You don’t think much of the events of the summer, aside from that one tweet you had PR send out in July. Your kids might have thoughts, you haven’t asked.
Just a few more months, I promise
It’s January. For really no other reason than the prospect of making more money, you along with a few other funds have decided to open naked shorts on GameStop. While technically not allowed, there are loopholes. Why would the loopholes be there, if not to be exploited, right? Not like you don’t do the same thing with your taxes.
Then, the unthinkable happens
A bunch of retail investors, led by a specific part of Reddit, decide to fuck your position by dramatically raising the share price. Since you firmly believe these people incapable of sticking to such an audacious play, you do nothing. Before long though, you start to become slightly unnerved by how steady the growth of the stock is. It's approaching $100, and you're losing hundreds of thousands to millions every day on short interest. So, you decide to take action. You get on CNBC, and cry about fundamentals. About volatility crushing these people. They don't listen, and keep buying. A week passes with you and your rich friends trying various strategies, none of it working. You're aware of another fund leaning on a popular trading app to force them into not accepting buy orders for GME, amongst others. You're not above sacrificing pride for money, so you announce your fund has closed its shorts. You're lying, of course. What kind of looks what you get at future parties if you cowed to these people? No, fuck that. You've read all the right books, been to the right schools, made the right friends, networked at the right parties and functions. You will not close, everything in your life has conditioned you not to. In fact, you'll double down. You go on CNBC some more. Artificially lower the stock price by trading between a few other funds. None of it's working, and you're intensely aware of another potential gamma squeeze on Friday. Restrictions on buying help during the day, but after hours, the stock jumps. That momentum carries it into a solid Friday. You won't budge, but at this point you're losing millions of dollars a day.
So, here we are
These people do not care about you. You're the least of their concerns, actually. They care about money and fund image, in that order. We have a real chance to make guys exactly like this hurt where it counts (for them), and I want people to understand that. I'm not saying throw your rent into GME. I'm saying you have the chance to really be a part of something, to screw the people that have been doing the screwing for your whole life. The house has been running a fixed casino, and you have the chance to hit back.
Do not close. We have them, and they know it. We're winning, and if we keep winning they will give in.
submitted by IASIPFL to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

"I think I've lived long enough to see competitive Counter-Strike as we know it, kill itself." Summary of Richard Lewis' stream (Long)

I want to preface that the contents of this post is for informational purposes. I do not condone or approve of any harassments or witch-hunting or the attacking of anybody.
 
Richard Lewis recently did a stream talking about the terrible state of CS esports and I thought it was an important stream anyone who cares about the CS community should listen to.
Vod Link here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/830415547
I realize it is 3 hours long so I took it upon myself to create a list of interesting points from the stream so you don't have to listen to the whole thing, although I still encourage you to do so if you can.
I know this post is still long but probably easier to digest, especially in parts.
Here is a link to my raw notes if you for some reason want to read through this which includes some omitted stuff. It's in chronological order of things said in the stream and has some time stamps. https://pastebin.com/6QWTLr8T

Intro

CSPPA - Counter-Strike Professional Players' Association

"Who does this union really fucking serve?"

ESIC - Esports Integrity Commission

"They have been put in an impossible position."

Stream Sniping

"They're all at it in the online era, they're all at it, they're all cheating, they're all using exploits, probably that see through smoke bug got used a bunch of times"

Match Fixing

"How many years have we let our scene be fucking pillaged by these greedy cunts?" "We just let it happen."

North America

"Everyone in NA has left we've lost a continents worth of support during this pandemic and Valve haven't said a fucking word."

Talent

"TO's have treated CS talent like absolute human garbage for years now."

Valve

"Anything that Riot does, is better than Valve's inaction"

Closing Statements

"We've peaked. If we want to sustain and exist, now is the time to figure it out. No esports lasts as long as this, we've already done 8 years. We've already broke the records. We have got to figure out a way to coexist and drive the negative forces out and we need to do it as a collective and we're not doing that."

submitted by Tharnite to GlobalOffensive [link] [comments]

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