Hazard und Hazard-Ratio - Deutsches Ärzteblatt

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I've Found 929 Discs Over 4 Years - Here's Some Data!

Over the last 4 years I’ve collected data on the discs I’ve found, broken it down into chunks and trends I thought were interesting, and shared it with the community. Previous year’s posts can be found 2019 Post and 2020 Post.
This post deals with averages for the entire data set collected over the years. There are some comparisons from the previous years’ averages just for giggles here and there but if you’re looking for trends by comparing old posts you’ll need to remember that all of the data keeps getting rolled over into a larger and larger aggregate. I do plan on breaking finds down by year as well as location in future posts. Lots of neat data so may as well play with it, right?
I’ve explained my data collection a bit more near the end of this post. If you notice some math and number discrepancies, it’s likely due to rounding or an incomplete data set. Or maybe it’s just me.
As is tradition, I’d like you to ask yourself some questions about found discs. Take a guess, maybe ask your buddies what they think, and see how close you get to the actual data. Put a couple of bucks on it if that’s your thing. I’ll give you a little location context so you know what you’re working with.
 
Where were these discs found?
Basket - 2
Brush - 9
Fairway - 43
Marsh/Mud - 17
Woods - 91
On Ice - 7
Roof - 2
Water - 429
SCUBA - 323
 
Summarized into some cleaner percentages:
Water - 81%
Land - 19%
 
I’ll talk about some thoughts on the locations a bit later. I split Water and SCUBA in the table even though there’s some overlap. If a disc was listed as found in the water, it was recovered either using a retriever or wading. SCUBA is self explanatory. While there are no doubt some SCUBA discs that were found close enough to shore for wading, these were generally deeper and more inaccessible for somebody out just playing.
 
Here are your questions.
1. How many discs were marked with a name and number?
2. What’s my disc return rate?
3. What brand/manufacturer was lost most frequently?
4. What speed of disc was lost most frequently?
5. What color of disc was lost most frequently?
6. What type of plastic was lost most frequently?
7. What molds were most commonly lost?
 
I don’t recommend scrolling down much more prior to taking your guesses.
 
1. How many discs were marked with a name and number?
This, along with return rate, was actually one of the pieces of information I wanted to know about when I first started thinking about the discs we were finding. It’s certainly a populacontroversial topic on discgolf.
 
Discs marked with number: 47%
Unmarked discs: 51%
Marked, but no number: 2%
 
So basically half of the discs I find are uninked. That number has fluctuated a bit over the years by a % or two but has really been consistent. The marked but no number discs usually have a PDGA #, but sometimes it’s just a name. In retrospect, I wish I kept track of how many times a bad number was present on the disc but oh well, that ship has sailed.
 
2. What is my disc return rate?
 
Total Return Rate (All Discs): 30%
Total Return Rate (Marked Discs Only): 65%
Total Return Rate (Unmarked Discs): 9%
 
We text the numbers on the discs we find. Ideally we get it done immediately when we find it as it makes meet-ups easier, but sometimes they’re too dirty and need a good scrubbing before we can read the number. If the text doesn’t work, they get a call. We also scan the local league page, which has a running lost disc thread, and see if we recognize anything. From there we either meet up at a course, arrange a drop-off location like under a trash can, or give it to a league person that can run the disc to its owner. We increased our efforts quite a bit to run “iffy” discs back this year. Last year we only bothered with numbered discs. This year we tried to run back pretty much everything. There’s a story behind it but figured I wouldn’t clutter up a data post too much.
There’s actually a lot to unpack with these numbers. For example, 65% of marked discs are returned. Seems kind of low, right? But many of those owners tell us to keep the disc. My numbers on this data isn’t great as I only kept track of it this last year, but I have records of being told to keep a found disc 49 times - that’s 12% of marked discs. If we consider those discs “returned”, our rate goes up to 77%. Those numbers are low - I’m guessing if I had kept better records of “keep its” it would bring us closer to 80% but that’s speculation.
Additionally, my buddy has a duffle bag of marked discs waiting to be returned sitting in his car. There’s 35 of them in there that have had positive contacts and are pending being returned. That’s another 9% if they ever get around to trying to get their stuff back (I know, it’s COVID, we’re trying to be understanding - most of these discs have been in there for months though). Anyway, moral of the story? 86% of marked discs are “accounted” for per their owners wishes and a good chunk of the 14% that’s left just had bad numbers. Others never get back to us and a few drop off the face of the earth after replying once or twice. A couple of times the owner had passed. It’s an unusual feeling when you find one of their discs.
That still leaves us with a lot of unmarked discs. This year we got a small chunk (9% of all unmarked discs, 4% of total discs found) of them returned. Part of it was coordination with the local league. Part of it was just conversation with other players on the course. My buddy is a talker and likes meeting people. One of the first things he asks is if they’ve played a given course before and if they’ve lost anything. Surprisingly, we’ve returned quite a few discs from these conversations.
What do we do with all the unreturned discs? After a few weeks I suppose we take ownership of them and do what we want. Usually we end up giving them away. We adore giving families and groups that are just starting piles of discs. One of the new things we picked up doing this year is making people whole when they’ve lost a disc. Sometimes we haven’t found the specific disc somebody lost but have an identical(ish) unmarked, unwanted, or unclaimed mold that we found that we can give them as a replacement. Sometimes we’ll sell a batch off if we’re getting ridiculous on storage. Helps pay for gear and gas and keeps the clutter down. It’s pretty rare we need to do that though - we’d rather give them to new players but that becomes a tricky proposition with the high speed stuff. A few we’ll keep and bag ourselves, but it’s pretty rare beyond maybe just trying a new mold out for a round or three.
 
3. What brand/manufacturer was lost most frequently?
 
Innova - 46%
Discraft - 23%
Dynamic - 6%
MVP - 6%
Westside - 4%
Latitude 64 - 4%
Axiom - 3%
Prodigy - 2%
DGA - 2%
Discmania - 1%
Streamline <1%
Gateway <1%
Legacy <1%
Vibram <1%
Unknown <1%
Millenium <1%
ESP <1%
Essential <1%
Lightning <1%
Plastic Addicts <1%
Wham-O <1%
Yikun <1%
 
Innova holds a commanding lead with Discraft being the only other significant contender. Merging companies like Trilogy and the MVP/Axiom/Streamline narrows things a bit, but not much. Last year I chunked the companies together based on who was manufacturing what, but with Discmania shopping around their sourcing I’m no longer certain who’s making what nowadays.
 
4. What speed of disc was lost most frequently?
 
2 - 3%
3 - 3%
4 - 4%
5 - 9%
6 - 5%
7 - 5%
8 - 3%
9 - 13%
10 - 7%
11 - 7%
12 - 15%
13 - 20%
14 - 5%
15 <1%
 
Data was taken from Infinitediscs’s flight information for each disc. I know there’s occasionally discrepancies between them and the manufacturers but I figured it would be best to pull information from one source.
 
Top 5 lost speeds:
Speed 13 - 20%
Speed 12 - 15%
Speed 9 - 13 %
Speed 5 - 9%
Speed 10 and Speed 11 - 7%
 
Loss % By Type:
High Speed Drivers (11-14) – 47%
Fairway/Control Drivers (7-10) – 28%
Mids (4-6) – 18%
Putters (1-3) – 6%
 
As is tradition, the high speed drivers dominate the lost disc category. I’m looking forward to breaking the land and water data apart as nearly all of the water holes I find discs on are under 300’ from tee to basket but hey, people are going to throw what they’re going to throw. It’s also a bit of a nuisance that putters and mids are the least frequently lost but the most useful disc to give to new players. If y’all could start trying to emulate Lizotte with some unmarked putters on water hazards I’d appreciate it. If he can clear nearly 500’ of water, surely you can manage 250’, right? Go for it... cough
 
5. What color of disc was lost most frequently?
 
Blue - 18%
Red - 14%
Yellow - 13%
Orange - 12%
Pink - 11%
White - 10%
Black - 9%
Green - 8%
Tye Dye - 4%
Purple - 3%
Gray - 2%
Violet - 2%
Brown, Clear, Copper, Gold, and Peach each represented less than 1% of found discs.
 
From year to year, the color averages seem to change the most with the exception of blue being on top. One thing I noticed, however, is that I lump all blue discs together regardless of shade while most of the other colors have a “lighter” and “darker” version so that is likely bloating its numbers a bit. I’m not certain why I recorded them that way. Lord knows I got creative with plenty of other shades. For the purpose of simplicity, all discs marked “burgundy, wine, chartreuse, seafoam, turquoise” or any other oddball description got shoved into an arbitrarily “close enough” color category. Apparently some days I must feel poetic while recording these things.
 
6. What type of plastic was lost most frequently?
 
Premium Grippy "Star, ESP, Neutron, etc" - 40%
Premium Translucent "Champ, Opto, Z, etc" - 34%
Base - 14%
Pro - 5%
Flexible - 4%
Glow - 2%
Light - 2%
 
I lumped all the different plastic brands into “close enough” varieties. Flexy, glow, and lightweight discs all got dumped together regardless of what plastic variety they were built into.
I’m guessing a lot of folks thought base plastic would be the most common, but turns out it’s fairly rare in comparison to the premium plastics. I wonder if a lot of it gets retired into peoples’ garages and basements when they decide they like the game and upgrade. Those starter kits have to end up somewhere….
 
7. What molds were most commonly lost?
As is tradition, I’ll be listing these according to the total number found instead of %. Unfortunately there wasn’t a clean “break” point so I’ll just arbitrarily pick...double digits I guess.
 
Destroyer - 63
Boss - 26
Katana - 25
Valkyrie - 23
Beast - 20
Wraith - 20
Shryke - 19
Nuke SS - 18
Buzzz - 17
Nuke - 17
Teebird - 16
Firebird - 15
Sidewinder - 15
Leopard - 13
Tern - 13
Vulcan - 13
Sheriff - 12
Avenger SS - 11
Thrasher - 10
Crank - 10
Colossus - 10
 
Ah, Destroyers - I knew you were the disc we were finding the most of, and every year you prove me right by preposterous ratios. Actually, I’m a bit surprised to see so many Innovas firmly entrenched in the top 10. The list has definitely shifted through the years. Heck, the first year Drones (of all discs) made the top 5. I don’t think I’ve found one since….
Anecdotally, the Kong/Zeus/McBeth Driver just barely missed the list - it’s definitely trying hard to catch up. I have a sneaking suspicion it may actually have made the double digit list but I think two “Prototypes” got marked as Hades due to what the owners indicated they thought they were, but I’m not so sure they weren’t Zeuses. Eh, who knows - we’ll see it on the list next year I’m betting.
For the morbidly curious - there were 118 “Unicorn” discs, of which only one example of that given mold was found. Definitely not bitter about having to look up the flight numbers for every single stinking one of them….
A grand total of 271 different molds were found. 4 discs I was unable to identify - two oddball Innovas that had no markings and I just couldn’t figure out and 2 generic ones that probably came out of a Costco “Frolf” set or something.
 
And some stats for funsies….
Total discs I’ve found courses on: 23 out of 43 played - or 53% of courses played I’ve found a disc on.
Disc finding rate: 606 discs found over 503 rounds played = 1.2 discs a round
Note: I’ve removed the SCUBA discs from this but there were instances we went out just to wade instead of playing a course so this number is inflated a bit. We do find a lot of discs while playing - 2 or 3 isn’t all that weird. More if we have to go into the water to get one we lose ourselves. Also, this is not accounting for rounds played prior to U-Disc, but I wasn’t finding them at nearly the rate I do now. It’s accurate enough for a hipfire statistic. Most discs found in one day: 73 - SCUBA diving, two tanks of air
 
Average Discs Found on 1 Tank of Air - 25
 
u/mechanickzilla made a comment in a recent thread about lugging out a bunch of gear to a pond and searching for hours for 30 discs. It amused me because it sounded right. Turns out to be a pretty darn close estimate! A tank of air lasts roughly an hour. If I average out all SCUBA time it works out to be 25 discs per tank/hour in the water. I did refine my technique from early days and upped my efficiency quite a bit this year - turns out if I bring a salvage bag and don’t rise to toss discs to shore every time my hands were full I get a LOT more search time out of a tank and my average rises to 32 discs per tank, or about a disc every 2 minutes. There is some prep and cleanup time involved so I suppose strictly speaking the rate is lower if I want to account for the entire process instead of just time in the water.
 
Where discs are being found - 34% on one course, 48% on another, so 82% of discs were found on only two courses.
 
Most discs returned to one person - I’ve honestly lost count. I know he’s up to 12 or 15 and that’s a conservative estimate.
 
Most frequently found disc - A blue teebird we’ve returned 4 times. Haven’t seen the previous champion blue Rogue for quite some time. I’ll have to ask the owner what happened to it.
 
Find anything else interesting?
A half dozen vape pens, a jar of marijuana, 8 golf clubs, hundreds of golf balls, 4 golden retrievers (the disc retriever, not the dog), 3 sunglasses, a couple of cell phones, 3 unopened beers, a couple of rakes, untold millions of towels, a bluetooth speaker, 3 sets of car keys, 1 pair of kid-sized glasses, 5 bicycles, and a rifle case.
 
About Location
Location turned out to be a bit trickier to classify than I thought and I’ve changed and reclassified things several times now. For a while it was just woods and water, but that really didn’t do a good job of describing finding something on shore or in a basket. Here’s what I ended up with:
Brush - anything not mowed without trees. Includes briars, bushes, and long grass. You’ll notice there are not a lot of these - that’s because I HATE walking through these areas and avoid them. A lot of the ones we found in this condition were there because we were looking for one of our own or we were cleaning up the course and happened to stumble across one while brushwhacking or something. Seriously, long grass is the WORST to look through. I feel for those of you that fight with it and really, really appreciate the courses that cut search paths through it.
Marsh - the swampy, mucky crap that disc golf courses love to get built on because what else are you going to do with the land? Not quite enough to be able to submerge your disc, but plenty soggy enough that you’ll ruin a pair of shoes trying to walk through it. A lot of shore finds were reclassified to this.
Fairway - anything mowed. I’m always surprised at how many discs we find on the fairway. I suspect some of them are blown down from being stuck in trees. Others are no doubt forgotten. A few are probably bad throws that rolled to someplace ridiculous. A lot of times we get these back to groups actively on the course, but a surprising amount of times we don’t.
I think the rest are pretty self-explanatory.
 
Why? Just...why?
Nearly 1000 entries is a lot to monkey with (believe me, I entered every damned one of them - many of them two or three times as I revised and improved my organization). The data collection started more or less by accident. My buddy and I were playing nearly daily and we were stumbling across a steady stream of discs. We speculated about what disc we were finding the most of (there were three or four reasonable contenders) but really didn’t have firm answers, just hazy recollections and some finger counting.
In an attempt to answer our whimsically discussed question, I dug through my storage bin and counted. That left me with some numbers, but not the whole picture. I realized that there were quite a few discs that we’d returned, given away, or sold over the year prior. Fortunately, I had been in the habit of texting numbers to try and return discs and we both tended to take pictures if we found something on the course to show our friends. I had also started a disc golf journal I was keeping on Google Calendar and, for whatever reason, had been noting when we found a disc on the course. Between that documentation and memory (there were less than a hundred or so discs at the time, so it was easy to remember where I had found a given disc) I was able to put together a fairly decent, but somewhat incomplete, starting point for data. Sometimes data was missing, like color or plastic, but it was something to work with.
I did what I could to keep the data “true” and no doubt neglected to account for some discs simply because I didn’t have documentation for them. I guarantee, for example, some discs were found on the course that were left by the group ahead of us and returned nearly immediately that did not get recorded. I also didn’t record discs lost and found from my own party. When in doubt, I left it out. It means some of my numbers are a bit different from one category to another as well. For example, I may have had documentation on the mold found, but not its color. As I collected the data and put them into an actual spreadsheet (Let me assure you, tracking data in Google Calendar is...not recommended) I realized there was certain data I wanted and began making a concentrated effort to keep track of it. There’s still mistakes and omissions, no doubt, but it should be pretty darn solid.
Is the data good for anything? Hard to say. It’s a significant data pool, but the questions that can be asked of it are not always clear. The reason we find so many Innova discs, for example, is probably not because they are more prone to being lost than other brands, but rather that they are more popular and more thrown, and thus more likely to be lost and found.
Color becomes more tricky - am I finding a lot of blue discs because they are more popular or are they easier to see and thus be found? Discs found with SCUBA are usually felt rather than seen, is there a difference between colors found on land and water?
Finding trends may also be possible. It’s possible to isolate discs found by park per year they were found (heck, down to the date if need be) so perhaps we can find changes from year to year in a given location. It’s something I plan to dig into and post about from time to time.
One area I could use some advice on is classifying discs by stability. The spreadsheet currently includes Speed, Turn, and Fade numbers along with quantity. For each mold of disc. I had planned on identifying discs on stable/neutral/understable but those definitions are not particularly clear. If anybody has thoughts on how this could be organized I’d love to hear them. Right now I’m looking at maybe displacement from 0 or something but I have a hard time calling a -2/2 disc like a Valk “Neutral”. I suppose I could break them down strictly by the listed fade/turn numbers. Shouldn’t be more than a dozen combinations.
Anyway, I suppose there is no “why” other than curiosity and a desire to contribute to the community. I think it’s interesting so I’m posting it. Not going to lie, I like seeing if it’s enough to earn a “Quality Post” tag as well. As bad as a kid with a sticker chart, I swear.
Feel free to ask questions - I do plan on breaking down data by year, location, and stability (once I figure out how to organize it) so there will likely be a few extra posts this year.
submitted by 1-Down to discgolf [link] [comments]

Confidence Intervals, P-values, and Statistical Significance

TL;DR: Vegan Gains is incorrect. All cause mortality risks relative to regular meat eaters for low meat eaters, fish eaters, and vegetarians/vegans aren't different. The authors didn't contradict themselves or get the data wrong (shocking), it's just that Destiny and Vegan Gains didn't clearly state and understand the null hypothesis in question.
Context: Vegan Gains was debating Destiny and cited Mortality in vegetarians and comparable nonvegetarians in the United Kingdom to demonstrate that simply reducing meat intake isn't enough - to significantly reduce all cause mortality, you have to be vegan. Destiny noted that the following sentence that seemed to contradict Vegan Gains:
When we excluded data for participants known to have changed diet group at least once during follow-up, leaving data for 4270 deaths before age 90, there was no significant difference in risk between diet groups for all causes of death combined, as follows: low meat eaters, HR: 0.93 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.02); fish eaters, HR: 0.91 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.02); and vegetarians and vegans, HR: 0.92 (95% CI: 0.84, 0.99) compared with regular meat eaters; P-heterogeneity = 0.13
Vegan Gains stated he doesn't care what the authors said in the paper - what matters are the numbers. And the numbers clearly show that the confidence intervals for the hazard ratio of the vegetarian/vegan group don't cross the null (i.e. don't contain 1, as it ranges from 0.84 to 0.99); thus, there is a significant difference. So who is right here?
Definitions: skip if you already know
Hazard Ratio: basically rate of death in one group as compared to another group. In this study, reported hazard ratios are rate of death of one of the 3 diet groups as compared to regular meat eaters. For example, if I have a hazard ratio of 5 for fish eaters, that means they die at a rate 5 times that of regular meat eaters (which would be bad for fish eaters). A hazard ratio of 1 or close to 1 would mean similar rates (i.e. not much of a difference in death rates). An HR beneath 1 would be good for that diet (they die less).
P-value: the probability that (assuming the null hypothesis is correct) you'd see results at least as extreme as the ones you observed if you performed the same analysis again. For example, if I do an analysis to see what the correlation is between basketball players and height, we could say my null hypothesis is r=0 (there's no correlation). Let's say I find an 85% correlation, and the p-value is 0.0000001%. That means that, if the null hypothesis is true (there's no correlation), there'd be a 0.0000001% chance of observing results at least as extreme as an 85% correlation. In other words, that's super unlikely so we can reject the null (we reject the idea that there's no correlation). In this example, we're talking about p-values for correlation. We can also make p-values for hazard ratios.
95% Confidence Interval: basic idea is to think of it as a range of values that hopefully captures our parameter that we care about. I.E. let's say I am about to calculate a 95% confidence interval for the average weight of women. That interval will have a 95% chance of including the true average weight of women (and if we calculate it, it might come out to be like 160-180 pounds for example). In this example, we're talking about confidence intervals for average weight. We can make confidence intervals for hazard ratios as well.
Can confidence intervals tell you significance by "crossing the null"? Yes:
There's another interpretation of confidence intervals that allows you to determine statistical significance, since the p-value and the confidence interval are actually mathematically linked to one another (don't need to know how, just know they are). If the confidence interval includes your null hypothesis value, you cannot reject the null hypothesis. If it doesn't include your null hypothesis value, you can reject the null hypothesis. Further, your p-value should agree with the result from the confidence interval (i.e. a confidence interval that crosses the null means we should have a non-significant p-value). Likewise, if your p-value is significant, you will necessarily see that your confidence interval doesn't include the null. I don't know why the people Destiny brought on were saying you can't use confidence intervals to assess significance. Regardless, in this case, Vegan Gains is claiming that the null hypothesis is a hazard ratio of 1 (i.e. vegetarians/vegans have the same rate of death as regular meat eaters). If the confidence interval encompasses that (e.g. 0.8-1.2), we see no significant difference. Finally, that leads us to this ...
Explaining the discrepancy: Is VG right? No.
So isn't Vegan Gains right? After all, 0.82-0.99 doesn't include 1. Well, there's a problem. They actually calculated a p-value for us in the part I quoted. A p-value of 0.13. That p-value isn't significant at the 0.05 significance threshold (which is what we're using given 95% confidence intervals). How can this be? I just said that the confidence interval and p-value need to agree when it comes to determining significance. There's only one solution: the null hypothesis isn't that the HR = 1.
The discrepancy is that the authors wanted to know how the hazard ratios relative to regular meat eaters of each of the diet groups compared to each other (low meat, fish eaters, and vegetarians/vegans). When you do that statistical test, you find none of them are significantly different (P=0.13). Basically, the hazard ratio for low meat eaters isn't significantly different from the hazard ratio of vegan/vegetarians. The null hypothesis in this case would be that the HR for low meat = HR for fish eaters = HR for vegetarians/vegans. Since we fail to reject, we have failed to detect a statistically significant difference of the death rates (relative to regular meat eating) across the three diets.
Vegan Gains is looking at which of the 3 diets are significantly different from regular meat eaters by looking at their confidence intervals. The null hypothesis in this case would be 3 separate ones for each diet (e.g. HR for vegans/vegetarians = 1; HR for fish eaters = 1; HR for low meat eaters = 1). I think the problem here is that a proper analysis would require a correction for multiple tests, since you're doing 3 separate tests, and VG hasn't done this, so to claim that this data shows that only being vegan/vegetarian is sufficient to reduce all-cause mortality isn't the case.
What if we separate vegetarians and vegans? Maybe those cheese-breathers are dragging us down.
The authors did this. Results for vegans were: HR: 1.14 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.35). Not significantly different from any of the other diet groups. Confidence interval crosses 1. The analysis goes in detail about various causes of death and how vegans compare to regular meat eaters. I didn't read the whole study. Just thought it was worth pointing out.
If I got anything wrong, please correct me, and I'll update the post accordingly.
submitted by PeacefulChaos379 to Destiny [link] [comments]

Drive Syndicate Complete guide (ongoing)

(Probably) FINAL UPDATE 1/3 I have hit my wall, and so have others. This event IS. NOT. BEATABLE. Details in Updates.
I will still answer questions throughout the event if anyone still needs help!
​
Table of Contents (To easily find what you want)
  1. Updates
  2. Introduction
  3. Important Points and major differences
  4. What Hazard level to go for? (With in-depth details)
  5. Should I buy SC in the relay packs?
  6. About Pinned Missions
  7. Tricks for getting more Syndicate Coins
  8. Desert Disaster
  9. Lightspeed Chase
  10. Among Skyscrapers
  11. Twilight Getaway
Spreadsheet mentioned

1. Updates

(1/3 final update)
(12/29)
(12/26)
(12/24)
​
(12/22)

2. Introduction

Once again, I am making this guide from my own experience. I will do my best to post as much as I can, but I can't promise everything. I will update as much as possible. I will put a strike through anything that I originally say but turns out to be different. I will post an update and when in bold. That said, I will do my best.
If you are looking for the Rimac DS event on Switch, I made a guide for it last year, and it should be the same. Here is the link IMPORTANT POINT: According to other players on Switch, the event is NOT the same as my previous guide. It appears to be more P2W. So, use it more as a guideline rather than completely accurate. Sorry :/

3. First off, key differences and other key points (Important)(Updated 12/22)!

4. Should I always aim for Hazard Level 3? Or is level 2/1 okay?

Easy tl;dr: For cars you don't already have, keeping it two stars BELOW MAX is the most effecient! ALWAYS do the level 3 races if you already have it pretty high. (At least for cars so far). THIS IS ASSUMING THESE CARS WON'T NEED TO BE FULLY STARRED LATER ON.
Slightly more detailed tl;dr: Depends on your end goal/what you have. If you already have a lot of BP for many cars, do the level 3 races only. And if you get lucky on the rolls. If you don't think you can fully staupgrade your car, you can do the lower ones, but will get significantly less SC. If you already have the car fully starred, or close to fully starred, definitely do the level 3 ones. Otherwise, star it to two stars below max.
Now the math. Basically, the ratio for level 3 is roughly 2:1. For level 2, about 5-6:1. For level 1, about 6-7:1. So if you double the number of races at level 2 rather than level 3, reaching the same amount of SP, you will still have less SC.
Here is a spreadsheet of all the details
One extra thing, u/LordMadPunt made a decent point: "You can eke out a few extra SPs with this rule (also from the previous DS): Always use the highest hazard level that does not complete the mission. If completing the mission is unavoidable, use the highest hazard level for that." This is a good point to get just a little extra from the missions. However, if the SP will be the same (as seen in the last line of my spreadsheet), level 3 is still best.

But what if you don't want to/can't upgrade your car all the way?

I did the math on that for in both Lightspeed Chase and Among Skyscrapers. Whatever you do, you will need BMW I8 Roadster at at least 2*, fully upgraded. To get to 4*, you will need 75 BP. The drop rate for the packs is 20%. Using just this, lets say it would take about 32 rolls, or 160,000 SC, then buy all 10 of the individual BP (much cheaper), for 14,500 SC. Total, 174,500.
But that is a pretty crappy situation, because it doesn't take into account the guaranteed drops. I found that I got on average about 2.7 per roll. 75 BP - 10 individual BP = 65 BP / 2.7 = about 24 rolls. 24x5000 = 120,000 + 14,500 for the individual BP, 134,500 SC. Still a lot. But again, it depends on your luck.
What do you get by fully starring? For 3*, 10000 SC in pinned missions, and for 4* 20000 SC. Then take into mind the losses in not doing the hazard level 3 and then 2. I didn't calculate this when I originally did it, but from my own guesses from my other calculations. Let's say even liberally, (can someone confirm?) another 20000 SC lost.
In total, this is 50,000 SC you can get from having a fully starred.
This is no where close to the amount spent. Even from my more realistic, better chance roll, that is still 134,500 - 50,000 = 84,500 extra you will have to pay.
In short, you will get to keep more SC by only starring up BMW I8 Roadster to 2\. Even if my math is off a bit, still a much better deal! I 4\ it all the way, and I personally really like it, but it seems like it is not needed.
What about the Arrinera Hussarya 33? Whatever you do, you will need Arrinera Hussarya 33 at at least 3*, fully upgraded. To get to 5*, you will need 63 BP.
Using the above rate, you will need to roll 20 times for 53 BP, (150,000 SC) plus all 10 individual BP (22,000ish?), which is 172,000. What do you miss? 50,000 in pinned missions, and to my calculations, about another 50,000 in Hazard 3 missions. 172,000 - 100,000 = 72,000 extra needed to fully star.
Key point! This is assuming you have no BP of the Arrinera Hussarya 33 at the beginning of the event. Fewer BP are needed obviously, so it costs less to fully star. I had the Arrinera Hussarya 33 already fully starred, so it makes sense to fully star and do the level 3 races if you have it already or are close.
Conclusion? If you don't start with the car fully starred or close to it, don't spend the SC to do it unless you get lucky with a higher drop rate or luck with jackpots. Unless of course you like that car and want to fully star it :P
Even if my estimations for SC earned from level 3 races is way off, it still isn't worth it if you start from zero on that car*.*

5. Should I buy SC with tokens in the shop?

Easy answer, yes, at least the first 2 or 3. I personally bought the first two (totaling 50,000SC) at the beginning, as that was what I needed last year. Once I needed to star up the I8 Roadster, I didn't quite have enough SC to star it up without buying any. You might get lucky, but it is Gameloft. Then, when I got to Lightspeed Chase III, I needed more, so the first purchase was definitely needed. When I started Lightspeed IV, I had no choice but to buy the third pack (50,000)

6. About "PINNED MISSIONS" for extra SC

7. Tricks for getting more Syndicate coins

There are a few little tricks to get the most Syndicate coins as possible. u/dragom7 made a great page with details you can find here. I have tested it myself, and it works! Especially the intentional losing of a match (thanks also u/neverchurningbutter!). Go for the lowest ratio in this spreadsheet, and thanks to u/dragom7's suggestion, I highlighted the races with the best and worse ratios (starting from Twilight Getaway). Just be careful, the way I wrote ratios and the way he did are different!
Also, as mentioned in other areas, if Syndicate Coins is a priority, be sure to NOT upgrade your cars all the way.
(Update 12/24) Also also, some level 2 hazard races have a ratio worse than some level 1s, so check out this spreadsheet to find out what has the best ratios are.
(Update 12/24) If you are REALLY pushing to get the most SC (and you have the time to watch extra ads), intentionally lose frequently if the ratio isn't good. In theory, you could get a lot more if you only played the ones with good ratios. It would just take a long time....
​

8. Desert Disaster

This one is very straight forward. It does not take any Hazard Level during the whole thing, most (all?) are just "Finish the race" goals. You get to used a maxed Rimac for free, and all the races are on the new Nevada track. It is pretty easy to get first if you are used to the track from A8 back in the day. New players may have a little trouble because THIS CAR IS FAAAASST. So heads up. But all in all, all four of these are pretty easy (including a special little surprise for the story at the end...)
*30 BP for the I8 Roadster is given as a reward at the end, unlocking it.*
You can get 10,000 SC from pinned missions.

9. Lightspeed Chase

The main races are done in San Francisco.
For the BMW I8 Roadster:
2* 23BP
3* 33BP
4* 42BP (Yes, 4* is needed this time around in order to get the Hazard Level 3 races as well as the pinned missions)
Total Credit cost was more than 1,500,000. A lot. Do the Daily credit events. I will try to record exactly how much for other cars.
One pack is 500 SC, (10-pack 5000 SC). Individual BP are available starting at 1000 SC, then 1100 SC, 1200 BP, etc., up to 10 BP.
Epic Card for BMW I8 Roadster: 27,778 SC (one also available from Milestones from MP 12/18-12/24) (Update, event over). Each additional epic costs 10% more (2778(?) more) each time you buy one.
In general, the courses aren't too bad. Unlike the previous event, you can't restart the game to change the options. Once you get to Lightspeed Chase II, two levels appear. At Lightspeed Chase III, three levels appear. DO NOT DO THE LOWER LEVEL ONES. ONLY THE LEVEL 3 ONES if you are trying to go all the way, as these give the best SC ratio. See #2 above for why this is no longer true.
As stated above, if your goal is to fully upgrade the BMW I8 Roadster, do so before unlocking Among Skyscrapers, as the purchasable BP and the Epic Parts will no longer be available. This means not finishing Lightspeed Chase V.
In Lightspeed Chase V, you will use the Bugatti La Voiture Noire, which will require upgrades to stage 1 (Yes, just stage one). HOWEVER this requires 4,600 SC for each of all four parts, a total of 17,400 SC. Keep this in mind while you play Lightspeed Chase.
The last stage also is a 1v1 race with a time of 1:49 to beat. Note that this is the first race with a time goal. You won't be able to beat the other racer, as the Green Lizard is supposed to have a superior ride at this point. The time itself, without any big mistakes, is not a big challange.
*30 BP for the Arrinera Hussarya 33 is given as a reward at the end.* It takes 35 BP (according to the wiki page) to unlock. You can get the remainder from the shop when Lightspeed V is completed.
At the end of Lightspeed Chase, I had about 55,000 SC (including the 150,000 SC bought with tokens) to get going on Among Skyscrapers.
Pinned Missions SC given:
Lightspeed Chase I: 10,000.Lightspeed Chase II: 10,000.Lightspeed Chase III: 10,000.Lightspeed Chase IV: 20,000

10. Among Skyscrapers

The main races are done in New York.
For the Arrinera Hussarya 33 (the wiki page):
1* 35BP (Yes, you will need 5 more BP than what is given as a reward)
2* 15BP
3* 21BP
4* 28BP
5* 35BP (Fully upgraded, but epic parts not needed)
​
One pack is 750 SC, (10-pack 7500 SC). Individual BP are available starting at 1500 SC. I don't know how much is goes up nor how many are available, as I already had this fully starred. If it is the same as the BMW, it will go up 10% after each one bought. *Someone hit me up and I will add it!
Epic Card for Arrinera Hussaryar 33: 41,667 SC. Each additional epic costs 10% more (4167 more) each time you buy one.
In general, the courses aren't too bad. Unlike the previous event, you can't restart the game to change the options. Once you get to Among Skyscrapers II, two levels appear. At Among Skyscrapers III, three levels appear. DO NOT DO THE LOWER LEVEL ONES if you have it at a high level already. ONLY THE LEVEL 3 ONES if you are trying to go all the way, as these give the best SC ratio. See 2.Should I always aim for hazard level 3? Or are level 1/2 okay? above for details as to why.
As stated above, if your goal is to fully upgrade the Arrinera Hussaryar 33, do so before finishing Among Skyscrapers VI, as the purchasable BP and the Epic Parts will no longer be available.
In Among Skyscrapers VI, you will use the Bugatti La Voiture Noire, which will require upgrades to stage 2 . This requires 7,500 SC each for all four parts, a total of 30,000 SC.
The last stage also is a 1v1 race with a time of 1:47 to beat. You won't be able to beat the other racer (I freakin 360 spinned him and he crashed at82% of the course, and he still won!), as the Green Lizard is supposed to have a superior ride at this point.
*30 BP for the Apex AP-0 is given as a reward at the end.* It takes 45 BP (according to the wiki page) to unlock. You can get the remainder from the shop when Among Skyscrapers VI is completed.
On a bit of a strange note, I had the absolute worse luck on the pinned missions in Among Skyscrapers III. The starting amount was always low and it took me FOREVER to get it maxed.
At the end of Among Skyscrapers, I had about 55,000 SC (including the 150,000 SC bought with tokens), to get going on Among Skyscrapers. But, I already had the Hussarya 33 fully starred. This seems pointless to point out since everyone will be at a different points/SC amounts depending on what cars they already have unlocked as well as what path they choose.
Pinned Missions SC given:
Among Skyscrapers I: 10,000.Among Skyscrapers II: 10,000.Among Skyscrapers III: 10,000.Among Skyscrapers IV: 20,000.Among Skyscrapers V: 30,000.

11. Twilight Getaway

The main races are done in Rome.
For the Apex AP-0 (the wiki page):
1* 45BP 2* 17BP 3* 23BP 4* 32BP 5* 45BP
Twilight Getaway I: Hazard 3 2626 (1*) Pinned Missions: 15,000 SC
Twilight Getaway II: Hazard 3 2926 (2*) Hazard 2 2626(1*) Pinned Missions: 15,000 SC
Twilight Getaway III: Hazard 3 3189 (3*) Hazard 2 2926 (2*) Hazard 1 2626(1*) Pinned Missions: 15,000 SC
Twilight Getaway IV: Hazard 3 3547 (4*) Hazard 2 3189 (3*) Hazard 1 2926(2*) Pinned Missions: 30,000 SC
Twilight Getaway V: Hazard 3 3810 (5*) Hazard 2 3547 (4*) Hazard 1 3189(3*) Pinned Missions: 45,000 SC
Twilight Getaway VI: Hazard 3 3980 (1*) LVN (INCLUDING IMPORT PARTS!)
One pack is 1250 SC, (10-pack 12500 SC). Individual BP are available starting at 2500 SC. I don't know how much is goes up nor how many are available, as I already had this fully starred. If it is the same as the BMW, it will go up 10% after each one bought. *Someone hit me up and I will add it!
Epic Card for Apex Ap-0 : 69,444 SC Each additional epic costs 10% more (6944 more) each time you buy one.
The difficulty has stepped up in this set, at least for me it felt that way. Be sure to play only Hazard level 3 missions through Twilight Getaway III if you can, as 3* Apex is REQUIRED to move on.
As stated above, if your goal is to fully upgrade the Apex AP-0, do so before finishing Twilight Getaway VI, as the purchasable BP and the Epic Parts will no longer be available.
In Twilight Getaway VI, you will use the Bugatti La Voiture Noire, which will require upgrades to stage 3 . This requires 12,000 SC each for all four parts, a total of 48,000 SC. This needs three import parts EACH, which are 18,000 SC each, for a total of 216,000!! (CONFIRMED 12/24)
The last stage also is a 1v1 race with a time of 1:46 to beat. You (probably) won't be able to beat the other racer, as the Green Lizard is supposed to have a superior ride at this point.
*30 BP for the Porsche 911 GT RS is given as a reward at the end.* It takes 55 BP (according to the wiki page) to unlock. You can get the remainder from the shop when Twilight Getaway VI is completed.

12. Burning Pursuit

The main races are done in Cairo.
*NOTE: This is the first section of the event that needs a 4* car to advance. Also, thanks a bunch to broius for info of parts beyond what I could get! Proof
For the Porsche 911 GT3 RS (the wiki page):
1* 55BP 2* 18BP 3* 24BP 4* 32BP 5* 47BP 6* 47BP
Burning Pursuit I: Hazard 3 2109 (1*) Pinned Missions: 20,000 SC
Burning Pursuit II: Hazard 3 2458 (2*) Hazard 2 2109(1*) Pinned Missions: 20,000 SC
Burning Pursuit III: Hazard 3 2806 (3*) Hazard 2 2458 (2*) Hazard 1 2109 (1*) Pinned Missions: 20,000 SC
Burning Pursuit IV: Hazard 3 3285 (4*) Hazard 2 2806 (3*) Hazard 1 2458 (2*) Pinned Missions: 20,000 SC
Burning Pursuit V: Hazard 3 3677 (5*) Hazard 2 3285 (4*) Hazard 1 2806 (3*) Pinned Missions: 60,000 SC
Burning Pursuit VI: Hazard 3 3893 (6*) Hazard 2 3677 (5*) Hazard 1 3285 (4*) Pinned Missions: 100,000 SC
Burning Pursuit VII: Hazard 3 UNKNOWN. 4007 (2*) YUP YOU READ THAT RIGHT! YOU GOTTA STAR UP THIS THING! 45,000 SC for 10-pack, so probably around 900,000+ SC if you are lucky! Not to mention the upgrades themselves. I have yet to see a single person actually do it.
Here is a vid of a dude with 400,000 SC spending on the packs. Spoiler, he didn't get it.
One pack is 2000 SC, (10-pack 20000 SC). Individual BP are available starting at 4000 SC.
Epic Card for Porsche 911 GT3 RS : 111,111 SC Each additional epic costs 10% more (11,111 more) each time you buy one.
As stated above, if your goal is to fully upgrade the Porsche 911 GT3 RS, do so before finishing Burning Pursuit VII, as the purchasable BP and the Epic Parts will no longer be available (Update 1/3)If you are reading this, you won't be able to progress further, so take your time getting the epics if that is your goal.
(to be continued [edited] as I clear more/more becomes available if someone can actually get farther)
I really hope I can get all the way through the DS even :/ Won't happen, sadly...
submitted by conradbilly to Asphalt9 [link] [comments]

[BO1] Jeskai tempo looks promising

Just did 18-6 platinum run with Jeskai tempo. Losses include two games to double Tibalt's trickery, by the way. Good stuff. Izzet tempo used to run out of gas just before the finish line and with new saga it does not.
Decklist
Creatures:
4x Riddleform - dodges removal, triggers itself and sprite dragon
4x Sprite Dragon - can run away with the game if not answered
4x Bonecrusher Giant
4x Brazen borrower - it's OK here, good tempo play and adventure side plays well with saga. It rarely attacks as a creature, though.
​
Spells:
4x Spikefield Hazard - makes LSB sad
4x Roil Eruption - I've found that it's better to have sorcery that goes face than instant removal.
4x Shock
3x The Royal Scions - good tempo play, mostly used for +2/0 ability, can help discard dead cards. Bad on the draw against aggro.
2x Shatterskull Smashing
​
Engine:
3x Whirlwind of Thought - questionable against aggro but can win you game against control. Probably should be 2 of.
4x Showdown of the Skalds - amazing in this deck. You have empty board and hand, play saga. Next turn play sprite dragon, couple of spells and attach with 5/5 hasty flier.
Lands:
4x Raugrin Triome
4x Riverglide Pathway
4x Needleverge Pathway
4x Hengegate Pathway
2x Mountain
2x Island
26 total including dual-faced cards. You have to hit first 4 land drops with this deck.
​
Didn't make it:
Opt and Crush Through - you have to be proactive with this deck. One mana cantrip is a bad tempo.
Stormwing Entity - It's hard to cast and dies to removal too easily.
Phoenix of Ash - it's OK against Rogues but has no interaction with Whirlwind or Riddleform
More white spells - you can't afford to have unflexible white mana in early game
Counter magic - this deck wants to play spells on your turn to trigger Dragon and Riddleform. Probably in sideboard, but in BO1 it's a bad tempo.
So.
The deck is fun. It is fast, interactive, takes skill to pilot, and it can win by burning control player's face. What's not to like. I don't play BO3, because one game against "answer, answer, answer, swiper, answer, answer - BOMB" is fun enough. But probably this deck has potential there as well.
UPD. Platinum, not diamond - sorry. Right after rank reset.
​
UPD 2. Went through platinum with about 37-15 win-loose ratio. Deck looks consistently good, definitely the most fun I've had in magic in a while.
​
Notable matchups:
Grull: 3 - 1
Rogues: 1 - 3 lost one to a mana screw and one to triple freaking Crab. Hard but doable.
Yorion piles: 7 - freaking - 0 I am so happy. People put all sorts of crap into their Yorion piles now, so it will not be as goon in the future, but still.
Mono red: 6 - 4 - addition of Soul Sear helps a lot.
White: 2 - 0
Tibalt's coin flip: 5 - 2
Winotas: 3 - 0
Rakdos: 2 - 1 Lost to clear misplay, Whirlwind of Thought is really hard for them to deal with.
Control: 2 - 2 Lost two to Izzet dragon control, close matches, interesting to play against.
Strategy against aggro: Kill their things, outvalue in the mid to late game. Sometimes it is possible to kill them faster, but beware of Cleave. Against control: apply early pressure, cast Whirlwind of Thought, finish with burn spells.
Final list changes: minus two Shocks, one Borrower, one Scions. Plus three Soul Sear.
​
Thanks for bearing through my English :) Cucumber out.
submitted by Fractal_cucumber to spikes [link] [comments]

Brand new to the game? Gather round swabbies, lets get you started!

What's all this and why should I care?

I'm Thopterthallid. I like to write game guides as a hobby. I've been sailing the Sea of Theives since day one, and I've learned a thing or two. With Christmas having just past, and the game still half off on Steam, I've seen a HUGE influx of new players on the waves and in my crew. It's an exciting time to be a pirate and I want to help you get your sea legs and give you the best head start that I can.
I'll be writing this as a sort of blend between a guide and a F.A.Q post. And if you have any questions yourself, be sure to ask them in the comments! I'll try and answer everyone.

Here there be monsters.

The single most important thing to know and accept about Sea of Theives is that it has (for lack of a better term) "non-consensual PvP". This means that you'll be sharing the seas with other crews, and those ships are perfectly within their rights as defined by the game to attack you on sight. That's not to say that every crew you meet will be hostile though. Most crews I've come across are perfectly chill, and there's plenty of PvE content to keep what I'd say are the majority of players busy.
The second most important thing to know is that Sea of Thieves is not like Rust, or Ark. Nobody is going to destroy your things while you're offline, nobody can steal your gold or items you've bought, and the only things that can be taken from you are treasures you've yet to turn in, and freely spawning supplies you'll find in every barrel. You'll only be set back as much time as you're willing to risk, and maybe some bruised pride.
You will get boarded, cut down, shot, sunk, and burned by other players in this game. It's not cheating, it's not griefing, it's not against the rules of the game. If you can accept that, you'll have a great time with Sea of Thieves.

So what do you do in this game?

The gameplay loop of Sea of Thieves is a simple one. You'll set out on quests like bounties and treasure hunts, participate in world events like fleet battles and boss raids, and interact with other crews for better or worse. Your goal is to gather up treasures like chests, gems, cursed skulls, trinkets, trade goods, and animals to sell at outposts. With the gold you earn, you can buy cosmetic items like clothing, weapon skins, and ship parts. As you turn in treasures, your ranking in various factions called Trading Companies will rise. As you level up in Trading Companies, you'll unlock more lucrative voyages and new kinds of missions.
All progression in the game is either cosmetic, or unlocking ways to earn gold faster. Your pirate never grows stronger, your weapons deal the same damage as they did before, there's no magic blade that inflicts elemental effects, and your ship's hull never gets any more durable than it is. This might throw a few players off. It's definitely odd to play a multiplayer open world game like this and not find any sort of mechanical progression, but I think that's a testament to how fun the game is. We don't play because we're grinding levels to get to new content. We play because there's no other game like Sea of Thieves out there.

What should I be doing first?

The very first thing you should do is the Maiden Voyage. When you first launch Sea of Thieves, you'll be prompted to check out this tutorial mission. You'll be dropped on a safe, single-player island where you can get acquainted with the controls and feel of the game. For the cleverest and most determined pirates, there's a sizable gold reward hiding on the island for you. If you don't find it, don't worry. You can come back here any time from the main menu. Once you've completed the Maiden Voyage, you'll be placed into a live game. From here, you'll be offered the Onboarding Voyage. This will get you used to the loop of the game; get treasure, turn into NPC for a reward. After that, the sky is the limit and you've just unlocked 90% of the content in the game.
The first thing I'd suggest doing is talking to the Gold Hoarder in the green tent. He'll offer you some free starting voyages. The rewards for these early voyages are really low, but its important to understand how to locate and island, sail to it, retrieve treasure form it, and sail back. Luckily, these early voyages won't send you far. Bring the voyage to your ship and slap it down on the quest table. You'll either be given a riddle, a map, or some combination of both. Check your ship's sea chart to find the name of the island in the riddle, or the island that matches the picture on your map. You're already well on your way. Once you've become more acquainted with the seas, you can try an Order of Souls voyage or Merchant Alliance voyage.

What shouldn't I do early? What is that thing in the sky?

From time to time, you'll often see strange glowing symbols or trails in the air. These are world events and should be avoided when you're still learning the game.
A white skull cloud in the sky with green eyes is an active skeleton fort. Sailing near it is hazardous, as the fort's cannons will open fire on you. In addition, these tend to attract players. If you can defeat all the waves of skeletons inside, defeat the skeleton lord, and steal all the loot in the vault, you'll be very wealthy, but it's a tall order for a new player on their own.
A white skull cloud in the sky with red eyes is probably the most dangerous world event. The Fort of the Damned can only be summoned through a somewhat cryptic ritual involving acquiring a rare skull, and dying in six different fashions to unlock colored flames. This is the most valuable single activity in the game, and players will sail across the ocean to compete for it. I can't stress enough that you shouldn't even park at an island next to them unless you're prepared to be boarded and sunk. Players put a lot of time in starting the event and they WILL NOT tolerate you hiding nearby if they percieve you to be a threat.
A flaming tornado is the Ashen Winds event. On one of the large islands, one of four skeleton lords will spawn. They have tons of health, multiple forms, and are going to be the most heavily contested event during all of January save for a Fort of the Damned.
A cloud that looks like a galleon is the Skeleton Fleet Battle event. These are probably the least contested event in the game as they take a lot of resources to burn through. It's a good idea to keep your distance from these clouds as the skeleton ships that spawn will encircle your ship and broadside you with cursed cannonballs.
A glowing red skull in the sky wearing a hat is the Flameheart Fleet Battle. The ghostly ships that spawn are much more fragile than the ones from the other fleet battle, but cluster in much greater numbers. You'll need a lot of resources to defeat them all. Flameheart himself will comment on whats happening, such as another player ship entering the battle. The ghost ships sometimes drop crates full of cannonballs and planks, so it's not always a bad idea to sink a few to try and get one for a top up on supplies.
Glowing ribbon-like streams floating upwards signal the location of a Reaper's Chest or Reaper's Bounty. These treasures are worth a lot of gold and doubloons. These chests appear on maps as red or yellow skulls. which means if you pick one up, everyone will know where you are and where you're going. You'll need to take the chest to Reaper's Hideout near the center of the map. If you think you can get away with it, it's a good prize. Avoid it if you're carrying a lot of treasure you don't want to lose though.
As for other emergent encounters... You'll also meet Skeleton Sloops, Skeleton Galleons, Megalodons, and Krakens out on the seas. They're challenging opponents, but drop a decent bit of loot if you can take them out.

What are all the trading companies and what do I do with them?

The Gold Hoarders will send you on voyages to find buried chests. They'll give you riddles, or X-marks-the-spot type maps that lead you to troves of treasure which they can unlock for you if you split the contents with them. When you reach rank 25, they'll offer a new type of voyage that has you looking for map fragments that lead you to a vault full of treasure.
The Order of Souls will send you on voyages to destroy skeleton captains. These captains are tougher than normal skeletons and often have special traits to them, such as being immune to damage in the dark, or being made of gold. Once you reach rank 25, you'll be able to go on voyages to defeat ghostly fleets of galleons.
The Merchant Alliance will send you on Trade Good Voyages, which task you with finding supplies, animals, and gunpowder and delivering them to a specific outpost. They'll also send you on Cargo Runs, which task you with picking up fragile cargo from one island and taking it to another. Devil's Roar Cargo Runs are easily the best way to make money in the game. In the next update, they'll offer a new kind of voyage called Merchant Detectives that tasks us with locating lost shipments.
The Hunter's Call don't give out voyages. Instead, they'll buy any meat or fish you bring them. You'll get more gold and reputation by turning in cooked meals instead of raw. Some of the rarest fish in the game will sell for massive amounts of money. You won't find them on outposts. Instead, a Sea Dog's representative is waiting for you on each seapost. The tiny islands with little buildings on them. As an aside, Seaposts will sell clothing you can find in normal shops at a modest discount, so keep an eye out for deals!
The Sea Dogs don't give out voyages. Instead, they offer unique cosmetics for participating in the Arena. Separate from the normal adventure mode. Sadly, this mode never lived up to it's potential and won't be receiving any new updates. It's still worth playing to jump into ship to ship combat.
The Reaper's Bones don't give out voyages. Instead, they task players with hunting down emissaries and returning their flags to Reaper's Hideout.
Athena's Fortune are the "end game" trading company. Their voyages involve completing eight Gold Hoarder, Order of Souls, and Merchant missions before offering a voyage to dig up a chest of legends, one of the best chests in the game. To access this trading company, you need to reach rank 50 in three other trading companies.
The Bilge Rats are the event trading company. You don't rank up with them, but they'll offer seasonal voyages, event-based cosmetic items, and other cool things. You can also pay doubloons to get certain event triggering items like the Ritual Skull for Fort of the Damned.
It should be noted that none of the factions are "at war" with one another. In the lore, they often cooperate and work together (Aside from the reaper's bones). You can work with all eight trading companies without locking yourself out of the others.

What are emissaries?

The emissary system is a high risk, high reward style of playing. To be an emissary, you need to pay up 20,000 gold for the right to sail under a trading company's flag. Once you're an emissary, you can at any time raise the emissary flag by voting with your crew. When the flag is up, performing activities for that trading company will level up your flag up to 5. For example, if you're an Order of Souls emissary, you'll level up your flag by finding skulls, defeating captains, defeating skeleton lords, etc. If your ship sinks, you lose your flag and must raise it again from level 1. Levelling up your flag increases the gold reward for turning in items. Level 2 gets you an extra 33%. Level 3 gives you 66%. Level 4 doubles your reward, and having a level 5 flag gives you a whopping 2.5x bonus on all loot turned in for that faction.
Note that you only need to pay the 20,000 ONCE. Once you own the flag, you can raise it whenever you want.
The downside to playing as an emissary is that Reaper's Bone's players will be out to find you. By levelling up a Reaper's Bones flag to level 5, that crew will be able to see ALL other emissaries on the map. To balance this out, all Reaper's Bones emissaries appear on the map regardless of their level.

What else is there to do when I'm bored of voyages?

Tall Tales make a great chance of pace. Long adventures that will have you sail all over the world solving riddles, exploring dungeons, dodging traps, and fighting skeleton lords. Sea of Thieves has a surprisingly rich lore, and new world activities like Flameheart's fleet and the Ashen Winds raid that are added to the game are set into motion by events that occur during these story quests. I don't recommend them for brand new players as they tend to require a little bit of knowledge of the world, but don't skip out on them.

What is the Devil's Roar?

The Devil's Roar is the easternmost area of the Sea of Thieves. Its a series of volcanic islands that are very hazardous to pirate and ship alike. Volcanic rocks, earthquakes, steam geysers, and ashen skeletons are just some of the dangers that lurk in this area. If you're brave enough to explore it, all the loot you'll find there is worth double the value of normal loot. It's a great place to earn money, and PvP players tend not to venture there. Just be sure to drop what you're doing and run back to the boat when the caldera starts to smolder, otherwise there's a good chance your ship will be at the bottom of the ocean when you get there.

How do the microtransactions work?

Sea of Thieves has a microtransaction store called the Pirate Emporium. Microtransactions gross a lot of people out, but I don't think that Sea of Thieves does it in an especially predatory or icky way. I'll try to give as non-bias of an opinion as I can.
Pros:
Cons:
As I said before, you CAN earn Ancient Coins in game, but there's a big catch. You can only get them by defeating Ancient Coin Skeletons. These skeletons are absurdly rare, and in my hundreds of hours of playing I've only seen two. The combined total of Ancient Coins they gave me were barely enough to get a cheap emote. It's almost a non factor. THAT SAID, Rare is adding new ways to earn Ancient Coins in the next update. We'll see how it goes.
All things considered, I think that it's handled with at least some level of tact. It's not shoved in your face, and they avoid most of the big predatory tactics.

Quick FAQs:

How do I get a pet? The only way to get pets is to buy them in the Pirate Emporium. You'll need Ancient Coins which can be purchased for real money, or dropped from the VERY rare Ancient Coin Skeletons.
How do I know when food is cooked? Food will change color twice. Raw > Undercooked and then Undercooked > Cooked a few seconds later. There will also be a sound queue that sounds more sizzly. Fish will turn golden brown with white eyes.
What do different kinds of cannonballs do?
What are the advantages of each ship?
Sloop:
Brigantine:
Galleon:
How do I get different colored lanterns?
When you die, the torch on the ferry of the damned will offer you a flame of fate. Raise your lantern and press the button prompt to take that colored flame. The color you get is determined by how you died:
When you have the flame in your lantern, you can set your ship's lanterns to those colors as well!
Where do I turn in this treasure?
Sometimes you'll find some strange treasure that doesn't go who you expect it to. Here's a quick guide:
Good techniques?
If you hold block while charging a sword, you can more freely move before performing a sword lunge. Jump just before you lunge to launch yourself great distances through water.
When digging, double tap the X key after each strike of your shovel to put it away and take it back out. You'll be able to dig treasure almost twice as fast.
When a riddle tells you to count paces, equip your compass and hold the mouse button. Your character will slowly walk and count steps more visibly.
When you're struggling with an X-marks-the-spot map, one of the best landmarks you can use to position yourself are those bright red plants.
When shooting an enemy ship, aim for the top deck if they're firing back. This will knock other players and skeletons off the cannons. If they aren't shooting you, aim below the water line so they take more damage.
If a harpoon latches onto your ship, you can quickly cut the line by slashing at the harpoon gun with a sword, or hitting it with a bullet.
What are some good resources for new players?
An interactive map that can help with riddles, tall tales, finding certain animals, and MUCH more. A must bookmark for every player.
PhuzzyBond's Youtube Channel. Dude is a Sea of Thieves genius and makes tons of great guides, such as how to win battles as a solo player.
Optimal sail positions for each ship in different wind conditions.

I hope that covers everything. If you have any questions, let me know! I'll try to answer them.

submitted by Thopterthallid to Seaofthieves [link] [comments]

Can a tightly sealed room run out of Oxygen or build harmful levels of Carbon Dioxide?

Context: My bedroom faces a busy street and noise levels make it very difficult to get a good night's sleep with stray dogs barking/howling through the night (a common sight in small towns of India), and it's super loud (city administration completely apathetic to the problem, and no dog shelter in town). The biggest culprit for the noise was two sets of 4'x4' windows in my room, although one of these window sets was completely blocked by my wardrobe. The house is about 35 years old, and there were definitely some tiny gaps in the window frame. My dad consulted with an architect friend (although I had doubts on his competency/knowledge level) and he suggested to seal the windows off with solid concrete slabs. There was about a 5 inch ledge between where the windows end and where rest of the walls end, and so both the window sets were completely sealed off with solid concrete slabs, and now the facade basically looks like one giant wall.
This has stopped the noise problem, but I'm deeply worried about whether this can lead to low O2 levels in the room, and/or harmful levels of CO2 buildup in the room. Ever since the pandemic, I spend vast majority of my time in my room (almost the entire 24 hours on many days, including eating, sleeping, and working/studying). Now I never really opened the window before (back when I could), but like I had said there were definitely some tiny gaps in the frame. The only remaining openings to the outside world now are a ~1 inch diameter hole for the broadband cable and satellite tv cable, the bedroom door which connects to my house's hallway and has a visible gap between its bottom and the floor, and my bathroom door which although doesn't have any visible gaps in the frame but if I keep it open then my bathroom does have two openings to the outside world separated only by some wire meshing so it's basically a source of fresh air.
Now assuming I keep both my doors shut at all times (especially during sleeping hours) and the only opening that remains is that tiny hole for cables, and I stay mostly in the room, can that be a serious problem wrt to low O2 levels in the room, and/or harmful levels of CO2 buildup? Would keeping both doors open during non-sleeping hours (need it shut while sleeping) mitigate any potential problem? Although I would definitely prefer keeping the bedroom door shut at all times for privacy. If that does mitigate the problem, is 8 hours of completely airtight room (I know it's not really fully airtight, but quite airtight) during sleep hours also a potential health hazard? I do have ceiling fans in my room (quite common in India), not sure if turning them on (they are on most of the time) really does anything wrt air composition in the room. Even if the potential health risk is miniscule, I don't want to take any chances. If there is a health risk with this new set-up, do you suggest we get rid of the concrete slabs, i.e., back to status quo and the noise issue is back? Or am I overthinking this and O2/CO2 ratio can never really be a problem as the room is not really airtight? Please try and answer for all scenarios, i.e., a) assume both doors are shut at all times and I stay mostly in the room, is that a health risk? (preferred scenario as others would work if this works); b) I keep both doors closed during sleeping hours and keep one or both doors open during rest of the day (only bathroom one preferably), is that enough to mitigate any potential risks with scenario a?; c) I keep both doors closed during sleeping hours and spend rest of my time in living room as both a & b are potential health risks; d) All situations pose a health risk and we should just get rid of the slabs. Like I had said, the tiny hole is omnipresent in all scenarios. The answers I found online were suggesting O2 doesn't change much, but CO2 can increase to harmful levels in closed rooms (as airtight as realistically possible). If that is indeed the case, then will my room ever regain normal air composition (proper O2 and CO2) levels even if I open my doors from time to time with the tiny hole omnipresent? Or will the CO2 levels keep rising (subsequently O2 drops) for many days to a point that it can cause permanent damage (to brain or some other organs) without me realizing, or even death? Assume that I never physically leave the room for many days/weeks.
Please refrain from suggesting there were other options to solve the noise issue, what's done is done, and I would prefer keeping the slabs unless there is an actual health risk wrt the air quality in the room. Replacing current windows with new double-glazed ones was another option to solve the noise issue, but that was way more expensive and time-consuming. Besides a properly installed one would be airtight too, albeit giving me an option to open it which I never did anyway with my regular windows either. I am experiencing some tightening in my muscles since the work was completed yesterday and very mild breathlessness, but I should admit that I'm a textbook overthinker and do suffer from severe OCD and anxiety. I also checked for room CO2/O2 monitors on Amazon, and even the cheapest ones with bad reviews are way too expensive and beyond my budget. And although seeing some readings would definitely solve my worries, I'm certain my parents won't help me out with that and just blame it on my OCD and say I'm overthinking (which I know I am). I did check my Sp02 on a good quality finger oximeter (which we bought coz Covid) and it was a very strong ~98-99% after hours in the room.
Sorry if this was a bit long, but I try being as detailed as possible to get a satisfactory solution/conclusion. Please help me out. Would highly appreciate if all the concerns raised via boldening are addressed. Cheers. ELI5: Can a tightly sealed room run out of Oxygen or build harmful levels of Carbon Dioxide?
submitted by sidm94 to architecture [link] [comments]

PSA (For DS3): avoid high SP hazard 3 missions at all costs

TLDR: use this excel spreadsheet to calculate your strategy for a stage.
TLDR2: do hazard level 3, but only go for 2000-3000 SP hazard 3 missions, except for the last one. See below for how it is applied to lightspeed IV.
As u/conradbilly mentioned in his guide , you should almost always do hazard 3 missions for their higher coin payout. This is because the best way to avoid running into a paywall is to maximize your syndicate coin earnings.
That advice is good. But nowhere close to optimal.
This is because even for the same stage and the same chapter, not all hazard 3 missions are created equal for Drive Syndicate 3.
For example, Lightspeed Chase IV, has the following different possible payout configurations for hazard level 3 missions:
Now consider that Lightspeed IV is completed at 25k SP, and the ratio becomes significant.
In other words, there is a 4k coin difference in the syndicate coins you earn from the stage, amounting to 2-3 car bps! You might not think it is a lot, but it could mean the difference between progressing and not progressing in the drive syndicate.
In order to refresh the mission list, you have two methods: - (Recommended after Lightspeed): logout on your asphalt app, switch racer accounts, and then switch back. (For example, I switched between my iOS game center account and my facebook account) - (more convenient, recommended for Lightspeed): pick a hazard level 1 mission, and then fail it (this is as easy as starting the mission, then tapping “quit race”)
Now, we can do even better than 13333 for Lightspeed IV when it comes to syndicate coins. This is because of the following fact: missions that complete the stage keep their syndicate coin payouts. In other words, if you are at 24999/25000 from completing the stage, the hazard 3 mission that normally carries the 5250 SP and 2000 coin payout will instead carry 1SP but keep its 2000 coin payout.
This means the optimal strategy for Lightspeed IV is as follows: - 11 of the 2250 SP missions (gets you to 24750) - followed by 1 of the 5250 SP hazard 3 mission, which is now marked down to 250 SP.
This strategy gives you 15200 syndicate coins for Lightspeed IV, significantly more than the ~11000 you would get on average without this strategy.
In other words, while you can’t control your luck with the blueprint packs, you can control how many of them you can afford to open. To guarantee progression in Drive syndicate, this strategy should definitely be used and abused.
submitted by dragom7 to Asphalt9 [link] [comments]

All the Fresh DnB for your New Year celebrations! Check out the reviews and support the artists! [+weekly updated Spotify playlist] | New Music Monday! (Week 52)

 
Weekly updated Spotify Playlist H2L: New Drum & Bass
Soundcloud Playlist H2L: New Drum & Bass Soundcloud
Youtube Playlist H2L: New Drum & Bass Youtube
Retroactive Spotify Playlist **H2L: Retroactive New DnB
Last Week's list http://reddit.com/khfgph
 

Picks Of The Week (by u/lefuniname)

1. Used - Where I Belong [usedmusic]

Recommended if you like: Andromedik, Murdock, Subsonic
Welcome to the last releases thread of this year! It has been a year of ups and downs. Well, mostly downs. But there was one major up for me: becoming a part of the weekly releases crew and writing these release reviews. I am still utterly overwhelmed by all the supportive comments and messages the team and I have received for these threads. I would write these even if I didn't have an audience, but seeing that people actually read and sometimes even enjoy wasting their time reading it makes it all so much more worth it for me. Big ups to every single one of you!
Fittingly, the first release I'm covering talks a lot about what happened this year. There has been a sharp increase in DnB tracks with lyrics that are obviously inspired about the various shitty things that happened this year, from Millbrook - Echoes to Andromedik - Break Away. However, there's not many tracks that are as direct about their feelings towards 2020 as this one is.
I'm of course talking about Used's newest single Where I Belong. Even though Used is in many ways still a newcomer, including that he has only been around as a producer since around 2016 and that he has only released a handful of songs, he is also in many ways more established than some other producers that have been around for longer. The belgian prodigy's first big hit, Mistakes, has recently hit 2 million streams on Spotify and has over the years become a straight-up anthem that the whole of Belgium can sing along to.
Used isn't just any old, or in this case young I guess, producer though. He not only writes and sings his own vocals, he also plays multiple instruments, including the violin and the piano. Oh yeah, by the way, he's also mainly a Jump Up producer. I'm sure I've lost a few of you already, but I assure you that Used is certainly one of the more interesting ones out there and definitely worth your time.
Not only is he quite the multi-talent musically, he is also the producer with the highest hit-to-release ratio I've seen in the last few years. Since Mistakes, every single track he released is an instant anthem that a majority of people at a rave could sing along to. After the trilogy of personal tracks about one of his own breakups that were Mistakes, Come Back Home and Better On My Own, Used strayed off the beaten path and decided to change the subject for this next single while still remaining personal. This time the topic is something we can all relate to: a longing for a return to normal. A longing for a rave, just any rave.
While his biggest hits so far were very personal, they still had a certain distance to the artist himself. This is not the case for his newest single Where I Belong. In it, he speaks his heart out about how much the lockdown and the cancellation of all the shows and festivals have affected him. "No therapist can do, what the live show's done." - Biggest mood of the year. Right below that on the "big mood top 10" you can find the previous line: "I can't even remember a single thing that happened between March and December". As mentioned earlier, I've heard quite a few lockdown inspired tunes lately, but none have felt quite as deeply personal as this one.
These relatable af lyrics are of course performed by himself, alternating between rapped and sung verses. The shortest description for the instrumental I could come up with is Andromedik meets Fox Stevenson. A fun Jump Up inspired Liquicity type beat, with violins and pianos, all played and produced by himself. In the second drop the jumpy beat is stripped back a lot and the violins take centre stage, further driving home the melancholy of it all. I like songs that make me feel things and this is one of them.
Big recommendation for my fellow vocal dnb fans out there.

2. Various Artists - Various single releases [All kinds of labels]

Recommended if you like: Drums, Basses
Due to Christmas, we sadly don't have much time for more deep dives (except for the Hidden Gem section below). Luckily, not a whole lot of people released something this week anyway. Loads of yearly compilations once again, but mostly just repackaging of older tunes. But there are still quite a few tracks and EPs I want to quickly mention at least, just to give you a quick overview over the neat stuff that did get released.
On the Dancefloor side of things we've got Protostar's remix of the Darren Styles classic Us Against The World, as part of the Monstercat Christmas remix saga. If you ever wondered how Happy Hardcore DnB would sound like, this is for you. If you like something more laid back and maybe more asian (who knows), I've got just the thing for you. Japanese Electro Rock Band The Game Shop, who from time to time do dabble in DnB, released a remix EP of one of their earliest hits Everything Is OK. My favorite remix of the bunch by far is the one by Osaka-based producer Mountain. I will never get enough of his Miami Vice funk type of drum and bass.
From the chill side of dancefloor we take it down another notch to Liquid. One of the most underrated czech producer duos out there, Ripple, released a really neat free download Words that is sure to calm you down if the festivities stressed you out. Watch out for that album they've got coming up! If you need even more c h i l l, there's also the lovely Emotions single by my fellow german countryman and multi-genre producer PLTX. Big up the Dresden gang.
Let's take it down even further. To the Deep side of things. My favorite release on that side is probably Rift's Can't Stop EP on Differential Recordings. Especially Never Last and the Phobetor Rift & Petroll VIP did it for me. Great stuff as always from Rift and Differential. Need For Mirrors also released a very interesting track this week: Patience, a collab with vocalist Fusion. In true Need For Mirrors fashion it's one of those tracks that you cannot really compare to anything else. Definitely one of the more uplifting NFM tunes though.
This week was also great for Deep DnB compilations. First off we've got the The Frontliners Vol. 1 compilation on Propaganda011, which I only found because it features a DnB track by a Bass House producer I fell in love with the last few months: Kage. I'm very glad I did find this though, my favorites were the tunes by Mew Zu, Point 4, Sub Mortal and, of course, Kage. Next up we got V Recordings's yearly compilation Planet V Vol. 4. Not a whole lot of new tracks, but the few new ones Bryan Gee blessed us with are well worth your time. L-Side and Command Strange, Makoto and Paul T & Edward Oberon, Alibi, Beat Merchants, all these are featured and deliver the good stuff, as expected.
Lastly (in the deep section), I want to mention the Christmas present that is the SANTA FIGHTS SOME MONSTERS LP on my newcomer label SIN.FULL Maze. And the incredible LP name isn't even the best part of it! 16 free tracks with some of the freshest productions around, by some of the most unknown names around too. I can't even recommend specific tunes, it's all so interesting. Just listen to it all If you only care about streaming (guilty as charged), I was assured that this one will also come to Spotify, probably next month. Which is good, because I need all of these in my playlists, like now.
Hey, nice, we have arrived at the Neuro section! A clear highlight this week was the release of the album that puts the funk back in Neurofunk: Mean Teeth's Bring Back The Funk LP. If you have closely followed their excellent album preview EPs over the years since the Estonian and Lithuanian duo started this project, you won't find that many new tracks on this finished album, but it's still very much worth your time. Great remasters of their biggest tunes to date and collaborations with NickBee and Volatily Cycle for those who are up-to-date, for everyone else a whole 20 amazing tracks of the funkiest of the funk Neurofunk awaits you. For those who like their dnb even harder, there was also Hallucinator's new Rejects LP on PRSPCT.
One last thing and then I swear to God I'll shut up about this forever. Until next week that is. This week also saw the releases of DJ Hazard's When The Dreams Are Over EP and the long awaited Bou and Mefjus collaboration Wormhole. Not for me personally, but I can't not mention them at least.

3. Particular Shades - Fault Input / String [Watchout Music]

Recommended if you like: Amoss, Notequal, Synergy
You better Watchout, you better not cry, better not pout, I'm telling you why: Hidden Gem Of The Week™ is coming to town!
Rolls right off the tongue, doesn't it? I've got one last present for you guys. This week's pick is Particular Shades - Fault Input / String on Watchout Music. Lots of new names in there. Let's start with the label and work our way to the artist.
Watchout Music is a very very new label. They were founded earlier this year and this is just their second overall release so far. They are a Slovakia-based label focused on showing off the vast amount of talent that can be found in Eastern Europe, more specifically Slovakia and the Czech Republic. If you were active in that specific scene (no judgement if you weren't) in the last 3 years you might remember there being another project with very similar ambitions: dnb.zone. In fact, dnb.zone and Watchout are working very closely together to not just showcase releases by Slovakian producers, but now also release the best ones themselves. Watchout is also collaborating with the czech label SIN.FULL MAZE that I've mentioned earlier and covered for the Notequal EP a few weeks back. If you recognize any of these names, you know that can only mean one thing: Very high quality music. Watchout for this label in the future.
Not convinced yet? Alright alright, let's talk about their newest release then. It comes from the newly established Slovakian producer duo Particular Shades. Previously known in the local scene as the DJs Abbre and Deepthonic, they have now joined forces, expanding their repertoire from "just" DJing to also producing their own tracks. As they are still very new and only have one single other release, it's hard to judge their production too much. But if that one release and this new double single is anything to go by, this certainly won't be the last time we will have heard of them.
This newest release by them is a double single that combines the best of the techy and deep worlds of drum and bass. The first track, Fault Input, is a collaboration with fellow Slovakian trio Notequal. It's a great blend of rolling and shuffling drums, seriously hard-hitting snares and basses that go crazy all over. But my favorite part has got to be the way they worked a old timey computer tutorial sample into the mix. I love documentary or computer generated voice samples. Techy, deep goodness. If this is the faulty input, I don't even want the correct input.
Continuing with the IT-based naming schemes, String is the second half of the double single. This one takes us a bit further away from the techyness, but doubles down on the deep part of it all. A loudly growling bass so deep I can barely hear it in my headphones, a string of equally aggressive but slightly less deep bellows and roars and lots and lots of different sections keep you on your toes as you listen to it.
Can only recommend following both Watchout and Particular Shades in the future!
Other Hidden Gems of this week: - Various Artists - VA AW20 [Sub:Edit Records] - DEZPOT - CORRIDORS OF DEATH PART 13 - Anizo - ANEP01 (what an EP name lol) - MYLK - Chocolate Parfait (KONKAI Remix) - Ci-Energy - Qualia (sadly missed this one on release, definitely worth a belated shout-out imo)

Extra Reviews (by u/jandogearmy)

War – Rebirth / Crofters

War hasn’t been too active in terms of releasing originals in 2020. If you look back at his discography, he never really puts out a lot of solo stuff. War shines in collabs and as a fantastic engineer, having done a lot on the technical side together with Hydro, like their album „Lateral Thinking“ for Utopia Music in 2019. But every now and then, War graces us with some new solo work. After having released the VIPs for Heat and Come Cross in June, the end of the year brings Rebirth/Crofters on Doc Scott’s 31 Recordings. Music on 31 is usually not everyone’s favourite, but if an artist lands there you can usually expect it to be something special.
Rebirth has a rather unusual sounding, noticeably clipped kickdrum. To me, this sound carries the track as it stands out so much from the clean samples often used in a lot of tracks. The bassline in this tune has a fair bit of midrange, which is also something special for War’s music, because he has mastered the game of sub basses and used a lot of deeper basslines over the last couple of years. The top layer of percussion is built by some clanky percussion, and some space filled with a quite monotone pad. At no point does the tune slow down, there are only eight bars without percussion.
Crofters is a bit more subtle, but by no means less efficient on the dancefloor. Strong metallic sounding percussion and a deeper bassline and get this tune going, while it has a lot more atmosphere than Rebirth. Two different, heavily processed vocal samples dance around a bunch of constantly evolving pads, adding for a sometimes sparse, sometimes dense sounding atmosphere. The occasional dub alarm adds sparkle on top.
This one isn't my favourite War release, since a lot of the past output felt a lot deeper and these two tracks feel more like DJ tools to me, but they also got their place and are good in their that role.

Crypticz – Between Dust & Time LP (Western Lore)

Crypticz is an artist very little people pay attention to, despite him being immensely good at doing what he does: subtle, special and super strong tracks, not so much aimed at the dancefloor, but rewarding the patient and mindful listener. The first entry on his discogs page dates back to 2013, and on his way through music he put out releases with 31 Recordings, Different Music and Cosmic Bridge, to name a few. His contribution for Om Unit’s Cosmology: Dark Matter compilation, a track named Chrysalis featuring Any Kisnorbo on the vocals, was one of my favourite tunes I discovered in 2019, and I listened to it countless times.
Between Dust & Time is not a drum and bass album. It’s barely even a jungle album in the sense of what most people expect when hearing the word jungle. This body of work to me feels more like an ambient or dub album that loosely fits into a jungle context, but takes the term "jungle" to a very abstract meaning. There won’t be any significant DJ tools in this one, its purpose is away from the dancefloor. If you value music beyond its meaning in a set, this album is for you.
Broadcast Feeling, the opening tune, sets the general sound for the following 48 minutes very well. The track opens with an intricate soundscape of pads, ambient drums, field recordings, and a bass hinting at what will come later on. This soundscape takes its time to develop, and at around four minutes, a sudden short amen burst darkens the mood and foreshadows what’s next to come. At 04:36, the main section of this piece starts, if one can even call it that, as the long intro is just as much of a highlight as the part with drums and a deep 808 sub bass.
Ocean Blue features Amy Kisnorbo, who also did the vocals for Crypticz‘ 2019 track „Chrysalis“. Her ethereal voice is not so much a foreground lead element, but gets treated like an instrument that is part of the atmosphere built by the pads in this track. The beautiful soundscape might as well stand on its own as an ambient work, but it gets underlaid by a drum break that I don’t know the name of.
Lakutala (Version) sits at around 160 bpm, but feels slower due to the drum pattern being half as quick as in the average jungle tune. The drums feel quite lo-fi, and this effect gets reinforced by some noise getting layered underneath.
The Guided starts with a sample recorded in a forest, and some tribal percussion with spring reverb on it, an effect commonly used in dub music. After about one minute a vocal joins the percussions and ambient forest noises, with a sub bass already announcing itself, only for the percussion to get filtered out again at around 01:40, the vocal sample ending, and the track leading into a snareless halftime soundscape, carried by a delay effect messing with the vocal sample and occasional pads. The sub bass carries the rhythm most noticeably in this one. Later on a sparsely used middle eastern string instrument delivers extra ear candy.
Journey Through The Rings Of Saturn doesn’t contain any driving percussion. No kicks and snares in this one. Hats and some tribal drums are the only impact sounds, the shining star of this track are its pads. They start out ever so quiet and become louder and more expressive, developing and forming a soundscape over the four minutes of the tune. The bass seems far away in this tune, until it turns into a reverbed and filtered reese in the second half. The tune closes with some quiet bells.
Nightshifter’s Groove features the usual long intro we’ve come to expect after the previous tunes on the album, most of them having the intro take half of the track. But this time it isn’t just forming a soundscape, but leads into a rhythm driven by a lowpassed kick with lots of space for the tribal drums to keep on coming with more layers and details, and even adding an oldschool break on top. The drum layers are the shining star of this track.
Lakutala (the non-version of it) is exactly a minute longer, and features a „full-time“ jungle pattern instead of the stripped back halftime pattern of its version. The atmosphere remains the same, and with the 808 bass underneath, this one might even work as a tune on the dancefloor – a rare exception for this album. Despite having a more traditional jungle arrangement, it still manages to stand out by paying close attention to making the drum programming and effects as unique as possible and having separate spaces for the pads to breathe on their own, without fighting with the drums. Pads also deserve appreciation on their own.
Memories Fade As I Drift Away, the closing track, once again doesn’t use any major drums, only some heavily reverbed hats and foley samples along with some pads and a field recording of someone walking next to a road, gently bringing this absolute journey of an album to an end.
 

New Releases

submitted by TELMxWILSON to DnB [link] [comments]

Sociopathic Bears and Zombie Fish

In Alaska, I met a naturalist who told me about sociopathic bears.
During spawning season, the rivers are chock full of salmon struggling against the current. They do this until they are just about to die, whereupon they release their “product” and shuffle off the mortal coil. The stronger they are, the further they get, the best milt inseminating the best roe. Thus natural selection unfolds.
These are not salmon you want to eat. The fresh water fucks up their flesh, so that by the end of their journey they look like zombie fish and smell just as bad. But bears love them, and the good news is that there are millions of these fish trying to live out their natural purpose. So bears come down from the hills to jam as many as they can into their gullet before it’s time to hibernate. In fact, bears are compelled by their own natural calling to do this. Sometimes you will see one by the river half-heartedly swiping his claws at the water, though his eyes are clearly saying “Jesus Christ, I’m full.”
Before you get carried away, this is not an analogy about market shorts being gluttons for rotten shit nobody else wants.
It’s also not analogy about retail investors swimming upstream until they die or get eaten.
Those are for another day.
In their world, each bear has an implied territory and if another bear gets within range, they take it very seriously. When this happens, they will stop what they are doing, make threatening moves and so on. If neither bear stands down, it’s go time. During spawning season this poses a problem because there are a lot of fish but only so much river, and it’s pretty common for a sort-of-hungry, more-kind-of-peckish bear to shamble down and accidentally enter the territorial radius of another. Suddenly, both are faced with a standoff neither expected. Both of them know that there’s no real reason to fight – there’s plenty to go ‘round - so this usually ends with the encroaching bear being like, “Sorry bruv, my bad,” walking an appropriate distance downriver and all is well. Sometimes, though, one of the bears is like, “Hey, is that Carl? Fuck you, Carl!”, and the threats escalate. Then a throwdown happens, all teeth and claws, until one of them runs away.
Thems the rules of bear society.
Sometimes a bear is big and aggressive and pushes his luck. Sometimes a bear is small and cowardly, and never does. Sometimes a bear is just young or dumb, doesn’t realize he’s breaking the rules and gets clobbered when he doesn’t expect it.
But there is another kind of particularly fucked-up bear. This bear fully understands the rules of bear society and knows how events will unfold depending on how he acts. He knows other bears generally won’t fight unless they have to because they don’t want to get hurt. He knows the reasons to fight are particularly low at this time of year.
He’s also a lazy motherfucker who doesn’t want to do the work of catching fish himself.
So this smart, lazy bear will stand downriver from another bear he can see but is out of territorial range. The moment that other bear catches a fish, he will run towards it aggressively. Now, this other bear who thought everything was chill sees this other bear suddenly coming at him and is like, “Oh shit!” He drops the fish he just caught and rears up, bracing himself for a throwdown against this charging psychopath. But the lazy bear isn’t coming in for a fight. No. Instead, he snatches the fish and just runs away. This leaves the other bear, sans salmon, completely flummoxed at what just happened. It takes him a little while to get over the audacity of that asshole to get back to what he was doing.
The naturalist explained that within social mammal groups, there are always roughly 4% that act in such bald and selfish way, fully grasping social convention but manipulating it to maximum advantage. These individuals do not actually feel shame or rejection the way the rest of the group does.
We know them as sociopaths, and they tend to do very, very well until (and unless) their behavior is caught on to and they are culled from the group in some way.
The reason there can only be a ratio of up to one sociopath for every twenty-four “normal” members, he explained, is that this is the most a group can withstand before the social order totally breaks down. No one trusts each other, and everyone is a suspect.
Too many sociopaths in a group, you get the Salem Witch Trials.
​
Once in a while, I meet someone who rocks the pillars of how I view the world. Chris was one of those people.
In the summer of 2007, I was doing pretty well. I had owned my own home for almost two years and had mostly recovered from that particularly massive purchase (any family man who has done the same will know what I am talking about). I had a few months of emergency savings, started a college fund for my kindergartener, had a little money socked away in a 401k, and paid the family car paid off. I had a full-time job and a side hustle, so I didn’t have a lot of spare time. I decided to splurge and hire a guy from Craigslist to mow my lawn.
Enter Chris.
Chris was five years younger than me, but somehow owned 5 houses. He lived with three other guys in one of them and rented the rest out. These guys were real bros, complete with the baseball caps and devil-may-care attitude reminiscent of Bill and Ted - like a fraternity, minus the college. They had no real skills, so they did this yardwork gig for pocket money. Chris was making a killing on the houses.
This was the height of the housing bubble, you see.
Chris explained that every few months or so, he either refinanced or took out another HELOC on the properties, each having appraised 5%, 10% even 20% since the previous time, tens of thousands of dollars at a cycle. Prices kept appreciating, so he kept taking out cash. Chris thought it was hilarious how the banks were practically throwing money at him. He made it a point to put as little of his own money in the properties as possible, drawing them down to the hilt and putting the proceeds into savings accounts. He used multiple banks due to the FDIC limits, which were $100k at the time.
I was blown away. I asked him what would happen when the bill came due? I will never forget his answer or how he said it, with that stupid grin and stupid red cap and stupid sleeveless shirt, standing on my porch that hot summer day:
“When all this ends, they can take the houses, but they can’t take the money.” Then he laughed. “They can’t!”
A year-and-a-half later, I was begging a parking attendant to let me out of the airport parking lot. I had used a credit card to put my car into the garage, the last one that wasn’t maxed out. I had just returned from L.A. for orientation for a job that paid half of the one I’d been laid off from months ago, and while I was there the bank cancelled the card. I had nothing else with which to pay the parking fee, all my other funds having been drained from an accident with an uninsured motorist and the monthly grind of bills that are always due.
I was, for the first time since I had been an adult, absolutely-not-even-two-nickels-to-rub-together fucking broke.
I had never felt so humiliated in my entire life, and this grizzled, hardened, world-weary woman in the booth had my fate in her hands. She could by all rights impound my car, and then I would be in some real hurt.
She assessed me for a long time, then simply opened the gate.
I don’t know whatever happened to Chris. I never got his last name. I imagine him running some sort of hustle somewhere, and I expect he is doing well. Despite my tone, I don’t wish him ill – don’t hate the player, hate the game. This kind of gamesmanship is how people get ahead all the time.
But thirteen years later, I still can’t help but think of him as being somehow lesser than me. This is entirely the sin of self-pride, I know. I can’t help it. He understood what was happening far better than I did – hell, better than most of us did. Despite appearances, he was a shrewd man who grasped that we were on a merry-go-round of stupidity, backed by social norms nowhere close to what the actual consequences of violating them would be. While most of us followed the rules and honored the social contract, we suffered while people like Chris profited. Laughing all the way to the bank, as they say.
So who is the lesser in this equation?
Chris’ outlook and actions were the very definition of Moral Hazard.
Moral Hazard is a term experts throw around when the Plebs find a hole in the system that they can exploit.
​
My last post was received fairly positively, but as with all things internet there were… detractors. There was considerable concern for my lack of faith in the market indices. There was disgust at my telling impressionable young fools to put all their retirement funds into FDs instead of something sensible like an index fund. But most of all, there was desperate need to point out how stupid I was for not having saved enough money to prevent tapping into my 401k when disaster struck. One commenter believed I should have foreclosed on my house before ever touching my retirement fund.
Understand clearly: I own all my choices, past present and future. I take responsibility for all the mistakes and the consequences, and I do not blame “the system” for the situations I found myself in. I do not claim to have made perfect financial choices, but I stand by the choices I made with the information and values I had at the time.
To blame the world for your problems is the ultimate in weakness of character. Doing so is to resign yourself to being a spectator in your own life.
Further, as a point of pride I want to establish that I have honored every contract I have ever entered. I have defaulted on occasion, but I paid back every dime I ever borrowed plus the appropriate interest and fees. I did not have to. I could have let my accounts go to collections and pay 50 cents on the dollar to resolve the debt. I could have walked away from my house when it was $100k underwater. For how long it took to rebuild my credit and recover my losses from what they now call the Great Financial Crisis, it would have been the smart thing to do.
It’s just not how I do things. And if I may be so bold to speak for others, it’s not how most of us to do either.
But as an older, wiser man, I now understand that it is not how everyone does things. There are a considerable number of people – 4%, in fact – that only care about the rules insomuch as how they can benefit from them personally. Not only are they banking on most people following the rules, they understand that those people are unprepared to react when they don’t – and not even have the courtesy to feel bad about it. These predators are ever present, and thus the “normal” among us must remain ever vigilant.
As Machiavelli says, just because you abhor the rules of power does not prevent them from being used against you.
As we watch the drama of PRPL unfold, we can see a social struggle regarding intent play out. Some people are angry, feeling scammed by the champions of this ticker. Others profess a kind of strange fealty, denouncing the angry ones and doubling down on their faith. The champions themselves speak to the faithful, assuring them of their own well-meaning and shared experience. It muddies the waters, and one doesn’t really know what to think.
I don’t pretend to know the motives of these guys. I had no skin in the PRPL game. For all I know, they are fine folk who are simply zealous believers. I have seen this story unfold several times, however.
Regardless of all that, you must own your own decisions. If you chose to back the play and lost money – and some of you lost a lot of money - that is entirely on you. Same goes if you listened to that great WSB prophet Variation_Separate, if you followed Cramer on one of his many shitty plays, or just hit a spinner and clicked “buy”. How you reflect upon this, what you learn from it and how you choose to act upon the lesson are what matters.
Most people are generally good, just trying to provide for their families or perhaps buy a Lambo. But the world is also filled with people who would skin you in a heartbeat if they thought they could sell your hide for a nickel, and they do exceptionally well in a world obfuscated behind corporate entities, computer screens and internet handles. Best not forget that when entering any transaction. That goes doubly so when following the advice of strangers. Even me.
Caveat emptor – buyer beware.
​
In any investment prospectus, you will usually see two phrases: “past performance does not guarantee future results” and “risk of loss up to and including the entire investment.” These are the only real truths in the world of business – perhaps even life. Everything entails risk, even doing nothing. Anything can happen tomorrow. And the world, I’m afraid, is in no shortage of some real and true fuckers.
Rather than allow this reality to paralyze me, it liberates me. Passive investing, in my view, is also no better than being a spectator in one’s own life. This is not to say I’m going to day-trade my life savings on YOLOs, or that I won’t be patient and let certain investments mature. But I refuse to just “Save, Buy, Hold and Diversify” and allow all control to be passed off to the whims of an ever more capricious market. Fool me once and all that.
The more you learn the rules of business and finance, the more you will find opportunities. Some opportunities are illegal, and others you will find distasteful. You should certainly avoid those - you aren’t a sociopath, after all. But you will find many, many tasteful opportunities often disguised as risk and/or hard work. The best of them, I would say, are those where everybody wins.
Some of my previous detractors pointed out that options are a zero-sum game, or as Theta Gang puts it, “the other end of your win is someone else’s loss.” Perhaps. Perhaps. With an ever-increasing NAV of the equities market, I am skeptical of this assertion. Further, I have bought options that expired worthless as part of a strategy I profited from and sold options that I am certain were used to hedge an otherwise profitable position. Besides that, I think it’s worth pointing out that as of 2017 1% of the world owns half the money – and most of the other half aren’t in this market. The likelihood that your winning option just fucked over a fellow retard is far less likely than it is of having sapped a hedge from some fuck who doesn’t know what else to do with all his wealth.
Therefore, I reject the notion that every smile creates a tear when trading options.
Lastly, anyone who tries to quote you the “stable” returns of the S&P 500 should also be made aware of its regular 30%+ YoY swings over the past 60 years. This is not a safe place to park your money, and someone is profiting handsomely from telling people that it is. These are the “Market Makers”, the players buffeting your passively invested retirement funds back and forth like a bowling ball going down a lane with bumpers. They don’t give a shit about what you plan to do with that money in thirty years, just that you put it into the market right fucking now. Don’t ever make the mistake of thinking they have your best interests at heart.
My great sin is believing you shouldn’t let these assholes just have at it with the resources you expect to keep you going into your old age.
It’s hard for a person to really grasp the trillions of dollars at play. Take a pair of night-vision binoculars into the woods on a new moon, look to the sky and you will get a notion. These people and institutions are playing with all that money because they don’t have any idea what to do with it, just that they want more. But by virtue of holding a Social Security Number, you get to sit at the same massive table – and I’m guessing you have a pretty good idea what you would.
So I am going to say it again, because it is worth repeating: we live in a Merchant Republic awash in wealth. Go out and get your fucking slice.
You aren’t special – but neither are they.
I love you retards.
EDIT: Dear mods. I did not fuck the parking attendant. But I would have. God help me, I would have.
submitted by seattle_exile to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Can a tightly sealed room run out of Oxygen or build harmful levels of Carbon Dioxide?

Context: My bedroom faces a busy street and noise levels make it very difficult to get a good night's sleep with stray dogs barking/howling through the night (a common sight in small towns of India), and it's super loud (city administration completely apathetic to the problem, and no dog shelter in town). The biggest culprit for the noise was two sets of 4'x4' windows in my room, although one of these window sets was completely blocked by my wardrobe. The house is about 35 years old, and there were definitely some tiny gaps in the window frame. My dad consulted with an architect friend (although I had doubts on his competency/knowledge level) and he suggested to seal the windows off with solid concrete slabs. There was about a 5 inch ledge between where the windows end and where rest of the walls end, and so both the window sets were completely sealed off with solid concrete slabs, and now the facade basically looks like one giant wall.
This has stopped the noise problem, but I'm deeply worried about whether this can lead to low O2 levels in the room, and/or harmful levels of CO2 buildup in the room. Ever since the pandemic, I spend vast majority of my time in my room (almost the entire 24 hours on many days, including eating, sleeping, and working/studying). Now I never really opened the window before (back when I could), but like I had said there were definitely some tiny gaps in the frame. The only remaining openings to the outside world now are a ~1 inch diameter hole for the broadband cable and satellite tv cable, the bedroom door which connects to my house's hallway and has a visible gap between its bottom and the floor, and my bathroom door which although doesn't have any visible gaps in the frame but if I keep it open then my bathroom does have two openings to the outside world separated only by some wire meshing so it's basically a source of fresh air.
Now assuming I keep both my doors shut at all times (especially during sleeping hours) and the only opening that remains is that tiny hole for cables, and I stay mostly in the room, can that be a serious problem wrt to low O2 levels in the room, and/or harmful levels of CO2 buildup? Would keeping both doors open during non-sleeping hours (need it shut while sleeping) mitigate any potential problem? Although I would definitely prefer keeping the bedroom door shut at all times for privacy. If that does mitigate the problem, is 8 hours of completely airtight room (I know it's not really fully airtight, but quite airtight) during sleep hours also a potential health hazard? I do have ceiling fans in my room (quite common in India), not sure if turning them on (they are on most of the time) really does anything wrt air composition in the room. Even if the potential health risk is miniscule, I don't want to take any chances. If there is a health risk with this new set-up, do you suggest we get rid of the concrete slabs, i.e., back to status quo and the noise issue is back? Or am I overthinking this and O2/CO2 ratio can never really be a problem as the room is not really airtight? Please try and answer for all scenarios, i.e., a) assume both doors are shut at all times and I stay mostly in the room, is that a health risk? (preferred scenario as others would work if this works); b) I keep both doors closed during sleeping hours and keep one or both doors open during rest of the day (only bathroom one preferably), is that enough to mitigate any potential risks with scenario a?; c) I keep both doors closed during sleeping hours and spend rest of my time in living room as both a & b are potential health risks; d) All situations pose a health risk and we should just get rid of the slabs. Like I had said, the tiny hole is omnipresent in all scenarios. The answers I found online were suggesting O2 doesn't change much, but CO2 can increase to harmful levels in closed rooms (as airtight as realistically possible). If that is indeed the case, then will my room ever regain normal air composition (proper O2 and CO2) levels even if I open my doors from time to time with the tiny hole omnipresent? Or will the CO2 levels keep rising (subsequently O2 drops) for many days to a point that it can cause permanent damage (to brain or some other organs) without me realizing, or even death? Assume that I never physically leave the room for many days/weeks.
Please refrain from suggesting there were other options to solve the noise issue, what's done is done, and I would prefer keeping the slabs unless there is an actual health risk wrt the air quality in the room. Replacing current windows with new double-glazed ones was another option to solve the noise issue, but that was way more expensive and time-consuming. Besides a properly installed one would be airtight too, albeit giving me an option to open it which I never did anyway with my regular windows either. I have been experiencing some tightening in my muscles since the work was completed a week ago and very mild breathlessness, but I should admit that I'm a textbook overthinker and do suffer from severe OCD and anxiety. I also checked for room CO2/O2 monitors on Amazon, and even the cheapest ones with bad reviews are way too expensive and beyond my budget. And although seeing some readings would definitely solve my worries, I'm certain my parents won't help me out with that and just blame it on my OCD and say I'm overthinking (which I know I am). I did check my Sp02 on a good quality finger oximeter (which we bought coz Covid) and it was a very strong ~98-99% after hours in the room.
Sorry if this was a bit long, but I try being as detailed as possible to get a satisfactory solution/conclusion. Please help me out. Would highly appreciate if all the concerns raised via boldening are addressed. Cheers.
submitted by sidm94 to TooAfraidToAsk [link] [comments]

hazard ratio definition video

Cox proportinal hazards model using SPSS (survival ... How to calculate relative risk - YouTube Hazard ratio - YouTube Cox regression in R Mortality rates - what you really need to know - YouTube Hazards and risks - YouTube Hazard and Risk -- What's the difference? - YouTube

Das Hazard Ratio als deskriptives Maß für den Unter-schied von Überlebenszeiten wird erläutert. Schlussfolgerungen: Wenn nicht spezielle Verfahren bei der Analyse von Überlebenszeitdaten eingesetzt oder de-ren Annahmen nicht überprüft werden, können die Ergeb-nisse fehlerhaft sein. Der Leser einer wissenschaftlichen Publikation sollte diese Fallstricke kennen und beurteilen können, ob Wikipedia (0.00 / 0 votes) Rate this definition: Hazard ratio. In survival analysis, the hazard ratio (HR) is the ratio of the hazard rates corresponding to the conditions described by two levels of an explanatory variable. For example, in a drug study, the treated population may die at twice the rate per unit time as the control population. The hazard ratio would be 2, indicating higher hazard of death from the treatment. Hazard ratios differ from relative risks (RRs) and odds ratios (ORs In this case the Hazard Ratio is the ratio between the mortality rate in the group of patients exposed to smoke and the mortality rate in the mortality rate in the group of subjects exposed to high-calorie diet. The hazard ratio is the ratio of (chance of an event occurring in the treatment arm)/ (chance of an event occurring in the control arm) (20 ). The HR has also been defined as, the ratio of (risk of outcome in one group)/ (risk of outcome in another group), occurring at a given interval of time ( 21 ). 5) Das Hazard-Ratio ist zeitabhängig. 6) Die log-log-Überlebenskurven sind eher ungeeignet, um auf grafischem Wege zu beurteilen, ob das Hazard-Ratio zeitabhängig ist oder nicht. Hazard ratio synonyms, Hazard ratio pronunciation, Hazard ratio translation, English dictionary definition of Hazard ratio. abbr. 1. heart rate 2. House of Representatives 3. home rule 4. home run 5. human resources American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fifth... Hazard ratio (HR) is a measure of an effect of an intervention on an outcome of interest over time. Hazard ratio is reported most commonly in time-to-event analysis or survival analysis (i.e. when we are interested in knowing how long it takes for a particular event/outcome to occur). Kurzgefasst bezeichnet das Hazard die momentane Sterberate für eine Gruppe von Patienten. Das Hazard Ratio ist ein Quotient aus den Hazards von zwei Gruppen und gibt an, um wie viel die Sterberate... Die Hazard Ratio (oder Hazard Rate) entspricht dem Verhältnis der Hazard Raten zweier Gruppen. Die Hazard Ratio (HR) wird häufig bei klinischen Studien verwendet. Sie gibt das Risikoverhältnis zwischen verschiedenen Behandlungsgruppen an. Dabei wird das Risiko einer Behandlungsgruppe zum Risiko einer 2. Gruppe in Relation gesetzt. Als Beispiel: Bei einer klinischen Studie werden die Abheilungsraten einer Erkrankung erfasst. Während in der Kontrollgruppe II 50% der Patienten abheilen In biostatistics, the calculated likelihood that a particular intervention will make a study outcome more or less likely to occur. A hazard ratio of 1.0 indicates that the variable has no impact on the outcome. A hazard ratio of less than 1.0 indicates that the variable decreases the likelihood of the outcome. A ratio exceeding 1.0 indicates that the variable increases the likelihood of the outcome. A ratio of 2.0 suggests that the variable doubles the likelihood of the outcome. A ratio of 0

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Cox proportinal hazards model using SPSS (survival ...

The Definition of the Hazard Function in Survival Analysis - Duration: 6:26. Eric Cai 44,413 views. ... Kaplan Meier curve and hazard ratio tutorial (Kaplan Meier curve and hazard ratio made simple!) What's the difference between a hazard and a risk? Video describing how relative risk is calculated from a cohort study. RR is just a ratio of incidence of the outcome in the exposed divided by the incidence ... Hazard ratio - YouTube. In survival analysis, the hazard ratio (HR) is the ratio of the hazard rates corresponding to the conditions described by two levels of an explanatory variab... What is risk, and what's the difference between hazard and risk? It's pretty important when it comes to decisions that affect your health and safety.An upda... Mortality rates are among the most important indicators in epidemiology. They are used in order to express the risk of dying of a certain disease. In this sh... This video provides a demonstration of the use of the Cox proportional hazards model using SPSS. The data comes from a demonstration of this model within the...

hazard ratio definition

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